May 21, 2004

It's been a long month… and I think that everyone at every studio is kind of pleased to finally get a movie in the marketplace that is unlikely to be marked as a major disappointment by anyone, financially or creatively. It's almost too bad that it isn't Memorial Day now since it would give us all an extra day to bask in the comfort of prosperity.

Meanwhile, in France, there will be a winner or two at Cannes, but very few surprises. Almodovar may not take home a prize, but Sony Classics will have an art house box office prize, as expected, with Bad Education. Tarnation got a lot of love, but it is still "just" a brilliant, intimate, creative recreation of a life through home movies and if it does win the Camera d'Or, people will be pleased, but the controversy over whether Jonathan Caouette really "directed" the film which is make exclusively of found footage and very skilled editing. And with all the buzz around Fahrenheit 911, Weinstein and Moore have been unable to close a deal with a studio art arm, even though at least two have gone into negotiations, because they want all the credit, control and profit from the film, leaving nothing but a vague soreness in the posterior for whoever takes the film on… a disincentive far more powerful than any political motive. Focus, which was earlier in the week expected to close the deal, apparently will pass and stick to their Oscar-potential, Imagine-produced Fenton/Barbato doc about Deep Throat… not the political one.

For anyone looking for "this year's The Pianist," they have to come away sadly disappointed. Wellspring just picked up last year's oral sex film, The Brown Bunny, and someone will surely pick up the multiple oral sex film of this year, Nine Songs. Perhaps they can play as a double (penetration) feature. Sony Classics picked up Zhang Yimou's House of Flying Daggers, which may not take much longer to hit movie screens in the U.S, than Yimou's brilliant Hero, which is finally being released by Miramax, almost two years after it was first scheduled. Z Channel: A Magnificent Obsession is a sure seller too, but some playdates in L.A. are about all that can be expected before the doc plays on Trio 200 times.

Ghost in the Shell 2: Innocence is already scheduled for release by DreamWorks Animation/Go Fish in the U.S. (You can visit the Japanese website here) The celebrity-laden The Life and Death of Peter Sellers and The Assassination of Richard Nixon don't have domestic theatrical yet, but surely will. And Modovino, The Edukators and 2046 all seem destined for at least art house releases in American.

Of course, the movie other than Fahrenheit 911 that is going to make the most noise in the U.S. is Walter Salles' The Motorcycle Diaries, almost unanimously held to be the best mainstream film at Sundance this year and now may take home the Palm d'Or as well. The film will be released here by Focus Features, which won the rights in Park City by being willing to pay $4 million or $5 million for domestic theatrical only. Breakeven for that is somewhere between $15 million and $20 million, taking P&A into account. But the momentum is building for the film to do that and perhaps more.

Word is that Tarantino will make sure that Park Chan-Wook's ultraviolent Old Boy will get to American shores, even if he can't power it to the Palm s'Or. And Agnes Jaoui's Look At Me may be a little too girly for QT to let grab the gold. We'll know soon.

I must admit, this year's festival seemed more compelling to me than it has in years. For all the go, go, go, there seemed to be a certain peacefulness this year. It's hard to explain. But the most important festival in the world continues to fail to live up to that billing. But Roger Ebert in a white suit… Tarantino doing his best Jerry Lewis… Michael Moore selling his special brand of anti-Americanism to the French and the journalists who most enjoy the notion of Janeane Garofalo beating Dennis Miller over the head with a shovel. It's a beautiful thing.

Enjoy your big green weekend. I know that Jeffrey Katzenberg will.

READER OF THE DAY: NOT BRITISH PETROLEUM writes: "I wonder if once the "wow" phase of CGI finally comes to an end will it finally become a pratical tool. What came to mind was Van Helsing, would it still have cost as much if they had just shot the whole thing on the Universal Backlot? Since they went ahead and used CGI to enhance the scenery Europe what would have been the difference? Also that's what they did in Pirates of the Carabean, most of that was filmed off the California coast. I understand price is no longer the real concern, Star Trek Nemisis was done almost completely CGI because it was cheaper than minature effects. But then again in Hollywood if they give you 200 million dollars I guess you go out of your way to spend it."

And this from BRIAN'S POP: "Hollywood might finally be getting a little too greedy, and its coming back to bite them on the ass. More and more, studios are relying on the expanding profits from DVD's and are shrinking the window between theatrical and video release more and more. As consumers, we are not stupid, folks!! Why spend forty bucks to take the family to see Van Helsing when it'll be at Best Buy in August (okay, maybe Labor Day!) for $17.99?? Any of the 10 million or so folks who ponied up for either Miracle or Hellboy have gotta be cheesed that barely 3 months go by and, voila, the DVD's are at Wal-mart for less that what they paid for concessions!! Now, while this may not bite too heavily into the "hey lets see a movie" decisions (aka Opening Weekend), this has gotta be killing the "hey, I really liked that...lets see it again!" decisions (aka Not dropping 60% plus the second/third/fourth weekend). The studios have gotta realize that to hit the 200 million that they now need from domestic just to recoup (and, yes, that's INCLUDING the magic DVD teat in the equation), they need REPEAT VISITORS! And if "hey lets see that again" becomes "why bother? It'll be out on DVD before fall", the repeat business that brought Nemo to 340 million and Pirates to 300 million will evaporate (both of which waited more than 5 months to hit video and both of which sold out BOTH at theatres AND at video stores). As much as some studios try to present domestic box office as a not-that-important factor in their financial health, it needs to be accorded a little more respect than a 12-week theatre-to-video window."

E ME: If you want to, I am here…