February 11, 2005

It struck me that it might be fun to do a "The Case Against" series today… but no… too many people would have their feelings hurt. And you can probably do that for yourselves. In fact, if you e-me with your argument against (500 words or less, please), I'll try to run some of them next week.

Then I thought, maybe I'd do another Oscars 2006 preview. Nah. But here is the short list, if I had to offer one today…

(edited for a few silly leave-outs and a late addition)

1. Spielberg Munich Project - Dec - DreamWorks
2 1. The Producers - December - Universal
3. Walk The Line - November - Fox
4. The New World - November - New Line
5. Jarhead - November - Universal
6. All The King's Men - n/a - Columbia
7. Che - Unknown - Focus
8. Memoirs of A Geisha - December - Columbia
9.. Rent - November - Columbia
10. Cinderella Man - June - Universal

11. In Her Shoes - October - Fox
12. Elizabethtown - July - Paramount
13. Kingdom of Heaven - May - Fox
14. Ask The Dust - December - Paramount
15. King Kong - December - Universal
16. Shopgirl - Fall - Disney
17. Bee Season - September - Fox Searchlight
18. Hustle & Flow - n/a - Paramount
19. Brokeback Mountain - Focus
20. Proof - n/a - Miramax

You'll notice that Warner Bros and DreamWorks are completely unrepresented and that Miramax, Focus, Lions Gate, and Fox Searchlight may seem underrepresented. Well, it's a long, long way to Tipperary. The only Sundance title on the list is Hustle & Flow and it is both the only one that belongs anywhere near this list, and a real long shot, even as a contender. Cannes is looking good this year… so maybe one or two movies may emerge. But cycles are cycles and I expect next year to be the biggest major studio year in years, Universal, Fox and Columbia leading the way.

Of course, the odds that both Memoirs of a Geisha and Jarhead make the cut are long. Chris Columbus' tendency to overdo makes Rent less of a threat. And three potentially strong titles - Cinderella Man, Elizabethtown and Kingdom of Heaven - will be fighting "the summer problem."

My sense right now is that The Producers is going to be virtually impossible to beat, unless there is some real unexpected problem. Remember, the original was not nominated for Best Picture, though it did win Screenplay for Mel Brooks. And while King Kong will rampage, potentially outgrossing the entire domestic run of The Producers in its first weekend, no other film fits the Academy profile as well.

Meanwhile, James Mangold shoots to be next year's Taylor Hackford, overcoming a mixed history (and no films as good as some of Hackford's underappreciated gems) with a solid gold story and two great actors, one of whom (Ms. Witherspoon) bleeds stardom and, given the heavy male load on the list of titles above, has already got to be the frontrunner to win Best Actress, with Zhang Ziyi a likely co-nominee and Cameron Diaz, Kirsten Dunst, Naomi Watts and either Rosario Dawson or Idina Menzel from Rent all pushing for contention.

And then there are Foxx, Gyllenhaal, Saarsgard and Chris Cooper… all just from Jarhead. Oy!

If you thought Best Actor was brutal this year, wait until you start with Nathan Lane, Joaquin Phoenix, Sean Penn, Colin Farrell (in the new Malick) and Team Jarhead as your kickoff! Russell Crowe may flex his muscles and Orlando Bloom may fall to the wayside, but how will guys like Terrance Howard and Taye Diggs find their way?

Anyway… don't want to do an Oscar 2006 preview… it's just too early…

The weekend is here… hallelujah!

E-ME:

The Case for Sideways
The Case for The Aviator
The Case for Million Dollar Baby

Sundance Wrap-Up
Sundance Preview Part I
Sundance Preview Part 2