August 24, 2004

Well, it's time to look at the next season of movies, yet again... Every moron with a pencil is doing it, so I guess it's my turn.

I've decided to break the 83 movies that I am focusing on for the next four months (oh how I look forward to the corrective e- mails!) into five categories, not just an analysis by date. But first, I do have to speak to dates.

What the hell are people thinking?!?!?!

Ironically, this year it is not the big money movies that are stacked up like jets over La Guardia on 9/11, but it is the indie films that are going to cannibalize one another, particularly in September and October. I count 19 major limited release titles going out in the month of September and another 11 in October. How many people are going to see both Warriors of Heaven and Earth and Hero that are opening within a week of one another?

How can even the best-intended audience decide between the openings of Enduring Love, Ghost In The Shell 2: Innocence, Goodbye Dragon Inn, Head in the Clouds, Infernal Affairs, Silver City and Zelary on September 17? And isn't the audience for Ghost in the Shell 2 going to see Sky Captain or Hero? Isn't the Head in the Clouds crowd going to see Wimbeldon? I mean the only good thing you can say about a September Friday like the 17th, with ten new movies opening, is that only one (Mr. 3000) has any black people in it. But even so, Miramax will be hoping to find some of that "urban" audience for a weekend two of Hero.

The rest of the way, there are only a few crazy dates. If I were Friday Night Lights, I'd be worried about going head-to-head with Team America: World Police. And if I were on Team America, I'd be terrified that lots of kids would pay to see the PG-13 Friday Night Lights and sneak in to see my movie.

November 5th is so heated with Alexander and The Incredibles that there is a strong rumor that Warner Bros. may move Alexander a bit later into the month.

But even on a date like November 19, with four wide releases going out at once, the four movies have such distinctly different demographics that it should work out fine. There is the chick flick biz (Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason), the action flick crowd (National Treasure), the kids (The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie) and the hardcore arthousers who will rush to see the new Almodovar (Bad Education) without fail.

The first grouping is...

SHOW ME THE MONEY

42 movies enter the fall season with money as the first thing on their minds. Some are awards contenders (Alexander, Ray, Phantom of the Opera), others are wild-eyed fun (Team America, The Incredibles, Ocean's Twelve) and others are not all that ambitious (Paparazzi, Shall We Dance?, Shaun of the Dead), but first and last, these films are looking for validation at the box office before anyplace else.

Of this group, only 23 are legitimately expecting to gross more than $50 million going in. This does not mean that some on the other list won't make it there or that all of these will. But further breaking down the list in
groups...

The $100 Million-plus Club
The Incredibles - November 5
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - December 17
Meet the Fockers - December 22
Ocean's Twelve - December 10
The Polar Express - November 10
National Treasure - November 19

The $75 Million- $100 Million Club
Alexander - November 5
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason - November 19
The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie - November 19
Team America: World Police- October 15
Phantom of the Opera - December 3
Shark Tale - October 1
Ladder 49 - October 8
Taxi - October 8

The $50 Million - $75 Million Club
Friday Night Lights - October 15
The Grudge - October 22
Ray - October 29
Seed of Chucky - October 22
Surviving Christmas - November 12
Beauty Shop - November 24
Christmas with the Kranks - November 24
Blade Trinity - December 10
Fat Albert - December 25
Synergy - December 29

Under $50 Million, But Happy With It
The Forgotten - September 24
Shaun of the Dead - September 24
Raise Your Voice - October 8 (Hilary Duff)
The Cookout - September 3
Hero- September 10
Resident Evil: Apocalypse- September 10
The Ringer - November 5

Under $50 Million, But Not Happy With It
Mr. 3000 - September 17
Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow - September 17
Wimbledon - September 17
A Sound of Thunder - October 8
Eulogy - October 29
Paparazzi - September 3
Wicker Park - September 3
Cellular - September 10
First Daughter- September 24
Shall We Dance? - October 15
Alfie - October 22
The Flight of the Phoenix - October 22
An Unfinished Life - December 24

SHOW ME THE AWARDS

These 11 titles come out looking for success at the box office, but expect
the real win to come during awards season, which leads to more box office (they hope).

Vanity Fair - September 1
Head in the Clouds - September 17
Silver City- September 17
The Motorcycle Diaries - September 24
I Heart Huckabee's - October 1
Being Julia- October 15
P.S. - October 15
Stage Beauty - October 15
Sideways - October 20
Finding Neverland - November 12 (limited)
Kinsey - November 12 (limited)

SHOW MY THE INDIES

There are 25 major indies being released in the fall season. As you will
notice, there is a lot of heat early on and almost nothing as the holidays
roll around. Not all of these films can do well.

Remember Me, My Love- September 3
Warriors of Heaven & Earth- September 3
Criminal- September 10
Reconstruction- September 10
TaeGukGi- September 10
When Will I Be Loved- September 10
Enduring Love- September 17
Ghost In The Shell 2: Innocence- September 17
Goodbye Dragon Inn- September 17
Infernal Affairs- September 17
Zelary- September 17
A Dirty Shame - September 24
The Last Shot - September 24
The September Tapes - September 24
The Yes Men- September 24
Dear Frankie - October 1
In My Country - October 1
Tarnation - October 6
I Am David - October 8
Primer - October 8
Sex is Comedy - Oct 20
Asylum - October 29
Birth - November 5
Bad Education - November 19
The Woodsman - December 24

SHOW ME THE DATE
These three films still need dates...

Shopgirl
The Aviator
The Devil's Rejects

SHOW ME THE DOOR
These three films have already moved out of 2004.

Millions
Inside Deep Throat (limited)
The Ring 2

There is a lot more detail to get into, but it's going to have to wait for Part Two, where I'll examine each title with a bit more individuality.

READER OF THE DAY: Thanks for all of your nice e-mails yesterday. I am going to take a little time to try to find some of the columns that people remembered.

E ME: How do you see the fall?