May 11, 2004

Okay… let's recap from yesterday…

I've broken down summer films into five categories and looked at their success in the last three summers:
Franchise Action - 24 films/20 $100 million performers
Kids Films - 33 films/9 $100 million performers
Comedy - 19 films/5 $100 million performers
Mature Action - 16 films/3 $100 million performers
Uniques - 28 films/4 $100 million performers

Of course, there are much more sophisticated ways of defining success, by necessity, than the $100 million plateau. For instance, the least expensive Franchise Action title is probably The Fast & The Furious, while the most expensive is probably The Matrix Reloaded, offering a gap of over $150 million in production costs.

That stated, let's break down each of the studios (Paramount was yesterday) and see what we can see as we march towards Thursday's MCN summer column and THB can go back to marching on Troy.

Columbia - 18 films/8 $100 million performers

Remarkably, Columbia is only releasing two films this summer. Two. After releasing five films last summer, a bloated eight the summer before and five in 2001, the number is tiny. Of course, one of the films is Spider-Man 2. That choice of film, at least, fits the studio's pattern.

Columbia has been the industry leader in Franchise Action releases in the last three summers with six. Half were sequels and the other half are all being sequelized, starting with Spidey 2 this summer. All six hit $100 million and only Spider-Man passed $200 million.

Columbia's second most often attempted category, Kids Films, has not been so fortunate for the studio. Five titles have been released in the last three summers and just one, Daddy Day Care, made the $100 million mark… and then, just barely. The drop-off between the $100 million films and the rest, which is an interesting theme of the overall survey and not just of Columbia, is severe. The next highest grosser was Stuart Little 2 with $65 million, though that didn't keep the film out of the big red bath. In fact, among the under-100s, only The Master of Disguise, grossing $40 million domestic, was seen as any kind of success at all.

Surprisingly, Columbia has not had a great run with Comedy either. Two Comedies in 2001, one in 2002 and none last year, only Adam Sandler's Mr. Deeds managed to really hit it big. Columbia goes back to the Comedy well this summer with White Girls, whose high concept harkens back more to The Animal than America's Sweethearts. But the studio is hoping that the movie will do the Deeds.

Last and least, Mature Action (1) and Uniques (3) have been unmitigated losers for the studio. Perhaps Baby Boy was a success with its $29 million domestic gross because of budget, although black-themed dramas tend not to travel well or be as strong in Home Entertainment as some other titles. A Knight's Tale, with $57 million domestic, was the high water mark for this quartet and a major studio just can't make money in the summer with the season's high marketing costs.

No doubt, the studio's summer double feature is going to look good on paper when it's all over. But while four movies in Summer 2002 that cost $100 million-plus is a bit much, Columbia's summer of 2004 may be a little to limited for its own good.

Disney - 15 films/7 $100 million performers

Disney dominates the market for Kids Films, with eight releases in the last three summers. Four of them hit $100 million, which is one fewer than all the other studios' efforts in this category combined.

But you kind of knew that….

What surprised me as I laid all of this out was how hard it was to categorize some of the studio's biggest successes. I have Signs, Pearl Harbor and Open Range in the Uniques category because they just don't quite fit anywhere else, as they each contain elements of more than one group. Pirates of The Caribbean could have been in Kids Films, but I put it in Franchise Action because that's where I think Jerry Bruckheimer was going with the film, even if it started as a Kids Film.

Disney dominates Uniques with five titles, including the less successful Bad Company and crazy/beautiful. They, too, were odd calls, with crazy/beautiful targeting teens, but seemingly too intense to find them and Bad Company stretching between being a Comedy, an Action Franchise and Mature Action.

Disney has stayed completely out of the Mature Action and Comedy categories in the summer. Obviously, that does not keep them from making movies that are funny or about adults. This summer, their pick-up of Around The World in 80 Days could have been their first summer Comedy in years, but as would befit the studio's history, there is now a clear demarcation of the film as a Kids Movie.

That leaves Franchise Action, which as I wrote, includes Pirates of the Caribbean for the purposes of this survey and Reign of Fire, which turned out to be the rare Disney summer boondoggle, ranking down there with Bubble Boy and The Country Bears.

Disney is remarkably consistent in their summer programming. Five films have come out of their two brands (Walt Disney Pictures and Touchstone) each of the last three summers and will again this summer. (I'm not counting America's Heart And Soul, which is so unique as a studio-released doc that I'm not sure how it fits.) Once again, there is an emphasis on Kids Films and Uniques, with two films in each category and one Franchise Action title (they hope) with Bruckheimer's King Arthur.

There is a pretty good swing between the highs and the lows of Disney's summer efforts. But the studio has managed to be consistent enough to expect the four films in the Kids and the Uniques categories to deliver at least $400 million between them. The wild card for Disney's summer is King Arthur. There seems little chance that Disney can begin to match last summer's massive success, but King Arthur is the film that will likely determine just how close they get.

DreamWorks - 6 films/2 $100 million performers

Summer has not been DreamWorks' strong suit in the last three years. The independent studio that feels like a major turns distinctly minor in summer. Yet in 2004, they look to be one of the toughest, tightest competitors on the block.

All four of the studio's summer releases feature a major star, whether the two biggest box office names in the work (Hanks & Cruise), the biggest one-name animated star in the last decade (Shrek) or the emerging master of onanistic comedy with a gentle heart (Will Ferrell). DreamWorks cannot beat Universal's record of five $100 million films in one summer, which happened last year. But it can match Sony's 2003 four-pack.

Analyzing the last three summers of this studio feels fruitless… too simple. Three Kids Films… one success. Three Uniques… one success.

This summer, it's one Kids Film, one Comedy, one Unique and Collateral could fall into Unique, Mature Action or Franchise Action… it's hard to know with so little available information.

MGM - 7 films/0 $100 million performers

MGM has narrowcasted in recent years, focusing on low risk/high potential reward films… which generally mean Comedy. Four of their seven films have been Comedy, including their only summer sequel, Legally Blonde 2, which was a disappointment on most levels.

And again this summer, they go back to the familiar well, releasing three titles, their most in a summer since 2001. Black comedy (Soul Plane)… teen comedy (Sleepover)… and their first summer Unique since Windtalkers, De-Lovely.

Breaking out unknown names in a teen comedy may be challenging and De-Lovely is going to be rough, but Soul Plane is the rare urban comedy in the summer and will be the only R-rated one in the last four summers. Scary Movie 2 and Undercover Brother are the only other recent examples, so there is limited data to estimate with. But there is little doubt that the film will be the third highest grossing summer film from the studio in recent years and could, potentially, even pass up the Legally Blonde duo.

New Line - 6 films/2 $100 million performers

New Line has, like MGM, narrowcasted a bit in recent summers. The major mini-major just isn't in the business of going head-to-head with massive studio ad buys week after week after week. The don't even do their product dumps in August anymore, saving money with September and October releases of their non-working titles. The exception in the last three summers was Simone.

How To Deal was a Kids Movie that was borderline Unique… since no age group wanted to see it.

But the other four releases were all sequels: Rush Hour 2, Austin Powers 3, Freddy Vs. Jason and Dumb & Dumberer. D&D was the only dud.

This summer, New Line's only going out twice. Once with a teen drama, The Notebook, that is going to have to fight not to end up a lost Unique, and Harold & Kumar Go To White Castle, that should look a lot more like the original Dumb & Dumber on the NL books and with audiences.

20th Century Fox - 12 films/5 $100 million performers

Fox has been consistent about releasing four films each of the last three summers. This year, they raise that number to five, but even more importantly, they are releasing three Franchise Action pictures in one summer, as far as I can tell, for the first time ever. The studio has had excellent results with these films, scoring over $100 million with four out of five releases in the last three years and three of those over $180 million.

All three Franchise Action releases come in as slight underdogs with Emmerich trying to recover from Godzilla without any major stars to sell with, Will Smith coming off of two high grossing but disappointing sequels and both the Alien and the Predator showing franchise age before teaming up. But that should be seen as an opportunity, not a danger sign. Then again… there isn't much history to count on here.

Fox joins Disney, WB, and Universal as the studios that have each released at least four Uniques in the last four summers. But Fox has been the least successful in this area, at least at the box office. They truly loved Moulin Rouge and Unfaithful, but could get neither to the $60 million mark. Down With Love was a disaster, while Wrong Turn was just a misstep that may have recovered most of its costs in Home Entertainment. But they are steering clear of this category this summer.

The studio has had good fortune in Kids Films, this summer going back to the well with Garfield, which may not play at all for adults, but still could find its way to the $70m-$80m range on kid's price tickets alone.

Fox has stayed away from summer Comedy since Me, Myself & Irene didn't quite take off as expected in 2000. This summer they try again with Dodgeball, which unlike Irene will be PG-13.

They won't try Mature Action again after getting clapped down with their only summer effort in that category in the last three summers, Kiss of the Dragon. It may be the toughest category to win in, with the least upside.

Universal - 16 films/10 $100 million performers

It's been a very good three summers for Universal. They are five for five, pushing Franchise Action titles over $100 million, though they haven't quite had the home runs that others have enjoyed. Their top Franchise Action performer was The Mummy Returns, with $202 million domestic. That figure's been topped by five other studios in this category in the last three summers, twice by Fox.

After delivering two $100 million Franchise Action pictures last summer, they are back again this year with Van Helsing and The Chronicles of Riddick. The second weekend for Van Helsing will be critical in determining whether the film will end up like The Mummy, The Mummy Returns or the film that made the first Friday in May heat up, Deep Impact. Riddick reports for action on June 11.

Universal has also been the King of Comedy these last three summers. Bruce Almighty quietly outdid the much more heavily hyped Austin Powers in Goldmember, the only two Comedies to gross over $150 million in the summer. But they have sliced the American Pie franchise successfully twice in these last three summers.

The Bourne Identity is the highest grossing Mature Action movie of the last three summers and Universal hopes to top that number with its sequel this summer.

Universal really hasn't been in the summer Kids Film business, having returned only with Working Title's Johnny English since the Rocky & Bullwinkle summer car wreck of 2000. And Mature Action is a one-film pony, since the studio turned around The Bourne Identity well enough to return for a sequel this summer. But this summer, Thunderbirds is flying in and the studio has marked it clearly as a Kid Film, so there it is. Ironically, the television franchise is all about boomers. But this is live action… no puppets. Two Brothers, which will also be pitched as a Kids Film might slide into the Uniques, as it is a French wildlife movie with English-speaking stars…

Like so many, Uniques have not been a great strength for Universal, with Blue Crush, Brotherhood of the Wolf and Captain Correlli's Mandolin darkening the category until Seabiscuit rode into town.

Warner Bros - 19 films/3 $100 million performers

It's almost painful laying this one out. Just three $100 million movies in three summers… two sequels and one an exploitation of one of the most popular TV franchises in history.

But it's worse than that. Eleven of the nineteen summer releases in the last three summers failed to gross as much as $27 million domestic, which is not enough to cover P&A on any one of those titles.

The studio has been the most prolific in the last three summers and this year is no different as they release six more movies, one of which has already squeaked out. Studio history does not bode well for Troy, although it might be their highest grossing summer non-presold-franchise summer hit in recent years, surpassing A.I.'s $79 million and Swordfish's $70 million and perhaps Cats & Dogs' $94 million. Perhaps. It is a film that wants to fit into Franchise Action, but is really a Unique in very expensive clothing.

Harry Potter and The Prisoner of Azkaban is a Franchise Action picture that fits right in WB's wheelhouse. Watch for this film to crowd The Matrix Reloaded's 2003 numbers. Catwoman is intended as a Franchise Action film, but we'll see whether the studio tries to target a more specific audience before the release date comes.

Interestingly, WB has only had success with Kids Films that feature animals in recent summers. Scooby-Doo and Cats & Dogs, yes. Freddie Prinze, Jr. without the bleached hair, no. The studio goes into this category with Hillary Duff this summer and should produce its best non-dog Kids Movie performance yet.

The studio likes the Mature Action category, but is batting only .400 and even then, their best result was Swordfish's $70 million. They're back again this August with Exorcist: The Beginning.

And remarkably, for a studio known for leading with superstars, WB has released only one straightforward Comedy in the last three summers, the disastrous The In-Laws.

Statistically, one thing jumps out at you screaming when looking at the studio's summer performances… More Franchises… Fewer Total Movies!!!

There is always a bit of chicken and egg in a discussion like this. Does WB sell big movies well and small movies poorly because the small movies are just plain hard to sell or is it that the marketing department is so distracted by the big movies that the small movies get neglected? Does Warner Bros. not make summer Comedies because The In-Laws failed or did The In-Laws fail because the studio is out of the habit of making comedies?

Only fifteen summer films in the last three years grossed under $30 million at every other studio combined. WB had eleven. Too many movies.

Tomorrow, The Indies and a look at some industry wide statistics.

E ME: What do your observation skills tell you about how the studios handle the summer heat?