June 1, 2004

Well, that was a weekend to memorialize.

With the estimated first and third best Memorial Day weekend ever, Shrek 2 and The Day After Tomorrow both exceeded expectations, not only of the box office prowess of each film, but of just how much money could be spent at the box office in one weekend. There have only been fourteen $85 million-plus weekends, four day or otherwise, in the history of film… eleven in summer… all but one in the last four years. Two of them occurred this weekend.

But this is not all good news. It's great for Fox, which now appears likely to get one of its more egregious bowel movements ever into profit. And for DreamWorks, Shrek 2 has been bigger than anyone could even have dreamed… and they have two very strong titles still due this summer. But what about the studios that have not yet gotten to enjoy a long drink at the trough this summer?

There are two schools of thought. One is that the marketplace expanded for this weekend, so the door is wide open to any possibilities. On the other hand, history tells us that there is only so much air in the summer box office balloon and that it is quite possible to wear out the audience. Following DAT and Shrek 2, much as Finding Nemo followed Bruce Almighty (which is quite likely to retake the #3 position back from Day After Tomorrow when finals come out) last year, is Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban. And then Riddick, ironically now finding itself in the 2 Fast 2 Furious slot.

Even if Shrek 2 drops by 50% next weekend and DAT by 60%, you are looking at a #2 and #3 holdover of $64 million in those slots. It's hard to imagine Harry 3 opening with less than $80 million. That's only $10 million less in the top three slots than this record breaking weekend.

The weekend after that, assuming a 40% drop for the two multi-week holdovers and a 50% drop for Potter, you're looking at $78 million in the 2-4 slots. Can Riddick open with as much as 2 Fast 2 Furious? Can Garfield and The Stepford Wives combine to open to $25 million? That would put us right back at similar numbers to the record-breaking weekend we just had.

Then we have The Terminal, Dodgeball, White Chicks… all leading to a little movie called Spider-Man 2.

The question is not whether some movies are going to suffer for the success of the others, but when the engine will start sputtering. How had can moviegoers be driven before fatigue sets in? What films will pay that price? And as studios start getting paranoid about that fatigue, how much harder will the push and how much advertising fatigue will that create?

I wish I could be all soft and sweet and positive about this, but the other shoe will drop. And I'm not talking about it falling on Stepford Wives or Catwoman. Let's throw the bloody messes in the bloody waste bin. If The Terminal and White Chicks have solid, unspectacular openings, there still isn't a lot of time for moviegoers to be refreshed before Spidey.

After Spidey, looking at just the likely winners, you have July weekend after July weekend loaded - King Arthur, Anchorman, I, Robot, A Cinderella Story, The Bourne Supremacy, The Village. I have no idea whether, after it is all over, we will look back and roll our eyes at ever considering some of these movies players. But there is only one title that I can imagine opening with less than $30 million… and only because there is so much competition.

Remember… there were eleven "#1" movies in the eleven weekends from June on last year. 2 Fast 2 Furious, Finding Nemo, The Hulk, Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle, T3, Pirates Of The Caribbean, Bad Boys II, Spy Kids 3, American Wedding, Freddy Vs. Jason, and S.W.A.T. Do you consider half these titles to be great successes? Less? More?

Pirates and Nemo both passed $300 million. T3, which was one of the most expensive movies ever as of last summer, was the only other title to reach $150 million domestic… just barely. Another six passed $100 million… one just barely. Three of those titles cost over $130 million to produce and more than $200 million total when you add in worldwide P&A. There are at least five more movies that cost over $100 million to produce coming in June and July of this summer. Do the math.

August is looking like a safe place again this summer. Collateral, The Princess Diaries 2, Alien vs. Predator, Exorcist: The Beginning and Anacondas are all movies that have saleable elements but that were done at a price. Tom Cruise, Princess sequel, two huge iconic characters, a classic (that is the most likely dud) and a pure, dumb thriller sequel.

But as happy as DreamWorks and Fox should be this morning, everyone else has to be a little more nervous for the extraordinary weekend that just passed. Hollywood is an unnatural place, but still, nature abhors a vacuum. Just ask the counterprogrammers of Raising Helen and Soul Plane.

READER OF THE DAY: FIBS writes: "You've missed the point on The Day After Tomorrow. Judging by the audience I saw it with yesterday at the Arclight (digital projection, natch), it is already a kitschy camp classic. The audience had the bestest time! We were laughing at all the right places (well, maybe not to the filmmaker's thinking but that's how it goes.) I rank Jake Gyllenhaal's phone scene with the rising water right up there with Shelly Winters' drowning in The Poseidon Adventure. Whee!"

STELLA'S SON writes: "For an hour, I was willing to overlook the numerous flaws in The Day After Tomorrow. Everything I expected to be bad (acting, writing, etc.) was bad, but the special effects were outstanding (even though CGI still looks like CGI) and there's something perversely enjoyable about watching the world getting its ass kicked by mother nature. But Emmerich shoots his wad way too early, and the structure completely kills any good will he had going for him. The second hour is just mind-numbingly awful. Where do you even begin?

You've already done a thorough job explaining why this movie sucks. I don't really have much to add. I could barely keep my eyes open during the second hour, and if I had been sitting near the end of the aisle and not smack dab in the middle, I might have bolted. At least there are some good laughs, and I love the Cheney lookalike. Funny shit. But as you do, I wonder how in the hell this is getting a pass from so many critics and viewers. They flat-out acknowledge the shortcomings, in many cases not even attempting to get around the fact that the story is abysmal and the writing atrocious, or that the second act sets a new low for second acts. Damn it, stuff blows up real good, and you just need to turn your brain off and like it. If you can't do that, the problem lies in you, not the movie. I just don't buy that argument.
Why should we settle for this shit? Why do we have to forgive the countless shortcomings? Is it because of the (laughable) politics involved? Is it because we love to hate Cheney and this administration so much (which I certainly do), and its stance on the environment, that we have to make excuses for the movie? It's sort of puzzling.

I find it really disheartening, the way so many are willing to give this movie a pass. I don't mind turning my brain off if a filmmaker isn't going to insult my intelligence every step of the way and manipulate me every chance he/she gets (a fucking sick kid!). Summer action movies don't have to be this bad. Why can't we expect more? The Bourne Identity is a perfect example. So is The Hulk. Heaven forbid something in the summer is ambitious. You get your ass torn apart for that. But demand nothing of the viewer. Spoon feed them the entire running time. Hold their hand. Make it as easy and undemanding as possible. Then you're OK. You get to ass go. It's a fucking crock of shit if you ask me. I pray to God Collateral doesn't let me down."

And JOHN E. writes: "Saw DAT. I'd wager I could make a list of 67 Problems with The Day After Tomorrow. Here are 10 as a warm-up.

1. Why does never occur to anyone in the library to burn a chair or table, something that'd take longer to burn than some books?

2. How did the wolves escape and why only them?

3. Wouldn't Jake Gyllenhaal lose his hand to frostbite after being outside on the ship with no glove?

4. If the temperature drops ten degrees a second in the eye, how they possibly outrun the freeze?

5. Those people trekking away from the library... One guy has doubts and says "We should have stayed in the library." Why not go into the building right next to you instead of staying outside to build a fire?

6. So an entire Ice Age takes four days to come and go?

7. Why would Dennis Quaid's bosses let him trek to the North when they could helicopter over in a couple days?

8. Why does the cancer kid have to wait for an ambulance when he's only on oxygen?

9. How did those cell phones come back online?

10.. Why did it never occur to the Scotsmen to build a fire?"

E ME: What films do you expect to see fed to the wolves?