August 26, 2004

Oh so long ago, on Tuesday, the THB Fall Preview ran... and now, it is time to run it again, with corrections and expansions aplenty. The total number of titles has grown to 91 and I suspect that the corrective e-mails will be a thing of the past and clear arguments over opinion will take their place.

The same issues of the overloaded September and October remain... even if the brain damage that placed Hero in next month's line-up has passed. Since Tuesday, Universal has confirmed their move of Friday Night Lights to the week before Team America: World Police instead of going head-to-head; Miramax has resettled on their December 17 release date for The Aviator (finally eliminating speculation that a move to 2005 might occur) and The Life Aquatic With Steve Zissou was finally announced as a December 24 release.

From this perch, I can confidently claim that the best movie of the nine scheduled for release on September 17 is Paramount Classic's Enduring Love, one of the very finest and most thoughtful films I have seen this year. (Disney sent a Bernie Mac Mr. 3000 bobblehead doll that I will cherish for life... my Anchorman collection, who are under attack on my mantle from some very scary Alien and Predator dolls, has finally been integrated. Might I humbly suggest celebrity-faced rubber ducks as the next great innovation in movie kitsch.)

So here we go again... changes are in italics.

SHOW ME THE MONEY

The $100 Million-Plus Club
Don't expect to see a $100 million grosser before November this year... and then we'll see just how deeply the films can bite. There was some e-mail questioning the upside of a couple of these films, perhaps the most e-mail coming in to abuse the National Treasure trailer. But I still expect Disney to turn that corner.

The Incredibles - November 5 - The question is not "Big?" but "How Big?" .Monsters. Inc holds the fall animation record with $256 million domestic.

The Polar Express - November 10 - This is one of those movies that has a lot of people scared, but I have an abiding faith in Zemeckis' commercial instincts and figure that by the time it arrives, the form will take second position to the storytelling.

National Treasure - November 19 - Disney's off-beat adventure movie seems to have people confused now. But again, I see it finding its sea legs by the time it actually reaches theaters.

Ocean's Twelve - December 10 - Did anyone really expect the first one to be quite as popular as it was? For a high concept film, it was remarkably leggy.

Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - December 17 - Hollywood has long understood that audiences love "the same thing, but different." Snicket is edgier than Potter, has a bigger star than The Addams Family and could easily end up being the biggest non-summer grosser of this year.

Meet the Fockers - December 22 - This fall, Dustin Hoffman is Ben Stiller, with four movies coming our way. (Jude Law is champ, with six titles hotting theaters.) Still, Dusty as Ben's dad and Babs as his mom and all of them torturing DeNiro is just too much fun to stay away from. The only thing I can imagine adding is Eddie Murphy as the nosy next door neighbor.

The $75 Million- $100 Million Club
This is a controversial grouping. I'd be happy to see Shark Tale do Shrek-ian business, but I am not yet a believer. Taxi could easily fall into a lower grossing category. Alexander doesn't have the star power of Troy, but if it is notably better, $100 million-plus is not out of the question. And Bridget Jones has such a loyal home entertainment following that it could be one of those shock $40 million-plus openings that leads to over $100 million. We'll see.

Shark Tale - October 1 - A funny premise. A great voice cast. But how is it as a whole. Journalists will know for sure soon, as DreamWorks trots out their film at festivals in Europe and North America over the next month. This film is almost as critical as Shrek 2 was to the DreamWorks Animation IPO they hope to float in October.

Ladder 49 - October 1 - John Travolta has been no lock lately, but I think he is still capable of powering the right film to a $20 million opening. The materials on this film are convincing, even if they are not being seen very much as of yet.

Taxi - October 8 - Latifah and Jimmy... uh... that guy from SNL... Jimmy... Still, Latifah and good commercials may be enough.

Team America: World Police - October 15 - This should be bigger, but South Park should have been a lot bigger too. How many PG-13 tickets will be sold as kids sneak in to watch the puppets perform "69?"

Alexander - November 5 - I didn't know that Colin Farrell was a natural blonde! What does Oliver Stone have left in the tank? We're about to find out.

Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason - November 19 - She back, she's got an Oscar, and she gained some of the weight she gained the last time. Do you ever get the odd feeling that the third movie will be better?

The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie - November 19 - This one may be a year too late, but I know I will be there. The big question will be whether the film diverges enough from the series to get people to pay to see their TV experience on a big screen. Smells of The Powerpuff Girls, though Paramount will work a lot harder to sell this than WB did on that one.

Phantom of the Opera - December 25 - Hard to imagine it doing any more... very possible to imagine it doing less. It's a cast of relative unknowns in a show that people pay $100 a seat to see over and over and over again. Will this one suffer the fate of Evita or is the new era of theater about to spawn a new era of melodramatic movie musicals?

The $50 Million - $75 Million Club
The combination of solid doubles and Oscar bait fills this grouping.

Friday Night Lights - October 8 - Peter Berg proved he could make a solid, commercial film with The Rundown last year. Here he gets a drama with comedy based on a big best seller that seems to be this year's Remember The Titans without the superstar.

The Grudge - October 22 - The marketing is good... Sarah Michelle Gellar probably won't sell many tickets... but a good scary movie just in time for Halloween should work.

Seed of Chucky - October 22 - He's back and this time, he's a daddy! October 2004 is officially the Month of Puppet Sex.

Ray - October 29 - One of the major Oscar contenders, the film will finally arrive for regular audiences. Hey... Ho... Hey... Hooooo... baby, what'd I say? The film needs to make at least $60 million to keep its Oscar aspirations in line.

Surviving Christmas - November 12 - Yes, Virginia, there is another Ben Affleck movie.

Christmas with the Kranks - November 24 - Yes, Virginia, there is another family Christmas movie two weeks after the last one.

Closer - December 3 - Mike Nichols, Julia Roberts and a lot of talk about sex. Freed of her Mona Lisa Smile, Roberts, who is also back in Ocean's Twelve, leads the four-way infidelity drama while Natalie Portman is said to steal the show. Probably too serious to make serious money.

Blade Trinity - December 10 - How much more that the other Blades can this one make? Jessica Biel and a hyper-buff Ryan Reynolds may extend the series, but the box office is probably about the same.

Spanglish - December 17 - You got your Adam Sandler in my Jim Brooks! You got my Jim Brooks in your Adam Sandler! Will it be a peanut butter cup or ice cream with onions?

The Life Aquatic With Steve Zissou - December 24 - It may do the same business or a little more than The Royal Tennenbaums. But as much as we love him, Wes Anderson is still Wes Anderson.

Fat Albert - December 25 - Hey, hey, hey! Will it be Garfield or Cheaper By The Dozen? Or will it be like teacher in the summertime... no class!

Synergy - December 29 - Paul Weitz is on his own and the buzz inside Universal is giddy.

Under $50 Million, But Happy With It
The Cookout - September 3
Resident Evil: Apocalypse- September 10
The Forgotten - September 24
Shaun of the Dead - September 24
Raise Your Voice - October 8
The Ringer - November 5
Around The Bend - October 15

Under $50 Million, But Not Happy With It
Wicker Park - September 3
Paparazzi - September 3
Cellular - September 10
Mr. 3000 - September 17
Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow - September 17
Wimbledon - September 17
First Daughter- September 24
Shall We Dance? - October 15
Alfie - October 22
The Flight of the Phoenix - October 22
Eulogy - October 29
An Unfinished Life - December 24

SHOW ME THE AWARDS

These 11 titles come out looking for success at the box office, but expect the real win to come during awards season, which leads to more box office (they hope).

Vanity Fair - September 1
Head in the Clouds - September 17
Silver City- September 17
The Motorcycle Diaries - September 24
I Heart Huckabee's - October 1
Being Julia- October 15
P.S. - October 15
Stage Beauty - October 15
Sideways - October 20
Finding Neverland - November 12
Kinsey - November 12
Beyond The Sea - November 24
A Very Long Engagement - November 26
Proof - December 24

SHOW MY THE INDIES

There are 25 major indies being released in the fall season. As you will notice, there is a lot of heat early on and almost nothing as the holidays roll around. Not all of these films can do well.

Remember Me, My Love- September 3
Warriors of Heaven & Earth- September 3
Criminal- September 10
Reconstruction- September 10
TaeGukGi- September 10
When Will I Be Loved- September 10
Enduring Love- September 17
Ghost In The Shell 2: Innocence- September 17
Goodbye Dragon Inn- September 17
Infernal Affairs- September 17
Zelary- September 17
A Dirty Shame - September 24
The Last Shot - September 24
The September Tapes - September 24
The Yes Men- September 24
Dear Frankie - October 1
In My Country - October 1
Tarnation - October 6
I Am David - October 8
Primer - October 8
Sex is Comedy - Oct 20
Asylum - October 29
Undertow - October 29
Birth - November 5
Bad Education - November 19
The Woodsman - December 24

SHOW ME THE DATE
These three films still need dates...

Shopgirl
The Aviator
The Devil's Rejects

SHOW ME THE DOOR
These three films have already moved out of 2004.

Millions
Inside Deep Throat
The Ring 2
Melinda & Melinda
Beauty Shop
A Sound of Thunder

READER OF THE DAY: THE LAWYER writes: "Who could forget the Minority Report debate that went on forever. Or the Revolutions review that NEVER MATERIALIZED. Yet Reloaded had a whole week of discussion on the Hot Button. Poor Revolutions cant get no love. Whats up with that?

Yeah there are other moments like the September 11th column, the random readers of the day that drive me loco, Daredevil getting beaten with a stick, your lack of comprehension when it comes to the greatness Mean Girls, and all the times you see a film that you really enjoy BUT CANT TALK ABOUT IT DUE TO AN EMBARGO!

I put this in caps. Since seldom if ever, do you out and out say, "This movie here, this one I got all AMPED up about months ago. Well it's this one Im reviewing now." Leaving my friend and I trying to figure out which movie you love so much. But it wouldnt be the Hot Button without that now would it?

Congrats on the anniversary, and the first one only came in at a 169 words? Wow. I like TOTALLY typed more words than that in railing against limited released films and the Dawn of the Dead remake.

As always, have a nice day..."

E ME: How do you see the fall?