March 11 , 2005

As THB heads off into a Bermuda-induced vacation for the next couple of weeks, the news is, as I'm sure you've noticed, boring itself into the ground. Can the world take another Miramax think piece? Can Harvey Weinstein get any more journalists to sell the story that getting billions for Wall Street for his "big ideas" is going to be a snap? Can the lack of reaction, beyond the excellent first days over coverage by the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, to Howard Stringer's ascension be any clearer an indictment of the lack of passion and shallowness of knowledge plaguing entertainment journalism these days? Can we become any less relevant?

Sigh… the island awaits.

I asked the question the other day and got a surprisingly limited response from readers… what devices/tools/technology would really rock things right now? Here are some thoughts…

The concept of Apple's latest iPod product, the Shuffle, is a great example of an extender on existing technology. It is also a gateway technology because of the simplicity and the price point. $100 mean anyone with a computer can play. The iTunes interface is a free download (and comes with the Shuffle as well) and if you just want to have a tool with which to play a couple of dozen of your favorite CDs, it is an easy buy. And for teens, fuhgedaboudit. Instead of sending your kid to school with $400-plus little machine that is easily targeted by punks and awkward to carry around comfortably every minute of the day, there is now a $100 pack of gum that has enough music on it to last through any day and can be slipped into any pocket - pant or shirt - without complication. Plus, the pressure to fill 20 gig or 40 gig of space - almost a thousand albums for the larger device, is reduced.

It is a great set of iPod training wheels. And that's just what it is, since eventually one will grow out of the amusement over that and look for a place to put all their music. And then, you need the bigger iPod.

Or do you?

Who is going to build the stereo with the built-in digital music hard drive?

Why am I still using a plastic cassette adapter or a really lame FM transmitter to get my music playing on my car stereo system?

Where are the first 20 gig handhelds… which will not be a great place for the processing power that major computer applications need for a while, but can easily hold hundreds of albums and be a much more sophisticated version of the iPod as well as a a phone and PDA?

Who will build the first VCR/DVD player/recorder that plugs into the phone jack and receives the feed from MovieLink or other studio owned digital movie sources so we are, finally, not required to watch those downloads on our computers?

Ironically, Sony already has a desktop system on the market that is a real breakthrough, incorporating a computer, a massive hard drive, a Digital Video Recorder, and a DVD burner all in one. Not only that, it is a wonderful piece of design, with wireless keyboard and mouse and a barely-there processing box. It is, finally, the computer of the future. But has anyone even heard about it? I only know about it because I ran into it - and it's $1800 price point - at Fry's one day… just sitting there like any other "how big a hard drive on this one" computer. It's almost too cool for school… does all that stuff on one computer really work? If it does, spending half as much for 'just another computer" seems like a fools errand to me.

But where is the household networking wave? Who is going to make the box that has one point of entry for your satellite or cable and gives you feeds all over the house that can be controlled individually, with a DVR whose stored shows can be seen in any connected room, say, four TV locations and the processor for $2000?

This is era of harnessing all of our toys.

In the era of the 200 hour DVR, the next wave will be tools that help recorder owners sort through all of the stuff that they've saved.

Soon, the television business will face a similar problem to the one the movie business has created for itself with DVD proliferation… as more and more people can time shift programming to their own convenience and dump commercials, how do you create the kind of water cooler wave that drives hits now?

Back at the movies… as far as I can tell, electronic concession stands are a horrible failure, making the low-paid kids who work the counter all the more confused and tending to take more time for the consumer, not less.

My most powerful idea, I think, remains the return of a second run theatrical experience. I don't believe we are going to see flexible pricing any time soon. But by creating a second tier exhibition opportunity, there is flexibility there. And most importantly, it is a way of keeping DVD addicts going to the theater to have the theatrical experience. It is true enough to say now that the profit in this business is in Home Entertainment… what used to be part of what was called an ancillary market. But that does not make throwing away theatrical dollars sensible. And the DVD bubble is a dangerous basket in which to put all your eggs.

I also believe that a smart major could be setting up the future by doing a serious Home Entertainment program for world cinema. Yes, it may be a loss leader right now. But the world is getting smaller and smaller. And one film that converts to a theatrical or a great domestic remake is enough to make it a profitable effort in the long run.

At the very least, an exhibitor like Laemmle or Landmark should be supported in breaking the current programming system a bit and building "World Cinemas" in half a dozen major arthouse markets. In each of the six theaters, run a double bill of the top two films that do not already have domestic distribution deals from six different major film producing countries. Maybe split the week so you have 12 countries represented. A set up like this cannot hurt an eventual domestic deal since it is such a limited exhibition venue (and the film's owners would be getting paid anyway) and if a film or two catches fire, make the placement of the film into another house in the chain in that market part of the deal.

But how likely are we to ever see Cuore Sacro or Buenos Aires 100 Kilometros in Los Angeles, much less the American Midwest without some system to make it happen?

I guess one could argue that the indies and dependents are doing this for us… picking the cream of the crop. But I call "bullshit" on that. I'm glad that someone is watching, but this is a business of the marketplace, not just guys who try to figure out what they can sell in America. Studios spend hundreds of million in development, the current notion of Research & Development. But here is a concept that can pay for itself - perhaps even have wild profits some years - and build a relationship with people who are willing - nay, anxious - to pay to go see movies in a theater.

Of course, few countries have enough films made domestically to support 52 weeks a year in exhibition. But the movie business has gotten out of the mindset of creating habits - other than buying DVDs - for movie lovers. An arthouse lover in Los Angeles has a handful of choices and often times has run out of choices when many screens are taken up with longer-running films. How many would just show up at World Cinema West Hollywood with a half dozen completely blind, but home tested titles to take a chance with? Why do we keep reading about trying to get people who like watching football on TV to show up at a movie theater so they can pay to watch it on a bigger screen when there is a world of movies that haven't been tapped?

On the flip side, when is someone going to build one great movie palace in Los Angeles or New York again? 2000 seats. Two balconies. Built for premieres and one week runs of the biggest movies.

Again, the goal is not just profit, but the perpetuation of the thrill of the theatrical experience. American Cinematheque is wonderful, but what about programming a geat venue with a commercial eye? It used to be The Dome in L.A., but somehow the luster faded with the building of the Arclight next door.

Just as the Kodak Theater was built for the needs of the Oscars, this venue could be built with an eye to premieres. Those bookings would make it more financially viable in the dog days of spring. But during seven months of the year, you have major films coming hot and heavy and people would pay a premium to see them in the best venue in the world. Better, they would have an experience that would leave them hungry for more.

It all comes back to the genius of the extension of the iPod product line with The Shuffle. How do people use the existing successful product? How can we capitalize on that? Great design… great marketing… but mostly, great ideas that speak to the core of the audience.

Why hasn't anyone done the audience track on horror movies or comedies on DVD? Offer four or five different real audience experiences… people laughing or screaming or whatever. It would be so cheap to do these for DVD and wouldn't it be fun to bring a bit of that theatrical experience home? Maybe it would be annoying. Maybe it would be good for slumber parties. Maybe people would use the "urban" background, but not the "suburban" one because polite laughter isn't as fun. But why not try it?

Why not try everything… anything… so long as it can be tried within a reasonable cost. The answer is not to be "right" as you roll things out. (Insert Bill Goldman quote here.) The answer is to reach higher… higher… higher…

Then go to Bermuda.

E-ME: See you here on March 28. Keep an eye out for me on The Hot Blog and MCN.