December 17, 2004

Whatever happened to this holiday season's box office?

No doubt, the absence of a Lord in the Rings and/or a Harry Potter film this year makes a huge difference all but itself. Even so, there is something distinctly "so what?" about this year's crop. It's not just that there has only been one real smash (The Incredibles) this season. Sequels to Bridget Jones, Blade and Chucky have been less than lukewarm. The Oscar movies are either still waiting for release (The Aviator takes off today) or are still under $20 million (Sideways, Finding Neverland, Kinsey). Julia Roberts is looking at her worst performing film in which she stars since the bad old days of Michael Collins, hoping at best to catch up with Mona Lisa Smile's $64 million. Even the hits (Ocean's Twelve, National Treasure, The Polar Express and SpongeBob) are hardly cultural phenomena. Let's not even start on Alexander.

There are four $100 million movies in release so far this season, assuming that Ocean's Twelve makes it. I count another half dozen that have a shot at reaching that landmark, though I don't think there is one in the group that looks like a $200 million movie right now.

The potential hits are:
.....The Aviator
.....Fat Albert
.....Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
.....Meet The Fockers
.....Million Dollar Baby
.....The Phantom Of The Opera

Fat Albert is looking like a Garfield-level success, not a Cheaper by the Dozen surprise.

If Scorsese hits $80 million domestic with The Aviator, it will be his biggest grosser ever.

Meet The Fockers will likely open to more than $30 million, but $175 million is about the up-est upside possible there.

Lemony Snicket and Phantom both seem to be in an interesting, hard to figure place. They both have their origins in hugely successful worldwide phenomena from another medium. Snicket opens this weekend and looks to start in the $30m - $40m range. The reviews have been far more negative than I ever would have imagined, most often focusing on Carrey. There is the very real chance that this is a critics' thing. We'll have a better sense how audiences really feel after word of mouth starts creeping out. Phantom has had a slow start in England and will go out in limited release here in America in a couple of weeks. Logic dictates big numbers, but logic, in this regard, is often dead wrong.

That leaves Million Dollar Baby, which has no intention of making a meaningful box office contribution until sometime in January.

Of course, this weekend's release of Flight of the Phoenix is Fox's attempt at filling the commercial void that is out there, as was New Line's choice to move Blade: Trinity out of October and into December. We'll see if either of them take.

But what we'll really be watching this weekend is whether all the critics' excitement over Sideways will translate into an improved per-screen average for that film.

And, in other awards news, Ray hits $70 million this weekend and remains a virtual certainty to be the highest grossing serious Oscar contender when nominations close next month. Did you know that you have to go back two decades to find a year without at least one $100 million domestic grosser among the nominees? Of course, it could turn out that Million Dollar Baby is a $100 million-plus movie when it finally opens. But in lieu of that, you have to scratch your head.

Have a great weekend and let us know what you see…

READER OF THE DAY: SEXY HEXY writes: "You ask of Thomas Haden Church, "How can he not win?" Here's how: Morgan Freeman has been nominated three times and never won.

Granted, on each of those previous three occasions he stood very, very little chance of winning. In 1987 his STREET SMART nomination was token recognition of a lavishly critically-awarded performance in an otherwise-crummy film that no one saw. By 1989 it was clear that he wasn't a flash in the pan and would be around for a while, and he was up for the film that won everything else, but he himself would have had to outrun two guys in wheelchairs to win Best Actor and that old car just didn't move fast enough. And in 1994 stupid was as stupid did.

But it's been ten years since his last nomination. And he's now universally recognized as a great, classy actor who somehow doesn't have an Academy Award on his resume. And he's in a film that may be the front-runner for Best Picture.

Now, I love Church's performance in SIDEWAYS. He'd deserve the award just for that brilliantly sarcastic smirk and thumbs-up he gives Giamatti just before the "cards on the table" speech in the diner. But when the time comes for Academy members to fill out their ballots, who do you think they'll be more likely to vote for: Morgan Freeman, beloved Oscarless veteran? Or the guy previously known as Lowell the mechanic on WINGS? I hate to put it in those terms, but it is on precisely those terms that Oscars are frequently won. And as great as Church is, I doubt there's a soul who'd begrudge Freeman.

One last thought: up until a few weeks ago, one could say how strange it is that Hilary Swank has an Oscar while people like Julianne Moore and Kate Winslet are still waiting for their first. How weird is it going to be in February, though, to possibly be able to say that Hilary Swank has the same number of Oscars as Meryl Streep?

(Unless, of course, Streep wins her third Oscar for MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE. Which I doubt.)"

E-ME: Would you begrudge Morgan for taking the Oscar away from the mechanic on Wings?