May 4, 2005

The first career casualty of the summer is Ice Cube's crossover career. It doesn't much matter that the xXx: State Of The Union was a sequel to an not-terribly-well-loved film or that it was a pre-May release or that the title was iffy and the outdoor campaign and one-sheet were not evocative of much of anything. Ice's name was over the title... Ice takes the heat. Melted Cube.

The summer is, along with Nov/Dec, the time when careers can skyrocket or flame out. Judgments will be made on Russell Crowe, Tom Cruise, and Adam Sandler as their films hit the multiplex... but it won't matter much. Crowe is in another period drama that will be seen as successful as long as it flirts with $100 million and very successful if it passes the mark. Cruise is teamed with Spielberg and the only way they get hurt, in perception, is if the film stalls out... but no one sees that in the offing. And Sandler is all but guaranteed to hit his now-expected $150 million mark, very possibly more than half way there on the opening four-day weekend.

But there are a lot of actors, established and not-so-established, who will either be a lot happier or looking for work in television before September 1 rolls around.

One guy who is going to be endlessly discussed, but who will not get much of a bump from being in what is likely to be the biggest film of the summer is Hayden Christiansen. Sadly for him, the mask and James Earl Jones are the real stars of the film. And look for the sales of tickets of On Golden Pond on Broadway, starring Jones, to get a boost from all the hype.

ESTABLISHED STARS WHO ARE ON THE LINE

Jennifer Connelly - Is she a leading woman or is she just a really great supporting actor? Dark Water is not the place you would expect to see her career turn, but if she can't match Buffy, The Scooby-Doo Slayer, thrill for thrill, her value will drop.

Johnny Depp - One of Hollywood's favorite actors has become box office in the last couple of years. He has two Pirates of the Caribbean sequels on the way, so Charlie & The Chocolate Factory can be a beloved flop and not really change the bankability too much. But if the film, completely sold on Johnny, doesn't do well, the question of whether he is a one-phenom wonder will get discussed... a lot.

Hilary Duff - She has a very specific niche working very well. But The Perfect Man is a tough movie to sell when it's her mom's perfect man, not hers, at issue. If the film does $50 million, her place at the table remains the same. If it becomes a summer surprise, it could raise her stock higher than most think is possible.

Will Ferrell - Ferrell has two movies in which he stars and a sure-to-be-great cameo in The Wedding Crashers. If Bewitched tanks, he will share the heat with Nicole Kidman and Nora Ephron. If Kicking & Screaming does a lot of business, as the first big comedy of the summer, his star will keep rising, no matter how iffy the film. And he has a lot more already being filmed and being prepped. So, Ferrell's exposure this summer is limited. But there is upside if he makes two low-expectation films do better than expected.

Angelina Jolie - Mr. & Mrs. Smith seems like a perfect role... sexy, seductive and violent. She's already burnt past the idea that she's going to be a romantic comedienne. But the success or failure of this film will have a lot to do with determining her viability as a leading actress in future.

Nicole Kidman - Bewitched is her second meta-comedy in two summers. Kidman gets a lot of credit for keeping Stepford from being a total write-off. Plus, she's getting an odd backwards benefit from that film... low expectations for Bewitched. So if she and Will Ferrell can get the film over $100 million, it will be seen as a huge win. And if it really tanks, she'll have to live with the stench for 18 months or so before her next film comes around.

Martin Lawrence - Rebound is a perfect name for his next film. Yeah, he was in Bad Boys II. But so was Big Willie. His last few comedies have had diminishing returns. He needs this one to work or the box office question combined with a reputation as being a handful on set will tighten up the opportunities again.

Jennifer Lopez - Ben Affleck hasn't gotten out of the orbit of Jen & Gigli. But this film should put J-Lo back in go-go mode. In fact, there is a chance that this could be her biggest film to date, surpassing Maid In Manhattan both here and worldwide. Just as Cinderella is an eternal global story, so is a tough mother-in-law. And Ms. Lopez is quite charming and effective in the film.

Steve Martin - After a long slump, Mr. Martin broke out with two big hits in a row. The Pink Panther smells of danger, but word is that Sony will reposition the former MGM product as a family comedy... and who knows? It could work. If it doesn't, credit for the last couple films fades quickly. If it does, Martin will accelerate in a way that no one really saw coming. And he has a prestige picture, Shopgirl, coming up at Disney.

Brad Pitt - The world loved Brad Pitt in Troy... but did they really? No one is 100% sure how to read this super-celebrity's ability to actually draw audience. Mr. & Mrs. Smith should be a clearer indicator. And more than almost any other actor this summer, his film will be watched with an eye to the international market, where it is assumed that he is mighty-mighty.

Billy Bob Thornton - Bad Santa is really Billy Bob's only major solo lead release in a film (though one could argue Pushing Tin). Bad News Bears is the next. The idea that BBT can be bankable as a lead actor is going to become clearer. If it's a big hit, it could mean millions of dollars to his asking prince.

Renee Zellweger - Coming off a miss with the Bridget Jones sequel, Zellweger and her Oscar are back to prove their value in performance and audience drawing here. A success will confirm her go-to-status as the must-have co-star.

THE NEXT TIER - LOOKING TO PUSH FORWARD

John Cusack - He's a well-thought-of star with a mixed record. Here he is in the summer again with another romantic comedy in Must Love Dogs. He could use a success.

Kate Hudson - She's opened her last couple of films, but her real value is still quite the mystery, much like Skeleton Key. Here's another chance to prove her worth.

Scarlett Johansson - She's made very smart strategic decisions with her young career and has both men and women paying attention. So here is her Michael Bay movie, skintight future suit on The Island and leather bustier off. Can the actress who has made bank on being a mystery stand up to the exposure? Is she an actress or a movie star? We should know clearly after this.

Diane Lane - She's gorgeous, but aging. She has a strong cable and DVD following for Under The Tuscan Sun and people still talk about the train screen in Unfaithful. But it would help to have a solid summer success with Must Love Dogs... $50 million or more, please.

Jet Li - Can he make money without a major co-star or being presented by Quentin Tarantino? If he can take Unleashed to over $30 million, he will raise eyebrows.

Lindsay Lohan - Her celebrity rose a lot faster than her box office numbers. Herbie is the star of their movie, but Lohan is the tiger in the tank. Is her fame already burning people out?

Ewan McGregor - He not only co-stars on The Island, but continues as Obi-Wan Kenobi in the final Star Wars film. But does he get credit for what will likely be the biggest film of the summer? Nope. McGregor remains a mystery. But if he can get some movie star cred with Scarlett by his side, producers will reconsider whether he can open a movie.

Seann William Scott - He's had a good run, given his limited range. And Dukes of Hazzard doesn't seem to be much of a stretch. He was very, very hot for a short while. He needs to stoke the coals or he could start fading away right... now.

Rob Schneider - He can do it. He can do it all night. This Sandler writ small is kind of the gross out Hilary Duff. He has a certain slot. But there is hope at Sony that this sequel to Deuce Bigalow will push him up a level.

THE HOPEFUL SUPPORTING

Mos Def - Is The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy a surprise hit or a one-week wonder? We'll know soon, but his notices have been good and there are many who would like to see him in the role that Jamie Foxx negotiated his way out of in Dreamgirls. The likely answer to this summer is that his status remains the same.

Zooey Deschanel - Regardless of the box office fate of The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy, she remains in pretty much the same place. A pretty, interesting, quirky actress.

Mike Epps - In the Ed Norton role in The Honeymooners, Epps hopes to find among white audiences the same love he's got with black audiences. A surprise success could get him a whole different set of meetings.

Jane Fonda - Monster in Law is her big comeback and comeback strong she does. Cameron Crowe may end up regretting passing on her for Elizabethtown as her stock rises from this film... and, unlike Streisand, she wants to keep working.

Freddie Highmore - He was so cute and emotional in the last Johnny Depp movie and now he's the title character in Charlie & The Chocolate Factory. How long will he remain cute?

Katie Holmes - Batman Begins is her coming out party and we'll all be shocked if she doesn come out as the female lead in Mission: Impossible III. Our little Joey's all growns up now.

Heath Ledger - His character role in Lords of Dogtown could make him the coolest guy over 25 for teens this summer. He'll also turn up in The Brothers Grimm, whose box office should live up to the title. But Dogtown is the kind of career changing role that every pretty boy seems desperate to find.

Heather Locklear - She's co-starring with Hilary Duff in The Perfect Man and her next putative step towards film instead of TV. We'll see.

Rachel McAdams - Last year's The Notebook was one of the big surprises of the summer. Now, she has two shots at the gold ring. She co-stars in New Line's hot title The Wedding Crashers and gets to be the femme fatale of Red Eye, a title that is getting laughs when the trailer runs in theaters, but still could turn out to be a late summer surprise.

Julian McMahon - The cut-up from Nip/Tuck gets to be truly evil in The Fantastic Four. But that mask has worse cheekbones than his face. What's next?

Cillian Murphy - He is Batman Begin's Scarecrow and another psychopath in Red Eye. 28 Days Later got him a lot of attention. He sinks or swims this summer.

THE WANNA BE BREAK OUT STARS

Jessica Alba - Can Fantastic Four turn this adorable young thing into a movie star? Dubious. And trying to fill Jackie Bissett's wet white T-shirt in the remake of The Deep (which I'm not even sure is still on the summer schedule) is kinda rough. (Paul Walker is no Nick Nolte either.) But if we are all underestimating Fantastic Four, the sky is the limit

Christian Bale - He's Batman. He's buff. And he's never quite connected with audiences. What will this 60 or 80 million eyeballs have to say about that?

Alexis Bleidel - She's a TV start trying to jump the wall. Following up Sin City, she's in The Sisterhood of The Traveling Pants, which has a cult following. OR is it just a big TV show?

Orlando Bloom - Kingdom of Heaven is on his shoulders. Can he carry the weight? This is the first true test of his stardom. The whole world's watching.

Steve Carrell - From a Jim Carrey/Will Ferrell pin cushion to the star of his own film (and his own TV comedy). If it works, he could be the next Rob Schneider... which won't get him a lunch with Patrick Goldstein, but is a good career place to be.

Cedric The Entertainer - You can't replace Jackie Gleason, but Cedric has a charm of his own and The Honeymooners is his big crossover test.... until the next one.

Michael Chiklis - He's a cult TV star covered in rocks. The film has to be pretty huge for him to break out.

Paris Hilton - Warner Bros. is banking on people wanting to see her killed in House of Wax. But if they can watch her screw up for free on TV and watch her screw for free on the internet, will they pay to watch her die? No one had much faith in her appeal before, so maybe this will be a surprise and the feature of Green Acres is just around the corner.

Emile Hirsch - He's one of those actors that everyone he works with loves and always seems on the verge of being the next Depp. In Lords of Dogtown, he has two co-stars in the central roles in the film. Is this the breakout?

Terence Howard - Hustle & Flow is a near perfect role for this tough guy with the gentle eyes of a lost soul. Can Paramount make it the crossover surprise of the summer? That's the goal. If they can, Howard will finally move up to major studio films and out of the "urban" ghetto.

Johnny Knoxville - This Jackass star has had small film roles, but this summer he is a Duke boy and in the fall, he headlines a Ferrelly Bros. comedy for Searchlight, so if he is going to blow up, this is the summer for it.

Jessica Simpson - Who cares whether she and her husband are breaking up? The real question is, "Can she bring Daisy Dukes back into style?" Is she chicken, fish, or buffalo on the big screen? No one knows. The TV show suggests trouble, but never could a blonde whose father knows her bra size out!

Amber Tamblyn - She's broken through on TV, but she's a bit more average than her Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants co-star, Ms. Bleidel. A tough step up.

Vince Vaughn - He's had a great run lately, but if The Wedding Crashers does what studios other than New Line fear it can, he becomes a major, major comedy player, on par with his Old School co-star Will Ferrell. This is the big break of Vaughn's career second act.

Owen Wilson - He's pretty well stuck in co-star land, even though you often hear, "He was the best thing in the movie." The Wedding Crashers gives him the chance to go from 65 to 85 in a hurry.

E-ME. Who is your favorite candidate for a break out or a break down?