March 12, 2004

Russell Crowe’s shoulder just changed the entire flavor of next fall…

With Cinderella Man officially out of the Oscar race, Warner Bros.' The Aviator becomes the clear favorite - with major stars, a historic subject, Scorsese, and Harvey Weinstein running the awards campaign.

But what is really interesting is that the only other big movies this fall that could be contenders are Oliver Stone’s Alexander and Joel Schumacher’s The Phantom of The Opera. So suddenly, movies like Closer, The Terminal, Vanity Fair, Kinsey, The Life Aquatic, The Manchurian Candidate, The Motorcycle Diaries, An Unfinished Life, Collateral, and Shall We Dance all got a little more serious as finalists. And The Passion of The Christ probably just got a couple of hundred votes closer to a Best Picture nomination. (For those of you who are hoping, only a $100 million-plus response to Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind will allow it to be in any way a contender… and even then…)

That’s a list of fourteen as of today. Jim Brooks’ Spanglish could make fifteen. Or not. Motorcycle Diaries is the only Sundance film with a shot at being anything. Cannes could have a surprise or two. But that’s about it.

Of the fourteen, three Warner Bros. movies are in the lead. DreamWorks, Focus and Miramax have two each. Columbia, Disney, Fox Searchlight, Newmarket and Paramount each has one. Lions Gate will be looking to buy something that can compete. Fox will be happy to thrive this summer.

The other big question coming out of the exit of Cinderella Man is, “Where will Tony Angellotti land?” I have no doubt that Tony will be back at Universal to do Cinderella Man, The Producers and anything else they have coming down the pike in 2005. But it would be a bit of a shock if one of the industry’s few Oscar specialists withered on the vine this next season… and Universal has nothing left to even pretend he needs to do. Paramount would make a lot of sense, if Tony is willing to put up with Scott Rudin. Searchlight could use a strong Oscar hand in addition to their enthusiastic, talented troop… but they don’t spend the kind of money that would allow Tony anything but frustration. Same with Newmarket, where Mr. Gibson will surely run the show if they go after the gold. Disney had Robin Jonas helping Johnny Depp and others this year and could make the effort to get Murray his “make-up” Oscar next year and Tony could make that happen… if Bill Murray is willing to help. And Columbia will have to decide whether the marriage of Val Van Galder and Mike Nichols will work. (I’d bet on that one.)

I have nothing but gut instinct to go on here, but I have to say, the movie that could put the fear of God into a lot of these wannabes is Schumacher’s Phantom. If it’s good… and casting for talent instead of just fame is a very good sign… it is a form of musical we haven’t seen in a long, long time, it’s a director who is well-liked in town, and it has proven to be hugely popular, like Chicago, with the audience that profiles just like the Academy. And unlike The Last Samurai, which was in the same release slot this last season, it doesn’t have to break the bank to be seen as a hit.

And, by the way, of this group only Motorcycle Diaries and Kinsey will be Indie Spirit eligible next year. Wes Anderson’s The Life Aquatic, David O. Russell’s I Heart Huckabees and Alexander Payne’s Sideways will all be too expensive to qualify unless the IFP changes their rules… which will make for a very interesting year for the indies. All Napoleon Dynomite and no Bill Murray might make Dawn Hudson a dull girl. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the IFP finally acknowledge the seismic shift in the indie world and separate the dependents from the rest of the crowd somehow.

Geez…. I feel like a sugar junkie who just had his first piece of pie in a couple of weeks. I like it, but I fear that I might throw up.

Finally, with the brevity that they deserve, Spartan is an earnest near miss by David Mamet, more like Homicide than any of his other movies. If you really like Mamet, it is well worth the trip. But if your significant other does not, he or she will surely end up wandering down the hall to another screen at the multiplex by the end of the first act.

Agent Cody Banks: Destination London is perhaps the saddest excuse for a sequel ever put on film. In place of the Hilary Duff lollipop and Angie Harmon catsuits, you get 23-year-old S-Club 7 member Hannah Spearritt, looking oddly like she just walked off either a museum field trip or a boring porn set, and Anthony Anderson as The Negro. And when I say that, I mean, this guy is shucking and jiving through every second of screen time he gets, looking for all the world like he was improvising everything but a way off this lousy movie. Honestly, he was better off with the kangaroo. (God bless him for being in a position to take the money and run…. But run faster nest time, Anthony.) Really, this looks like the knockoff sequel that gets made when some low-end indie buys a movie title for a sequel and does it for less than half the cost of the original in the great tradition of Wild Things 2, Cruel Intentions 2 and The Jungle Book 2. (Oh… sorry.) Pity the quality English actors (2 or 3 of them) who took double scale to do a movie that they hoped would make them more bankable and even the never-before-seen hambones who got paid in Skittles. I must admit… the niece had a good time. And I love her for seeing the good in all things. She deserves better too.

I haven’t seen Secret Window, but I hear that it doesn’t hurt.

Have a lovely weekend.

E ME: If you will…