May 3, 2005

This is where it gets really ugly.

Actually, that's not 100% true. It got ugly once the list got past Eddie Murphy at #6... not always "ugly," but much more iffy. I also made an error in leaving Russell Crowe off the Top Ten. Upon reflection, I would now place him in the #5 slot, pushing Tom Hanks down and pushing Steve Martin out of the Top Ten. To read about the change check out yesterday's column, where I go into detail about Mr. Crowe.

As for the rest of yesterday's Top Eleven, numbers 7 through 11 all have very specific limitations. And I would not be surprised to see two of those four to fall down the list before the year is over.

As we move on to the next group, the split between perception and fiscal reality really starts to assert itself. Did you know, for instance, that outside of Batman Forever, last weekend's opening of The Interpreter is Nicole Kidman's career best? Reese Witherspoon has beaten that career-best twice already. And how do you factor in Julia Roberts, who hasn't really had a major success - outside of the Ocean's gang bangs - since 2000's Erin Brockovich?

The movie star secret, by the way, of the Ocean's movies is that almost every one of those stars (and Soderbergh) have needed the boost of these films more than the film needed any one of them. Matt Damon has found a second franchise during the run in Bourne, but he's also flopped a couple of times and did meaningless cameos in a handful of films. Brad Pitt's had his first $100 million non-Ocean's film since 1995's Se7en, but it took one of the biggest budgets in history and a high-profile supporting cast to take Troy there. Clooney has fought off movie stardom, oddly, with small, smart films. But Intolerable Cruelty still did over $100 million worldwide and memories of The Perfect Storm still loom. International value has kept Catherine Zeta-Jones above the fray, though Soderbergh has been her best ally, both in O12 and Traffic.

But getting back to the women...

Nicole Kidman can open a movie. But, she's made a bunch of arthouse/Oscarbait movies and even her mainstream tastes have been more complex than commercial. You have to go back to The Peacemaker and Practical Magic to find as conventional a film as The Interpreter in her career. Her aesthetic ambition is impressive, even when the films come up short. But how much of a box office draw is she, really? Well, The Stepford Wives really didn't have much commercial going for it except for Kidman and it opened to $21 million.

Reese Witherspoon has had three big comic hits - and two indie flops - in this millennium. But as her great success has been in comedy, it is not a shock that her value overseas is limited... comedy tends not to travel. Like Kidman, there is a lot of unsafe career choices in there. Witherspoon is one of the rare young movie stars who has never been seduced into a massive franchise film. If I were her production partner, finding her version of Ocean's Eleven would be a huge priority. She may well get her first Oscar nomination this fall for Walk The Line and Just Like Heaven is rumored to be very commercial and, perhaps, the breakthrough movie for co-star Mark Ruffalo (his fifth or sixth commercial breakthrough role). But she won't be breaking the $180 million worldwide ceiling anytime soon.

Julia Roberts is playing with her kids. And that may be the best strategy right now. She can return to the game in a year or two as a "middle aged woman"... not that there's anything wrong with that. Roberts' 1999/2000 run of Notting Hill, Runaway Bride, and Erin Brockovich was remarkable and reestablished her as one of the two or three biggest movie stars in the world. But while she had Opener's Hangover for The Mexican and America's Sweethearts, those two films seemed to wear out her welcome. What would Roberts/Gere/Marshall III open to, do worldwide? That's the question for Ms. Roberts' potential employers.

Sandra Bullock is another "victim" of being much more successful as a comedienne than anything else. Both Miss Congeniality and Two Weeks Notice managed to pass $200 million worldwide. Yet in her last dozen films, those are the only two that even came close to the $100 million mark domestically. Her films, like Bruce Willis', pretty much always open to more than $10 million. But the end results are not as pretty. Maybe she and Willis ought to team up for an action comedy...

Jennifer Lopez - Gigli and a lot of bad behavior has distracted many from the real value of this cross-medium actress. But since she broke out in Out of Sight, seven of her nine films have opened in the teens, almost completely based on her drawing power (and varying marketing efforts). The downside is a lack of upside. No $100 million movies domestically and of the J-Lo driven vehicles, only Maid in Manhattan passed the mark worldwide.

Drew Barrymore - Since Drew heated up after The Wedding Singer and the Fox combo of Ever After and Never Been Kissed, she has been a bit of a mystery. The Charlie's Angels franchise was a step up in class, but with a runaway budget on the first film and nearly as much spent on the second, the roughly $265 million worldwide each film did was a pyrrhic victory. The only other film to crack $40 million domestic was 50 First Dates, which teamed her up with Mr. #3, Adam Sandler. Yet, with the exception of the dumped Duplex (a weight on the Ben Stiller value as well), she is still a $10 million-plus opener. If Stiller is the highest ranking "need-the-right-co-star" movie star in the land, Ms. Barrymore is the highest ranked woman in this category.

Cameron Diaz has got one of the least clear track records of all the money stars in this survey. Since consecutive summers of My Best Friend's Wedding and There's Something About Mary catapulted her into the A-list, she has been the lead in just one leading-star-driven vehicle, The Sweetest Thing. There have been five films with more than $100 million in domestic box office, but two were animated, two were Angel-ic and one was a Tom Cruise film that barely hit the nine figure mark. Her second clear indicator will be In Her Shoes, which Fox will release as Oscar bait in the fall. Diaz has made some wonderful choices for herself. But as a power movie star? If you don't take the lead, no one will ever know how powerful you really are... or aren't.

Halle Berry - It wouldn't be fair to turn a blind eye to Halle Berry's last seven films. The X-Men franchise, Bond, Swordfish and, on the other tack, Monster's Ball, don't really tell us anything. But Gothika and Catwoman both opened to more than $15 million with the marketing laying squarely on Berry's shoulders. On the other hand, both films failed to pass $60 million domestic. Gothika did $140 million worldwide, but it was a thriller directed by a French movie star, so one wonders what the rest of the world sees when they look at that film.

Angelina Jolie - First it looked like Jolie really helped launch The Bone Collector with bigger star Denzel Washington. Gone in 60 Seconds and Tomb Raider gave her back to back summer $100 million movies with big openings. But Original Sin, Life or Something Like It and Beyond Borders brought the excitement down to earth. PG-13 and skintight seemed to be the drawing card for Ms. Jolie. But Taking Lives' $11 million star was more encouraging. Her other three films last year were all cameos. Will Mr. & Mrs. Smith make things clearer or blurrier? We'll know next month.

Hilary Duff has only had five films in which she played a significant role. Only the most recent one, Raise Your Voice, failed to open to over $10 million or gross less than $40 million. How long will she be a cute teen draw? Hard to say. But as long as she keeps the numbers small, she seems a solid bet for now.

Lindsey Lohan has just three post-puberty films. She deserves all the actor's credit for Confessions of Teenage Drama Queen's $9 million opening. Freaky Friday and Mean Girls both had a lot going for them aside from her fame. There is no question that she is one of the hottest magazine properties of the moment. But as a box office draw... the proof is on the way.

And The Men...

Leonardo diCaprio has been consistently hanging around that $200 million worldwide mark. Catch Me If You Can did almost twice that, but it had Spielberg & Hanks as well. He's only made six films since Titanic made him a worldwide phenom. The Aviator was the first big movie that really centered on him and him alone... and it was not as big as the films that had more support. The burst that would propel him into the Top Ten is still to come.

Mel Gibson is, it seems, in virtual retirement from acting. August will mark three years since his last starring role in a film. If he were to get back in the game, even at 50 years of age (which he'll be next year), he would catapult into the top five.

Bruce Willis is a guy who can still draw a crowd... but his taste in projects (or perhaps the projects offered him) have slipped into iffy territory. Willis' record of opening movies is a sight to behold. Seven of his last ten films have opened to over $10 million. The Whole Ten Yards, Hart's War and The Story of Us are the exceptions. The trouble is, none of those ten titles grossed $100 million domestic. Only one, Unbreakable, got past $75 million. When you see a title like Hostage, really dumped into the marketplace, opening to $10.2 million, you can see that Willis may be the biggest waste of a marketable draw in the business.

Vince Vaughn drew a lot of negative e-mail comments after his name came up twice in yesterday's Part One column. But the closer you look, the harder it is to deny him. Look the dragon right in the mouth. Even though the Van Sant Psycho remake only grossed $22 million domestic, it opened to over $10 million. And so has every one of the seven films Vaughn has been in since then that opened on more than 200 screens. I can't say I'd credit him with the opening of The Cell or the Travolta co-starrer Domestic Disturbance. But Old School? Lots of credit to Will Ferrell, but you have to credit Vaughn more than Luke Wilson. Starsky & Hutch was a co-star role, but heavily marketed as a counterbalance to the comedy duo. Dodgeball was Vaughn's lead, unquestionably. And, more importantly, it was a leggy movie by today's summer standards. Grouse all you like, but from There's Something About Mary on, Ben Stiller has had four $100 million grosser in thirteen widely released tries. There was Mary, two Parents/Fockers and Dodgeball. Perhaps we'll have to wait for next year's The Break Up for people to take him completely seriously. But he sure has a lot of successful coincidences under his belt.

John Travolta has made nine films released in this decade. Only Lucky Numbers and the barely released A Love Song For Bobby Long have failed to open to $10 million or more. In fact, his last two wide releases have opened to $22 million and $23 million. But in both cases, the films failed to crack $100 million worldwide. Even the Gigli-like reviewed Battlefield Earth opened to $11 million. Travolta is at his most potent here in the U.S. His career high mark is Face/Off's $245 million worldwide. He hasn't had a worldwide $100 million grosser since 2001's Swordfish or a domestic $100 million film since 1999's The General's Daughter.

Vin Diesel is a curious star. Five of his last six films opened to more than $10 million, two in the 40s, and one each in the 30s and 20s. xXx did $277 million worldwide. Even though A Man Apart and The Chronicles of Riddick ended being - pretty much - disasters, they opened. And The Pacifier is a legitimate hit, especially here at home,

Martin Lawrence - This former box office sure-bet spent 2004 on the shelf after teaming/coattailing Will Smith on Bad Boys II in 2003. Just before that, National Security, Black Knight and What's The Worst That Could Happen? all opened, but also fell short once in the market place.

Ice Cube - He's had nine films released in the last five years. Only Ghost of Mars and Torque came up short of a $10 million opening. The downside? No $100 million movies this decade... not domestic or foreign. The upside? His films have been cheap to produce.

Johnny Depp - The perception and the reality of the Johnny Depp business are quite different right now. He is, no doubt, beloved among actors in L.A. and N.Y. But since Pirates of the Caribbean blew him up, he's had surprisingly strong openings of $18 and $24 million. However, neither Once Upon A Time in Mexico nor Secret Window ended up passing the $100 million mark worldwide, even though they were in the international-friendly action/thriller genre. Ridden for Oscar for months, Finding Neverland broke the $100 million worldwide mark with $116 million. And despite doing back-to-back Pirates of the Caribbean sequels, he will rush back to high-quality, commercially-unfriendly films as soon as possible.

Ashton Kutcher is another actor whose value a lot of people like to minimize. The most glaring weakness is a lack of $100 million hits. Cheaper By The Dozen really isn't his movie and the only other film that has grossed as much as $100 million worldwide - none have done it domestically - is Just Married, which got to the massive $102 million. That said, he opens. Yes, A Lot Like Love didn't get to $10 million to start, but it was barely sold and came less than a month after Guess Who opened to $21 million and then, apparently, dropped off a word-of-mouth cliff. His one other short-started was a long-shelved dog, My Boss's Daughter, that was dumped in late August by Miramax. Squirm all you want, but anyone who is four of six with over $15 million starts is not just wind.

1. Will Smith
2. Tom Cruise
3. Adam Sandler
4. Jim Carrey
5. Russell Crowe
6. Tom Hanks
7. Eddie Murphy
8. Ben Stiller and...
9. Will Farrell
10. Denzel Washington
11. Steve Martin
12. Reese Witherspoon
13. Bruce Willis
14. Nicole Kidman
15. Leonardo DiCaprio
16. Julia Roberts
17. Vince Vaughn
18. John Travolta
19. Sandra Bullock
20. Mel Gibson (semi-retired)
21. Jennifer Lopez
22. Hilary Duff
23. Vin Diesel
24. Halle Berry
25. Drew Barrymore
26. Angelina Jolie
27. Lindsay Lohan
28. Cameron Diaz
29. Johnny Depp
30. Ice Cube

And... (In alphabetical order)

Nic Cage
George Clooney
Matt Damon
Colin Farrell
Harrison Ford
Kate Hudson
Ashton Kutcher
Martin Lawrence
Jet Li
Matthew MacConaughey
Jack Nicholson
Brad Pitt
Keanu Reeves
The Rock
Billy Bob Thornton

Plus...

Jessica Alba
Tim Allen
Kate Beckinsale
Pierce Brosnan
Amanda Bynes
Kevin Costner
John Cusack
Jennifer Garner
Cuba Gooding, Jr
Kate Hudson
Britney Murphy
Chris Rock
Kurt Russell
Wesley Snipes
The Wayans Bros.
Renee Zellweger (added 4p, 5/2/05)

Arnold Schwarzenegger (retired)

On Thursday on MCN... anticipating which summer movies could propel which actors into The Cash Class.

E-ME. Money isn't everything... I know...