November 1, 2004

Boo!

Actually, Halloween weekend scared no one away the box office. We'll see how well the Sunday estimate holds up, but even if Universal's 3-day estimate of $20.1 million for Ray falls off by a million or even two, the studio did the job it needed to do to not only keep the title high on the lists of Oscar nominee favorites, but to break the box office record for musical biopics currently held by a Best Picture nominee of 1980, Coal Miner's Daughter. It also seems sure to pass by the box office successes of Best Picture nominee Shine and Best Picture winner, Amadeus. For the sake of ethnic analysis honesty, the movie is also likely to beat What's Love Got To Do With It, which didn't get a Best Picture nod, by at least 50%.

No one at Universal would ever admit to being daunted at having to sell a biopic, a musical and a drama starring and dominated by black actors. But it is not easy. Jamie Foxx is on the rise, but he is no Denzel. Five of the last six Denzel films opened to more than $20 million… very impressive. And this weekend Universal took Jamie Foxx to Denzel levels. They deserve a strong pat on the back.

Meanwhile, for the second weekend in a row, horror was good for $40 million. Last weekend it was one film (The Grudge), this weekend two (The Grudge and Saw), but still impressive. Last year, Kill Bill, Volume 2 and Texas Chainsaw Massacre managed that figure for one weekend. As far as I can tell, there is no other such tandem success of thrillers in October in history… and as I just wrote, it happened twice in two weekends this year. Again… it may end up coming out a few million short of that in the end, but you get the idea…

Next weekend, The Incredibles arrive on Box Office Island and I expect no worse than the third biggest November opening of all time. The current #3 is Monsters Inc, with $63 million and #2 is Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets at $88 million. I would expect The Incredibles to open in the 70s.

And thus, the "holiday season" for movies begins.

The big dogs of November are The Incredibles, Alfie, The Polar Express, After The Sunset, Seed of Chucky, Bridget Jones; the Edge of Reason, National Treasure, The Spongebob Squarepants Movie, Alexander and Christmas with the Cranks ... all opening in four weekends. Then there are the major indies - Kinsey, Finding Neverland, Bad Education, A Very Long Engagement and the wide expansion of Sideways, Vera Drake, Being Julia and Stage Beauty, among others.

Of the 10 big releases, I expect at least half to be disappointing at the box office… you know who you are. And of the eight big indies, none will probably be ugly… but wheat from chaff will help define the future of these films in a hurry.

READER OF THE DAY: JIM TAYLOR writes (as delivered by The New York Times: "The good folks at Fox Searchlight have asked me to say a few words about my experience as the co-writer of their new big screen comedy, Sideways. Ordinarily I refrain from commenting
on my work, but the pitiful expression of the young man they'd sent to my compound in the Northern Yukon to deliver their request has made me reconsider. The poor fellow lost a couple of toes on the journey and was forced to eat two of his sled dogs, so I've decided to take pity on him and spend a few moments unburdening my soul.

I've managed to locate a clean piece of bark and I've pricked my finger to draw some fresh ink, but where to begin? Ah, yes, the book...

I vividly recall the day the manuscript of Rex Pickett's hilarious, poignant novel about the exploits of two men on a week of wine tasting arrived in my monthly air-drop of supplies. It was accompanied by a brief note from Alexander Payne, my longtime friend and collaborator -- "This is great. I think we can get it cheap."

I immediately sat down to read the book and from the first page I knew Alexander had uncovered a goldmine. Thinking back, I suppose what appealed to me most was how it reminded me of my younger, care-free days, traversing the country with Neal Cassidy and his gang of mad poets.

As some of you know, for twenty years now I've refused to step outside the perimeter of my compound. Call me crazy, but it keeps me sane. Sideways was to be the fourth screenplay written with Alexander and he begged me to join him in Los Angeles, just this once. Naturally I declined. I'll admit, in some ways it's been challenging to work hundreds of miles from the nearest road, telephone or electrical outlet, but the peace and quiet are unparalleled. I'm pretty sure Alexander has found the hours he's spent traveling to my place by dogsled worthwhile. Besides, it's offered him a wonderful chance to listen to dozens of excellent audio books.

On the whole our writing sessions are convivial. On those rare occasions when we do have disagreements, they are easly settled by oiling up and wrestling on the bear rug in front of my massive fireplace. In all our years of working together, only one argument has remained unresolved -- try as we might, we can't seem to come to an agreement on whether it's necessary to add an umlaut over the second vowel when it is repeated consecutively in a word. I think it's a testament to our strong working relationship that we've managed to cooeperate so productively for many years with this issue hanging over our heads.

Although wine plays a pivotal role in the screenplay, the remote location of our work environment made it nearly impossible to have any bottles at hand to inspire us. The only alcohol available up here is a pungent concoction I make myself by fermenting the partially digested berries found in moose droppings.

I don't like to give away too many of our trade secrets so I won't discuss our actual working process, but I think it wouldn't do any harm to tell you that whenever we find ourselves completely stuck, we hang a curtain in front of a lantern and act out the scene as a shadow play. Somehow this approach (visiting "Plato's Cave", we call it) helps us break loose and soar like eagles, run like jaguars, bray like donkeys.

Our first draft of Sideways nearly de-forested the hill behind the compound. It was a whopper, weighing in at 1,479 sheets of bark, which, when transcribed, roughly equals 342 conventional script pages. This draft was nearly twice as long as the book, which is generally considered a no-no. So, with a lot of hard work and a sharp bowie knife, we set about making cuts and managed to come up with a second draft that was a lean, mean 562 sheets of bark. As soon as we were finished, Alexander lashed this draft to the back of his sled and headed for Hollywood at dawn. Mush! He was in such a hurry that I didn't even get a chance to say goodbye -- I suppose he was so eager to leave because he couldn't wait to get our work into his agent's hands. Still, it would have been nice if he'd left a note or something.

On a related note: For you ladies who've written to express your concern about my well being and offered yourself in marriage, I'm happy to report that I've recently taken a bride -- a lovely local woman whose dental health leaves much to be desired, but who warms my bed at night and makes a delicious polar bear stew.

From the looks of the sky, a blizzard is approaching so I'll finish now and send the young man on his way. I'm a bit perplexed at how the folks at Fox Searchlight plan to make this text available for so many people to read on such short notice (this weekend, no less!), the courier assures me that new technology has been developed which will make this possible.

In closing, I lift a glass of Mooseberry wine, toasting all involved on the successful completion of another project. Someday I hope to see the film, but it will have to wait until my bicycle powered generator is repaired and my new wife is fit enough to bring our projector up to speed.

Best,
Jim"

E-ME: How was your 'ween?