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June 14, 2004
I guess we can start calling it The Chronicle Of Riddick now…
It was a great weekend at the box office if you were expected to be a big loser… but for those expecting (or hoping for) a big win, it was one ugly three days. Riddick's estimated $24.8 million start probably means a total domestic gross of less than $70 million. The Stepford Wives was slated to crash & burn and maybe even topple another upper level Paramount exec, but an estimated $22.2 million probably means at least $60 million, which will still mean that Paramount loses money, but not nearly at the The Core level of red ink. And at an estimated $21.6 million start, Garfield, the only entry aimed at kids, could make a run at $80 million or more. It could also slow down next weekend. Around The World In 80 Days opens this Wednesday and the destiny of that kids' movie will greatly effect just how fat Fox's cat gets.
But the biggest story of the weekend is really Harry Potter & The Prisoner of Azkaban's estimated 63% drop. If the number holds, it puts HP3 in the company of Batman & Robin, Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle, Matrix Revolutions and The Hulk, as big openings that dropped over 60% in their second weekend. But the big difference and what is really scary is that Potter is a very well reviewed, seemingly well-liked movie. The Matrix Reloaded, which last year dropped 59.8% last year after an opening just smaller than Harry's Azkaban, was being attacked by much of the media. Not so Azkaban. Austin Powers in Goldmember is the closest relatively well-received dropper, falling 57.4% after a $73 million start. But there was a lot less at stake and $142 million after that second weekend nearly already had that film in the black. Not so Azkaban, even with $158 million in the domestic till.
But we're not really looking at movies that are going to end up being losers. Harry Potter & The Prisoner of Azkaban will still get to the mid 200 millions. But with nine films now having opened to over $80 million, only five will reach the $300 million mark domestic, three of those in the summer, all in May. Spider-Man 2 is planning on changing that history. The biggest June release ever was Jurassic Park, which ended up with $357 million domestic over a decade ago. The next biggest is Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me's $206 million, Spidey 2 wants to break the Jurassic Park record too. But what has to be scary this morning for the good folks at Columbia who have apparently made a strong commercial movie is that even an $80 million 3-day June opening and a $130 million 5-day opening, there is the very real business prospect, no matter how well the movie is received, that the second weekend will drop as much as 60%, grossing $200 million in 12 days, putting it just behind Shrek 2's pace.
This, of course, is a huge success. But would Columbia feel that way?
Universal has had seven $50 million-plus openings in the last four years. No one is really close. Fox, New Line and WB have all had four such openings. That said, only one of the seven recent $50 million openers managed to hold on to as much as 50% of those openings… and that was Jim Carrey's Bruce Almighty. (Carrey also had a strong second weekend hold after a $55 million opening with Universal's Grinch in 2000.) Not surprisingly, Bruce Almighty was the biggest domestic grosser of all those $50 million starters, totaling $243 million. The only other $200 million grosser in the group was The Mummy Returns' $202 million. But more disturbing, four of the seven never got to $135 million domestic, even with that huge start. (Less disturbing… they all got to $100 million.)
With The Hulk, The Cat In The Hat, Van Helsing and now The Chronicle of Riddick, the studio is looking a little franchise challenged. This is not to say that the studio is in some kind of trouble. In this period, they've also had big wins, including A Beautiful Mind, American Pie 2, The Bourne Identity, 8 Mile, Bruce Almighty, Seabiscuit, American Wedding, Dawn of the Dead and Along Came Polly. But The Mummy Returns remains the only $200 million movie from the company that does not involve Jim Carrey or Steven Spielberg (Bruce Almighty, Grinch and Jurassic 2 are the only films other than Mummy 2 to turn the trick for the studio in the last decade.).
The fall of Harry Potter & The Prisoner of Azkaban and the okay, but really weak openings for the three openers this weekend is good news for Columbia and Spider-Man 2 in this regard… a box office lull has begun and while The Terminal may well open in the 30s next weekend, the Top Six at the box office should account for less than $100 million for the first time in a month. The Notebook and Fahrenheit 9/11 the following weekend won't change that. Fatigue looks like it will subside so that Spider-Man 2 can have his way with the marketplace. But King Arthur, I Robot and Catwoman still have a lot to worry about as July looks like the new June (for this year only) and there is a very real chance that there won't be another big success after S2 until The Village launches at the end of the month.
There have been no full-on disasters this summer… not yet. But the cycle of highs and lows is getting more complicated every day, inside the studios and out.
READER OF THE DAY: M&M writes: "I'm going to have to disagree with you regarding Drew McWeeny's reviewing of films, given that he works for certain companies now. Everyone who visits the site is aware of Drew's new affiliations. He writes about them often, and has copped to them several times prior to reviewing a film made by a company like Revolution.
I'm not naive enough to think that working for film companies won't alter Drew's reviews of their films, but I enjoy Drew's writing and point of view, and I find him to be quite honest, for the most part, and willing to cop to mistakes he's made. So, basically, it's not that I don't understand and appreciate your opinion. But its not like the guy's pulling wool over our collective eyes."THE SPEAR writes: "This is off the beaten path, but isn't everyone a little excited about the Lakers getting their asses handed to them? Even your readers, who are probably 90% from LA should be. You don't have to be from Detroit to love an underdog story -- especially since this one involves a team full of cast-offs and no real stars. Hard work wins. Glitz fades. Rejoice."
ORBISON'S OBSESSION writes: "how about 'ten reasons for snarky wankers not to get pissed off and diss Dave Poland under the tissue-thin guise of 'online entertainment columnists' "
10. dave poland has cool quotes to read and ponder while 'the hot button' pic slowly downloads onto the screen;
9. it's mr. poland's column and if for some reason he don't want to write it, that's his prerogative, so piss off;
8. mr. poland at least bothers to do some research into what he's talking about and support his view, unlike many others of his ilk;
7. dave poland has funny stuff in his column;
6. mr. poland is the only 'online entertainment columnist' (that i'm aware of) that not only invites anyone out there to write to him, he even bothers to post some of those opinions in his column on a daily basis;
5. when mr. poland reviews a film, we don't get a step-by-step, bloody annoying synopsis so that we know the entire story before we even see the movie;
4. when mr. poland feels like reviewing a film, he at least reviews the film for what it is, and not what he wants it to be or thinks it should have been;
3. dave poland is unusually objective and even-handed in giving what he knows is his subjective opinion, and that ain't easy;
2. from his picture at the top of his column, it looks like at least mr. poland appears to be the only spunky critic around;
1. it is, after all, on-line journalism about the mooooovees and the movie business, and if the reader ever actually lets it piss his/her off, then they need to get some sort of life..."E ME: Well, that was nice… yet, here is another day of boring box office analysis… tomorrow is another day, isn't it?
