March 17, 2004

And now, the other side of yesterday’s column …

I’m going to load up on some letters that came in yesterday regarding Hellboy and then I will respond in some depth. I am picking letters from longtime readers for whom I have some respect. These are not, with due respect to the fanboys, fanboy responses.

But before I get to the letters, a hint of what is to come. American Idol had a two hour show last night. A half dozen movies were advertised, including demographic mismatches like Disney’s The Ladykillers and The Whole Ten Yards, the latter of which is not being released until April 9. Hellboy should be fine with teenage boys, but definitely needs some help with the young women who populate the majority of the rabid American Idol audience. There was no Hellboy ad, touting Selma Blair and the love between the sexy little fire starter and the big red guy with the cigar and shaved horns. If not there, when? Next week, I am afraid, will be way too late.

And now…

THE OTHER McG writes: “I still haven't found anyone in my circle of friends who even seems like a candidate to go see this movie with me. I loved the first trailer I saw, and am happy to hear it reported that it's an entertaining movie. There seems to be a mindset that it looks "dumb" though. I wonder if it's because there are no stars? Daredevil looked dumb and was dumb, but it seemed like people gave it a chance because of it's cast. It'll be interesting to see if Hellboy lures the doubters with a bigger campaign.”

LATE YEAR GUY goes: “Now, I’m pumped to see the movie. Before I thought whatever. Didn’t excite me, and I’m not sure the spots help the movie or make it any more distinguishable from LXG. But if you say it’s great, then I’ll check it out.”

THE DEUCE writes: “I'm pleasantly shocked by your review. Based on the trailer and the ads, I had written the movie off, because it looks fucking lousy. "They're back!" Who's back? And who cares? What the fuck is that alien-looking thing? Why should I spend 100 minutes of my life with a big red pimple? There is no evidence of the wit, creativity, or other positives you describe... it feels like a knockoff of The League of Exturdinary Gentlemen. And why would they duplicate that experience?”

THE FRIED ONE writes: “Because of today's article, I would now like to see Hellboy. I was never a comic book genre movie fan, but have always been won over by tagging along with guy friends who were. Way back to Batman, I wasn't that interested, but one of my best male friends was and he took me and I loved it. Same with X-men -- had no interest, but went with a male friend and loved it. Saw Spidey mostly cause I know the FX people who work on it and it looked like fun. (Though I have to say about 20 minutes in I wanted to yell, "hey! what's with all the character development?! Let's get to the action!!")

So now you are my guy friend who is convincing me to see Hellboy. I thought the trailers were not quite enough to get me on their own, so thanks for the push.”

FROM INDUSTRY PRO: “must say your review of hellboy is leaving me very optimistic about the film...i hadnt heard anything about it until today...”

And finally, this from ANOTHER OLD BIZ PAL: “Sorry, Dave, not interested in "Hellboy" before, or after, your column. You seemed to equally wax positive on the boxoffice potential for "Win a Date with Tad Hamilton" and "Rundown." Nuff said. "Hellboy" will make a good DVD rental. At least "The Matrix" had Keanu. No matter how good he is, Ron Perlman is no opener. It may do $75-100 million -- ditto "The Punisher." One man's opinion. Enjoy your Bermuda trip.”

DAVID RESPONDS TO ALL…

The last note cuts the deepest, though like all things, every movie has its own life. What The Rundown and Win A Date With Tad Hamilton share is that they both failed to find their market. In the case of The Rundown, The Rock ended up being almost as much a hindrance as a help. MGM doesn’t seem remotely concerned about resting an entire film on The Rock’s shoulders, but it may well be that The Rundown gross of $48 million might satiate the folks at MGM though, obviously, they’d love more. And Tad Hamilton - no stars, an advertising subtext that leaned more gay than giggly girl and the suicidal choice to take a girl movie up against Ashton Kutcher ended that film life before it ever had a chance.

As for Hellboy, the lack of traction on the film as of now, two weeks and two days out, combined with an apparent unwillingness by Columbia and Revolution to buy their way out of this predicament, suggests that we are looking at a film that will underperform what I think it should be able to do. I would go so far as to suggest that it can open at $15 million (though it's going to have to do some heavy lifting to get into double digits as of now) and will do an unusually good multiple and top out around $60.

I know… that’s a long way from yesterday’s $150 million plus. But that’s the number we should be talking about. Looking back at last year, the magic “We can make this happen” number seems to have been $100 million - $130 million. Daredevil, Daddy Day Care, How To Lose A Guy In 10 Days, Freaky Friday, S.W.A.T., Something’s Gotta Give, Bringing Down The House and Anger Management were all movies that had home runs in marketing… four of them from Columbia, I might point out.

And I’ve got news for you, not a single one of those titles was as good a movie as Hellboy. I enjoyed, passably, all but a couple of those titles. But Hellboy is a new movie experience, even as a pure genre movie. Hellboy should at least be at The Fast & The Furious levels. But it may have to settle for Blade numbers, even though it is assiduously PG-13 and not R rated.

Ron Perlman is not an opener, but neither was Johnny Depp or Will Ferrell or Steve Martin circa 2000+, or Lindsey Lohan or Kate Hudson or Kate Beckinsale until last year. Sure, Tom Cruise as Hellboy (not to be confused by Tim Curry as Hell Man) would change the dynamic. But just because Election or The Matrix or Win A Date With Tad Hamilton or Hellboy are fated to underperform does not mean that they have to.

That doesn’t mean it is easy. For one thing, the movie wasn’t ready until last week. The title, Hellboy, is tough. The lack of stars is tough. Selling weird is really tough.

But this is what is missing from the Hellboy campaign, the corner on which can still be turned. From the list of 2003 movies four paragraphs up, what do you remember from the campaigns of those films? Ben Affleck and Jennifer Garner, media stars. Eddie Murphy with the Flash kid on his back. Kate in that yellow dress. Jamie Lee Curtis acting like a teen. Colin Farrell meets Sam Jackson. Jack & Diane & the naked moment. Gene Levy talking “jive.” The Nicholson/Sandler one-sheet.

S.W.A.T. was the least clear of the group, but it was a relief to just hang out in a theater with actors you like by then. And that Michelle Rodriguez poster was a classic. But the rest all had clear, strong imagery.

Personally, I adore the red and black Hellboy posters that are turning up here and there in wild postings. Great stuff, right tone. And too little, too late. It’s no coincidence that LXG is mentioned repeatedly by people who wrote in. I would also mention X-Men. But what worked for X-Men will not work here. The comic is too unknown. In fact, I would say that the only way The Punisher can do any significant business is if it abandons its comic book roots and sells itself as a new take on a Charles Bronson movie. (A natural double feature with Walking Tall.)

Bottom line… I’m just spinning my wheels here. Tracking begets spending, even if spending begets tracking. If Columbia isn’t throwing down on American Idol now, it’s probably not going to happen. Next week is just too late to start trawling for interest. Like I wrote before, that can get the opening to the mid-teens if things go well, but this film deserves a quantum leap. And alas, that may not happen.

Or maybe Hellboy himself, all 6’ 5” with shaved horns and long tail, will turn up at a lot of the March Madness games and he will become America’s foul-mouthed mascot that everyone loves.

Only Abe Sapien really knows.

E ME: If you had to break a new character into America’s minds, what would you be doing two weeks out?