May 10, 2004

You misunderstood… Universal execs wanted a steak in honor of Van Helsing's big start, not for American audiences to put a stake through Van Helsing's pig heart…

My favorite headline of the weekend was AP's "Van Helsing Trumps Olsens," which, intentionally or not, struck me as a Van Helsing DVD extra in which our hero finally kills someone audiences really care about… twice. Of course, "have you seen the twins?" has quite another meaning when discussing Van Helsing co-star Kate Beckinsale, whose new hubby, Len Wiseman, coughed up almost $30 grand to make sure Kate's co-stars were emerging, shall we say? Pearl Harbor… Van Helsing… and coming in 2006, look for Beckinsale to co-star with Ashton Kutcher as Mary and Jesus in "Christ, We Hardly Knew Ye" before appearing in Playboy and marrying Sumner Redstone's 50-year-old grandson.

But I digress…

On Monday through Wednesday in THB this week, I'm going to be building towards the first real edition of Movie City News' 15 Weeks Of Summer this Thursday. My ultimate predictions, with some exceptions, probably won't reflect a major shift from the Summer Preview that ran a few weeks ago. Of course, since that piece ran, Sky Captain & The World of Tomorrow and Shall We Dance both vacated the summer season and Around the World in 80 Days declared itself a pure kid's movie with its monument scaring 1-sheets. Plus, Van Helsing has already fallen out of the "$150 Million - $200 Million Club" to the next level down while the Olsen Twins have fallen into the "What sells on your TV doesn't necessarily sell movie tickets" hole where Hey Arnold! and The Powerpuff Girls found themselves, with no help from Uma Thurman's Bride forthcoming.

I have been crunching a lot of numbers, reflecting in detail on the box office results of the last three summers. There are lots of trends to chew on, many of them rather surprising. Some of them not so surprising.

The most remarkable thing to me so far has been the stark statistical realization that Paramount's troubles have resulted not from issues of taste, but far more directly from not being in the same business as the other major studios. Leaving aside MGM, Dreamworks and New Line, all of whom have averaged fewer than 3 films a summer in recent years, only Disney has stayed as far out of what I will call the Franchise Action category as Paramount. Unlike Disney, however, Paramount has no alternative target, while about 2/3 of Disney's product is distinctly targeted at Kids Films, the second most successful summer category. The only Paramount effort to get into this game - which remarkably accounts for twenty $100 million titles in the last three summers and just four films that failed to reach that milestone in the domestic market in that period - was the Lara Croft franchise, the second of which is one of the Failed Four. With Sky Captain moving out of summer, this will mark the second time in the last four years that Paramount isn't even attempting to deliver a Franchise Action film in the summer.

Paramount's only Kids Films were both synergistic efforts, neither of which made it past $40 million. Outside of the Martin Lawrence concert film Runteldat, Paramount's only summer swings at Mainstream Comedy, where Universal dominates, were Serving Sara and Rat Race, neither of which offered the superstar actor or franchise value that marked the top films in that category in the last three years. And Paramount has stayed out of the Uniques category, where mixed genres and/or expectations defy clear categorization. 28 titles that I put in that category include such diverse product as Signs, Moulin Rouge!, Baby Boy and Seabiscuit.

That leaves only one more major category… and this is where Paramount has parked most of its summer efforts in years past. That's Mature Action. The group of films here tend to lean a little older, into R ratings or the horror genre. And here is where I'd place The Sum Of All Fears, The Italian Job, The Score and K:19 The Widowmaker… films that sold action, but talked a lot more than the Franchises. Two of these films passed $100 million. But only 3 of the 26 in the group did. And the highest grosser was The Bourne Identity, with $122 million. That's a solid double and a hard slide into third base. And while that is good, it isn't swinging for the fences.

And where is the studio this summer? Just three releases, if Without A Paddle stays settled on its August 20 dump date. Manchurian Candidate is a clear Mature Action film and while The Stepford Wives is a satire, perhaps belonging in the Unique category, Paramount is selling it (for now) as though it is… what else?… a Mature Action film.

Mission: Impossible 3 is due next summer and that is, indeed, a Franchise Action film. Now if they can get a big star comedy and a strong original kids movie, they might actually be back in the game.

I realize that I am focusing, for now, on grosses alone and not actual profitability… but that is kind of the point of this exercise. Once you get past a certain dollar figure, no one is going to the movies to see your budget or your quarterlies. The trick, of course, is not to buy your way to hundred million movies, but to rely on your creativity, no matter what the cost. You can gross $140 million with XXX or Bad Boys II… you can do $180 million with Planet of the Apes or the reduced-budget Jurassic Park III… $300 million can be Pirates of the Caribbean or Attack of the Clones.

ON THE DEMOGRAPHIC FRONT - With lots of summer previews around, the thing that most caught my attention was Elaine Dutka's apocryphal L.A. Times tale of an upsurge in "adult" films in the summer. Perhaps the reference to cocktails in each of Mark Urman's quotes should tell us something about the validity of the argument.

The adult demo summer movie is not a new phenomenon and this summer appears, at its start, to be one of the weaker years in recent memory. Oddly, Dutka writes off last summer, limiting her "adult" range to Seabiscuit, The Italian Job and Matchstick Men… which I guess means there were just two "adult" summer films, since Matchstick Men opened in September. But what of Open Range, Down With Love, Alex and Emma and Hollywood Homicide, whose premise and writer/director are much about middle age? And where does Ms. Dutka think the Whale Rider box office came from?

If Down With Love was not a gift to adults, is De-Lovely, which hits most of the same notes? Without counting dollars, isn't Alex & Emma analogous to Raising Helen?

There is clearly nothing brave about releasing a Bourne Identity sequel in the summer… the original, two years ago, was a risk. Plus, the film seems to be making an effort to skew younger, adding an expanded role for teen queen Julia Stiles and a new role for teen stud Gabriel Mann. The Village is not a real adult target film, anymore than the PG-13 Signs was. Likewise, Tom Cruise as a hitman in Collateral is as mainstream and mulit-demo, on its face, as Minority Report.

Is The Stepford Wives an "adult" movie? Only if it does limited business. Is Nicole Kidman still capable of delivering young men and women? I will bet you that Paramount thought so when they hired her and paid her price.

The key summer Oscar slot, which has now become a late July tradition - with last year's Seabiscuit following 2003's The Road To Perdition and that goes as far back at 1999's Saving Private Ryan - is filled this year by The Manchurian Candidate.

That leaves only The Terminal, which is a movie that may well start with a more adult audience, opening around $30 million, but should build through the various demos as word-of-mouth grows.

Even in the arthouse universe, is there a release that's going to match the $20 million of Whale Rider? Will Door In The Floor match or surpass Swimming Pool? Will Maria, Full of Grace match Le Grande Seduction? Will The Clearing be the next One Hour Photo or the next Le Divorce?

There is no question that The Terminal will be the highest grossing film associated with summer adult quality in years. (If you want to tell me about Gladiator as a film for adults, you might need to explain why DreamWorks picked Ain't It Cool News to launch the film and not The New York Times, as they did with American Beauty.) The Manchurian Candidate should be solid. Stepford is unreadable at this point, though it is already arguably too camp to be "mature."

But a great summer for adults?

My guess is that Miramax pulled Shall We Dance? out of August for two reasons. First, if there is any Oscar buzz for Richard Gere, Jennifer Lopez or Susan Sarandon, they are better off with an October launch. And second? The adult market is the same as it's always been… good for movies they like and cruddy for movies they don't.

And so it goes…

READER OF THE DAY: REESE'S PIECES counters the trend: "I hate to admit it, but I get where Harry Knowles was coming from. Van Helsing was written by a nine-year-old who likes to shout and put exclamation marks at the end of every sentence.

I have a deep love for classic horror, especially C- and B-grade black-and-white movies, so while I was angry with the ineptitude of League of Extraordinary Gentlemen, I found myself liking Van Helsing--despite its over three thousand glaring flaws spanning every field of scientific study known to humankind.

I do not think it coincidence that the 20 minutes of ads they show before the film had a clip on Sommers' new thrill ride at Universal Studios Hollywood, The Revenge of the Mummy. VH is not a movie. It has all the depth and weight and significance of a theme park stunt show. This is a film that requires a drive-in, a big bag of popcorn, and some friends to mock the film."

E ME: But who's counting?