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October 11, 2005
Sharon Waxman ran a preview story on an OTX study that claims that teen boys saw 24% fewer films this summer than last and goes on to explain that they were distracted by being online… presumably doing OTX surveys.
I didn't post the piece to MCN because on first glance, the survey seems inherently faulty and I didn't want to spend my weekend fighting a wave of what is now the same-old-same-old "movie theatrical is dead" spin.
The numbers haven't changed dramatically since all the slump talk was at its height. The year is off $580 million right now. Eliminate The Passion of The Christ from the overall number and that brings the drop down to $210 million or 2.9%… or pretty much the annual variation… and even less startling when you note that last year was the highest grossing year ever, as of this date, by $357 million.
What is remarkable, really, is that this year has been so successful in the face of a number of films that really didn't perform.
After the first week of May, which was off $31 million from last year (Kingdom of Heaven vs Van Helsing), the rest of the month was down just $3 million with one week that was actually up.
June had two massive down weeks. The week after Memorial Day (Potter 3, Shrek 2, Day After Tomorrow grossed $215 million vs. Madagascar. Longest Yard & SWIII's $109m with Cinderella Man in 4th slot with a $25 million start) was off $75 million. And the week going into the 4th of July (Spider-Man II opening vs Bewitched's opening) was off $60 million.
The first week of July was off $71 million (Spidey2 v WOTW). And then, again, things stabilized. The middle of the month was off just $7 million. And then the fifth week of the month was off $40 million again (The Village opening vs Stealth).
August was off every week, but by an average of about $8 million or about 4%.
September was up by about $50 million or about $12 million a week or about 11%.
So to try to find some clarity… five terrible weeks/terrible movies and The Passion Of The Christ are responsible for $617 million in down numbers from last year… which makes the rest of the year up $37 million.
Now… this is the part where I wanted to take a clear-eyed look at this survey.
However, a little research made clear that OTX is connected to MarketCast, the company that I got into a beef with when they released and promoted the rather shoddy survey on how R-rated movies could make more if they were PG-13. We went back and forth on the issues, in the column.
Yesterday, they chose not to respond to repeated phone calls.
But I am going to give them one more day. Why? Because I think this current survey is another convoluted, misleading mess. But I want to give OTX every opportunity to discuss my issues with their methodology before I just start ripping it apart.
Fact is, I'd be perfectly happy if I could make sense of what they are claiming to have uncovered. But based on what I've read in these stories on in the OTX press release, no such luck. The most obvious problem is that the survey is being analyzed in comparison to 2003, not 2004. But there are many, many problems, not necessarily with the survey itself, but with the analysis and especially with the extrapolated analysis by media looking at the survey release.
We shall see.
