October 31, 2005

More scarily delusional box office analysis to discuss, just in time for Halloween…

While I applaud Gabriel Snyder & Variety's willingness to finally look at a box office number that deals with the fluke of The Passion of The Christ and the lesser fluke of Fahrenheit 9/11, the decision to do so only in support of a deeply misguided premise is unfortunate.

The overt lie of today's Page One story in Variety ("Plexes vexed by falling teen spirit - Specialty pix find older auds' favor") is that the indie/dependent business is doing well and the larger studio business is having a problem, since they target teens and teen males in particular. So what circumstance leads Variety to allow for the variation that is defined by POTC and F9/11?

I quote: "Combined, specialty divisions at the studios and indies have grossed a bit more than $1 billion this year, which is 22% higher than the total through this point last year if "Passion" and "Fahrenheit" are subtracted."

Yes. And if you do count the $490 million domestic that those two films made, the Indie/Dependent sector is 27% lower than the total through this point last year.

Moreover, if you take that $490 million out of the overall box office equation - which oddly enough, Mr. Snyder and Variety don't bother to do - the box office is off a rather uninteresting 1.6%… or $123 million. Or, if you like, less than the difference in the grosses of Spider-Man 2 and War Of The Worlds.

Chicken Little couldn't be arriving in theaters at a better time.

Before I get into stats, just take an overview of the business. There was a massive write-down at Disney on Miramax/Dimension this year, even though the Dependent grossed $370 million to date. Vitale & Dinerstein were fired from Paramount Classics in spite of having the biggest film and biggest year of their eight years running that Dependent. Fox Searchlight has released four movies all year. Bob Berney ran to the safety of Time-Warner this year, in spite of The Passion of The Christ last year. And March of the Penguin remains the only film released by Warner Indie to gross over $8 million (though Good Night, and Good Luck will soon do that).

Studios are abandoning the independence of their Dependents in favor of Dimension/Old School New Line-like approaches because teenagers still buy the most tickets by far. And kids like loud crap! If you want to look at stats to really understand who is not going to the movies in favor of Home Entertainment, it's the adults, not the kids. They are patient enough to wait for DVDs to be released and the older you are, the lower the "getting out" priority and tolerance of inconvenience.

Or maybe Variety didn't notice that Saw II opened to more than In Her Shoes - the highest grossing "adult" movie in October - has managed in four weekends.

Snyder spouts that "specialty labels have surged 29%." But WIP's success is, to date, completely driven by March of the Penguins, whose success was predicated on the studio's ability to transform a French doc into a mainstream family film. And, as noted before, the best year in Par Classics history led to a change of leadership.

While Focus did a very good box office job on Constant Gardener, the division is down this year to date by 23% with a gross of $49 million total.

But Snyder mentions a $102 million gross… what gives?

Well, a new division. Rogue… which almost exclusively targets - you got it - teenaged boys! And Rogue, which had only made one release by this time last year, Shaun of the Dead, which grossed $13 million to this date, has released three films this year. And yes, Unleashed, Assault on Precinct 13, and Cry Wolf have, between them, grossed $55 million this year… or $10 million less than MGM grossed on The Amityville Horror as the company went out of business.

But Focus looks great on paper compared to Fox Searchlight… off 34%. And that gives the studio the benefit includes the vast majority of the income from Sideways, released in 2004 and Oscar nominated in 2005. Their highest grossing release this year, Roll Bounce, was outgrossed by four 2004 Searchlight releases… and number three grossed more than a third more than 2005's top skater.

Sony Pictures Classics has had a very strong year, but they have also generated revenue from nine more films this year than last year. And with only two English language films grossing over $1 million last year (Riding Giants and The Mother), 2005 has been loaded with seven such titles, plus big dollars from two Kung Fu flicks (Kung Fu Hustle & House of Flying Daggers), the division's top two grossers, both of which were seen as underperformers.

Fine Line/Picturehouse is also down.

And Miramax/Dimension is a very mixed bag. They released 24 films to his date this year… only 11 last year. 55% of releases to this date grossed more than $10 million last year. 33% this year. On the other hand, this year to date grossed $370 million, while last year to date, $220 million. But then again, the expense of all these dumped films was massive, regardless of the gross, forcing Disney to take a write-down of hundreds of millions of dollars because of it. So does that make this a great year for Disney's Dependent?

The point?

It's the movies, stupid!

What would you say the highest grossing film primarily made for adults has been this year? It's The Interpreter… grossing $72.5 million domestic and $156 million worldwide. Last year, adult-leaning titles Passion of the Christ, Troy, Collateral, Man of Fire and The Terminal all outgrossed that figure as of this date.

And what about the Dependents… are the improved numbers for some because adults are going to the movies? Uh, no. The top Dependent grossers released this year are March of the Penguins ($76m/families), Sin City ($74m/teen boys), The Adventures of Sharkgirl & Lava Boy ($39m, kids), The Brothers Grimm ($38m, teen boys), Hostage ($35m, teen boys), and then in sixth place, the first title that is really for adult audiences… Constant Gardener, with $33 million.

It is time for the industry to stop leaning on "The Slump" and to just eat their damned porridge. The Island and Stealth didn't open because the marketing didn't work.

51 movies have opened better than either of those films so far this year. Fifty One!!! 51! Fifty Fucking One! Get it?

Racing Stripes opened better than either film. Sahara, Hide & Seek, White Noise, Transporter II, Miss Congeniality II… and 45 of your other 2005 favorites… all opened better than either of those two massive projects. And you're going to cling to the slump? Are you nuts?!?!?!

Moreover, Beauty Shop, Fever Pitch, and The Sisterhood of The Traveling Pants are among the titles that outgrossed both films while opening weaker, and Because of Winn Dixie, Dark Water, and House of Wax are amongst the brilliant titles that beat Stealth's $31.7 million total.

If you are still screaming, "slump," you deserve a swift kick.

MGM is down $17 million to date this year compared to last… and has been out of business since April.

Among the eight surviving majors, half are up for the year, half are down.

UP

New Line is up 73% from last year's numbers to this date.

Paramount is up 65%

Fox is up almost $300 million or 34%

WB is up to date, though only by $10 million. However, they did have two $200 million grossers this summer.

DOWN

DreamWorks, including animation, has dropped about in half (47%).

Disney is off 36%, though they release three fewer films to day this year.

Sony is off 25%, taking the biggest percentage hit on Revolution films and the only up non-SPC division being Screen Gems

Universal is down $75 million or 12%, though none of their releases this year cost as much as their two top pre-November titles from last year, The Bourne Supremacy and Van Helsing.

Of course, as with virtually every single one of these stories, the only on-the-record comment from a studio is buried at the end of the story. In this case, DreamWorks' Jim Tharp, who says, sanely, ""It seems to me that if you have a movie that is compelling and you can make it look compelling, that age group shows up in the same numbers they always have."

Well, yes.

Don't tell Variety. Like so many, they seem to think that industry paranoia is news. But in fact, it as predictable as Saw III.

E-ME.