June 7, 2005

Some random thoughts, since I don't have any cohesive ones in the midst of my endless jet lag...

Are films of the genre of Cinderella Man underrepresented? I'm not 100% sure how to classify them, but glossy period dramas (even about poverty) about real life underdog heroes clearly have an audience. For me, the gloss grates. I am fine with reality being dramatized, but I'm not comfy with it being melodramatized. Of course, the third of the Russell/Ron trilogy will have to be some real life figure who dies slowly of some disease... something like D.O.A. in real life. (Oy... that remake would be about perfect for them...)

There are 148 films that got to $100 million after a month or more... only 37 in this decade. Two of those titles are Seabiscuit (38 days) and A Beautiful Mind (44 days).

Now... I'm not a big fan of this movie. I think it's a step backwards for Ron Howard and just isn't a great piece of drama. That said, $18.3 million is plenty to start this film towards $100 million, considering the primary audience for the film is very patient. Of course, I'm not saying it's a sure bet. All I'm saying is that we don't know and it wouldn't be a real shock if the film failed to pass $60 million or if it went on to pass $120 million.

There is a new study from The Dove Foundation on the success of G-rated films in comparison to R-rated films. They claim a profitability formula, which I find pretty iffy. But let's get beyond that.

Only 5% of films released, according to Dove's numbers, are rated G. And that tells much of the story.

Disney releases, according to Dove's numbers, 61% of all G-rated movies in the domestic market. Disney's 20 G-rated releases during 2000-2004 averaged worldwide box office of $222 million. Impressive. But that figure is much more impressive than it might be based on two films, Pixar's Monster's Inc, and Finding Nemo. Remove them from the list and the average drops to $122 million worldwide. Of those 18 films, only 7 grossed more than $100 million worldwide.

What percentage of the box office for the two Pixar films is based on their G ratings? I don't know. But note that the other three members of the Top Five All Time CG Animation films list (#1, #3 & #4) were all rated PG... didn't seem to be a problem.

Of course, they're not completely insane, as only six movies in history have ever grossed $200 million domestic with an R rating, only ten films in history have ever grossed $400 million worldwide with an R rating and in the Top 30 of All Time Worldwide only The Matrix Reloaded (#18) and Passion of the Christ (#26) made it with their R ratings.

On the other hand, only 2 G-rated films are in that Top 30, Finding Nemo (#10) and The Lion King (#16).

Take a look for yourself.

Today is a travel day... tomorrow, I write from the Seattle International Film Festival.

E-ME. G, R or more?