November 22, 2004

As we head into Thanksgiving week, looking back on 2004 seems appropriate, but a little more difficult than usual.

It's not quite time for a full look at the year, but what strikes me is that this year, for all its ups and downs, isn't looking much different than other recent years. The trouble comes when you try to look at each specific film. But the core business ideals that the industry has come to accept just get sharpened and focused a little bit more each year.

This is, after all, a year in which the imperative to include critics in the rev up to the release of a big budget movie was eviscerated by Fox and The Day After Tomorrow. The film did almost 70% of its domestic business in its first 11 days (Memorial Day Weekend extended from the traditional 10 day count.). It was at over 80% of its total before the end of the third weekend. Wham bam, thank you America!

Of course, the movie marketing world has been moving towards this for a while. With so much money being spent on the straight sale… TV, TV, and TV… the in-house devaluation of the wacky, unpredictable media has grown. Smart publicity mavens have reconceived their approach with the press a bit and are rebuilding the value of media in the mix in innovative ways. But as with the notion of day-and-date DVD release as a new release format, the impact is only a slight one when low-end titles are involved. The Day After Tomorrow is not the first film to go with sharply limited media access... not by a long shot. But it was the biggest. And it was the most successful ever in using the strategy.

So far, the strategy has been embraced primarily by genre films, like Resident Evil: Apocalypse and last weekend's Seed of Chucky. But you can feel the effect on bigger films as more and more titles are screening just a day or two before release, so far just incurring the wrath of the weeklies that are forced to run reviews (or not) the week after release.

Another phenomenon has been studios showing a willingness to move major movies just weeks before they are scheduled to go out. Alfie was one such move… and it didn't take. This next weekend, we'll find out how it works for Alexander. Miramax moved Finding Neverland around the checkerboard, making a huge early push but then losing some box office momentum by the time they went into release two weekends ago… apparently now planning to linger until the movie gets some awards from someone. Fox Searchlight changed their strategy for Sideways, not moving their October release day, but keeping it simmering on very few screens until is started widening out this weekend.

None of these moves have been terribly successful. But one film that locked in right at the last minute was… Fahrenheit 9/11. Of course, that movie is a massive anomaly that should never be the foundation of strategy again, though there are more lessons to be learned from the film's evangelical experience - like The Passion of The Christ - about the audiences out there that are traditionally underserved and undermotivated. But there will eventually be a movie that moves to what seems like a safer date with a few extra weeks for tracking to intensify, and it will hit. And at that moment a new standard… another tool in the box… will be created for marketing and distribution execs.

2004 saw the return of the balls-to-the-wall horror film, kicked off last year by The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, but this year advanced by five titles that did over $50 million apiece - Butterfly Effect, Dawn of the Dead, Resident Evil: Apocalypse, The Forgotten, The Grudge - and with Universal's White Noise due in January and the production-delayed Ring 2 ready to arrive in March. Dimension is even dragging out the long-slated-for-direct-to-video The Darkness for a wide Christmas release.

Finally - for now - there is the dearth of comedy to look at… or why can't anyone make a comedy without Ben Stiller, Jim Carrey, Adam Sandler or Mike Myers anymore? Thank God for Will Farrell… at least there is one new face out there… and he's already being ground into a fine paste of repetition. Ben Stiller led three of the top 20 grossing films of the year (to date), averaging just under $100 million a piece… and not one of them won't make a lot of profit.

There have been efforts to build out new comedy stars, particularly black ones, specifically from the cast of The Original Kings of Comedy. The results have been mixed, but the effort continues. Ben Stiller is not only successful himself, but he has been the trampoline for others… it's kind of like a family cult. He does a movie with Owen Wilson and Vince is in it and then Vince does a movie with Owen Wilson and then they all turn up in cameos in Anchorman for Will Farrell. It's like a postmodern version of The Rat Pack where none of the guys but the singing garbage man can get laid. Meanwhile, Mean Girls and The School of Rock each made new stars of their own.

Comedy… unscreened…. with some gruesome murders…

Hmmm…

READER OF THE DAY: JOHNNY MAMS floats: "According to Imdb.com, Julie Delpy was born 21st December 1969-which to my math is 35. I am actually wondering why we have not heard more Oscar buzz for "Before Sunset" for both Delpy and the screenplay (which I think can sneak into one of the Orig. screenplay slots because usually the writers are the most adventurous group with regards to nods). Also, why the low burn for "A Very Long Engagement"? Remember, "Amelie" had 5 Oscar nods in 2002 (for Orig. Screenplay, Sound, Cinematography, Sound, and Best Foreign Film). I think Audrey Tautou is almost a lock for Best Actress nod because like Staunton, Bening, & Linney she has one of the few female main characters carrying a film this year. Peter Travers' review seems to indicate that it will be on his Top 10 this year, and I think Jeunet and his tech team probably have a good shot at nods. I think that you are beating "The Motorcycle Diaries" drum too strongly and discounting some other films too lightly. I believe that you and Wells are the only ones still touting Rodrigo De La Serna for a nod."

E-ME: Peter Travers? Hmmm...