June 29, 2005

FORWARD TO THE PAST
Pt 1

Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV

So the ancient joke goes... when a woman raises her daughter by taking all the things that her mother did wrong into account, what does her daughter become? Her grandmother.

The cycle is, it seems, as basic as human life itself. It doesn't discriminate between race, creed or color... or wealth or intelligence, for that matter

If we live 40 influential years in our lives, say from 20 to 60, we are really only around for a couple of generational cycles. Is it coincidence that we are in an 80s retro cycle as I turn 40? I think no. We don't seem to be going into a 1930s or 1940s cycle... ever.

Is it a surprise that Steven Soderbergh is reaching for 70s era filmmaking by making more films and trying to infuse ideas into everything he does... even Ocean's 12? The only surprise about Spielberg making movies faster is that it took him so long to get there after spending most of his career emulating the last generation of studio system directors, as opposed to the 70s mavericks.

And now, as we settle into the internet age and approach the potential revolution of digital technology really, really influencing the film business, watching the various belief systems emerge is stunning. The drive to rush forward into the future is, remarkably, being led more by the elders, not the kids. The "kids" may be the consumers, but they are still only working with what they have in front of them. They are not creating the future... the "elders" are. Yet the "elders" are desperately trying to get ahead of the "kids" curve, embracing paradigms that I fear will be remarkably self-destructive.

And I am no Luddite. Some of you have read earlier manifestos on the nature of a digital future. I not only accept that it's coming, I see the opportunity of an expansive market as a very real, very positive thing. But the goal has to be an expansion of the market, which is inherently a benefit to civilian consumers, not a collapse.

A big reason why all of the slump shite has become so ubiquitous is that studio execs really do fear this future and cover that with a lot of talk about how great it's going to be. Living in the bubble of Hollywood, it is all too easy to hear this, as a journalist, and buy into it as reality. Journalists are, of course, supposed to be fighting to gain greater perspective than any of the people they cover, but it doesn't always work that way. The reality is that Hollywood operates on fear, not confidence and you can always find extremely smart people ready to feed any negative story.

The laugher of so much of the "movies aren't good enough" coverage is that people are spending more money on this junk than they ever have in history, both in theaters and out. It is horrible to say it, but with a marketing industry that is so powerful in consumer choice, the masses will go where they are led. Critics won't. People with a wide array of choices won't. But the illusion that there is a quantum difference between Desperate Housewives and Joan of Arcadia is a self-indulgent manipulation.

"We" have invested our lives in the difference between these shows, just as we have in differentiating the political parties in our minds, and so we have a vested interest in believing our own hype. But in the end, the goal is audience interest, not quality. Deluding ourselves into believing the cycles are under our control is a sad road.... but with others willing to invest in that delusion, we can make great fortunes in the process.

I don't want to suggest that everything we do is arbitrary and meaningless. Good work is good work. And even bad shows have some good work and lots of hard working, well intended people involved. But that is the micro world, not the macro. And the future of this industry, much as we are comforted by bringing it down to our microviews, is a macro industry issue. And not seeing that could destroy many careers and lives.

Here are the headlines that I think are critical. I'll write about each in more depth tomorrow.

Exhibition Is A Different Business Than Home Entertainment.

Established Price Points Do Not Go Up.

The Music Model

Why Do People Go To The Movies?

Perceived Value Vs Real Value

Delivery Systems Vs Content

The Next Commercial Step... Content Variation

Why Hasn't PPV Worked? Why Don't People Go To Theaters To See TV Events?

How Do People Feel About Spending On Entertainment... It's More Than Numbers.

Does Simplification/Ease Of Access Actually Help Anyone... Even The Consumer?

READER OF THE DAY: DOG EARED NAT writes: I own a Video Store. We don't really deal with selling new DVD product, except for indie and niche titles, (music, skateboarding, etc). We mostly rent, and sell used.

I was reading your 3 parter from last week, and I kept reading that DVDs cost 3X the rental price to keep.

Here's the numbers I see where I am:

Rentals: $3.50 or 2/$6.00

Buying a New DVD: Well, if you go out the first 5 days it's out, you might be able to find it for $15.99 (which is $17 after tax, (you don't have to pay tax on rentals)). which is around 5 - 6X the price of a rentals.

Of course, as soon as that first Sunday hits, all the area stores jack the prices up to $19.99 - $22.99. Which is, 7 - 9X the price of a rental. And, of course, if you like movies that gross under $100m, they rarely are discounted less than $19.99

And this from JOHN SEE WILY: "You bringing up Big Daddy in Land of Dead leads me to this: he's a good guy. In Toe-Tags, a comic Romero wrote. He essentially lays out that something inside of us determines which route we take in the undead life. Big Daddy and his command posse, since they do not eat any humans. Are essentially going to become good. If Romero gets to make another movie. It could easily feature Big Daddy and crew becoming more human. And dealing with their recovering humanity."

E-ME. I have a few very funny hate pieces on War of The Worlds in my inbox, but no great defenses. Yet, there have been some very strong ones on the blog. So until more of you can see the film, I think I'll go light on the WoTW ROTDs.

But for tomorrow's continuation of today's column... how much would you pay to watch a movie in your house on opening night? And why do you leave your house to go to the movies? And if you have stopped, what could bring you back?