January 3, 2006

REFLECTIONS ON A NEW YEAR

January 3, 2005 - "I expect 2005 to be a pretty easygoing year. But it may well be the eye of the storm. People are taking the reverses of a bunch of very important companies in great stride… kind of like the earthquake in South Asia. But 2006… now that is scary prospect… tsunami?"

Well… right and wrong. Much of 2005 was spent sorting out the already determined (MGM) and the inevitable (DreamWorks).

The Weinsteins couldn't accept a smaller ($350 million a year) version of the $700 million a year cage they were in at Disney… so they got into a $200 million a year cage of their own called The Weinstein Company. Meanwhile, Iger's Disney hasn't shown any real change of product from the Eisner Disney, but an 18-month turnaround at ABC combined with an endless puddle of iPod drool in the media has given him a very nice honeymoon.

Sony's brutal year in movies threatens, but with Sir Howard at the helm of helms, outside of Geoff Ammer, no bite… yet.

Paramount took in DreamWorks at a price Universal, which would not have sold off the library or sold out their current studio staff, couldn't come close to matching. The first quarter of 2006 will be a tsunami at the studio, where anyone who is not bolted down with a long contract from the current team could be out of a job just in time for Valentine's Day.

Ironically, the first true DreamAmount movie to be born will likely hit next December, Dreamgirls, a deal that was greenlit months before Viacom made an offer and which could just as easily been co-owned by Warner Bros, which shares one of Dreamgirls' primary awards season competitors with DreamWorks, Clint Eastwood's Flags of Our Fathers. That leaves three other live action films in the new DreamWorks library. The film that is closest to becoming the first actual greenlight in DreamAmount history is a Summer 2007 release, Transformers, which continues to flail about trying to come up with a budget of less than $200 million before Michael Bay (still attached) starts pushing that cash envelope.

Warner Bros, 20th Century Fox, Universal and Paramount all had up years at the box office. WB had multiple $200 million domestic titles in the same year for the first time ever… and not only two, but three. Yet at the same time, because of corporate pressure via Carl Icahn, people were being fired and cutbacks started chopping. The studio will chase success with two mega-budget summer films, Poseidon and Superman Returns, and the top-heavy Shyamalan film, Lady in the Water, and failures by any two of the films could wreck havoc on the studio.

Universal somehow managed to have not only an up year, but a $1 billion year, even though King Kong and The 40-year-Old Virgin are the only titles in their year perceived as successes… and people are still monkeying around with their feelings about Kong. The pressure brought to bear on a studio being more and more closely watched and restricted by parent multinational GE is intense. Ironically, even though the winner/loser attitude in the press about the failed DreamWorks deal has some depressed, the bottom line is that it was a frugal, but reasonable choice and DW employees couldn't be more thankful, given that most of those who will not lose their jobs at Paramount would have been knocked off at the staffed-up Universal.

People have been waiting for some other kind of shoe to drop at Universal since it became NBC/Universal, yet no one quite knows what that show might look like. This is the State of the Art in Hollywood paranoia these days. Who will take Amy Pascal's job if things go worse at Sony or Stacey Snider's at Universal if Miami Vice crashes and burns? Who is left? Who would take the heat at WB if Superman stiffs… or if it becomes a monster hit and they sold half off? (shrug) Will Disney get smacked for having only two summer movies? Don't know. Has Lionsgate become too weighty to buy and is that what ownership really wants? Magic Eight Ball says, "Maybe."

20th Century Fox is a company on the move. The studio released 18 movies in 2005, half of which failed to generate as much as $25 million in rentals domestically. Star Wars III, Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Fantastic Four and Robots were the four leading titles, all overperforming, though one could argue the point on Star Wars. And in 2006? There are 19 films on the schedule, including a heart-pounding 9 summer movies.

But there's more!

After a quiet year, Fox Searchlight also has 16 films on the schedule for release.

But that's not all!

Peter Rice will head a new division of the company that will focus on family films, also planning on 6-8 films a year. It's likely that the first release via that division won't be released until 2007, but with 36 films on the way this year, does the schedule continue to swell or does is start to subside?

THE FEARLESS FORECASTS

Disney - The Pixar deal will close before Cars is released, under the increasing threat of being the lowest grossing Pixar film since Toy Story 2 in 1999. Sometime in the summer, the first off-shore website dealing in either free or lower cost downloads for your iPod or computer, going completely around the iTunes sales system. When Pirates of the Caribbean II becomes the highest grosser of the summer, Iger says, "I only wish I could be selling DVDs in the lobby"… 200 yards arrive, a man with a small suitcase lives the dream.

Lionsgate - Hostel II is greenlit, produced, directed and shilled by QT, all before Saw III opens. Rumors surface about Lionsgate buying Sony Pictures, Paramount buying Lionsgate, and Tom Ortenberg becoming the next commissioner of Major League Baseball.

Paramount - The studio fires 200 people in the next six weeks. Feelings are hurt. Parental guest rooms are turned back into bedrooms. The studio struggles through 2006, though Mission: Impossible III gets a big benefit from being the first film released in a badly overcrowded May. And in the fall, Paramount becomes THE studio of Oscar season 2006/7 with Flags of Our Fathers and Dreamgirls both being presumed Best Picture nominees going into the fall season. Both Eastwood and Condon publicly thank Terry Press for her support.

Sony - Like it or not, new marketing chief Valerie van Galder has Amy Pascal's future in her hands, as it is too late for the future of the studio chief to hinge on Bond or Spider-Man 3. With a dozen films scheduled to arrive before the end of summer, the ability of the studio to open those films will either set the course for the future or end Pascal's run.

If the pressure continues to build on the studio, don't be surprised if Sony looks to unload the studio completely. With the security of a Blu-Ray library as part of the equation, the Spider-Man and Bond franchises as well as a strong Home Entertainment division and a rich library as bait, Sept/Oct would be the prime time for a sale if one if going to happen. If for some reason, the IPO idea that was floated last year were to be seen as a better opportunity, the best time to launch that would be two weeks after Spider-Man 3 opens next year.

20th Century Fox - The ever-expanding studio will come into focus in ways that are barely predictable now. With two barrels coming out of Peter Rice's office, there will have to be a more clear split between divisions than in the past. There are just too many projects and too much going on for Rothman and Gianopulis to be terribly hands on in the Rice arena. (Also... in US Magazine, a photo of Rice is mistakenly published in place of one of House's Jesse Spencer. Playgirl Magazine goes on to Scott Stuber when Rice passes on a layout. But they don't hit paydirt until Brad Grey agrees to appear shirtless in a spread photgraphed by Brett Ratner who, coincidentally, is soon after announced as the new director of Transformers.)

With two weeks open between Poseidon and MI:3 and X3, the X-Men will benefit from a bit of free space. The controversy over the film will come when people realize that Fox is, in some ways, closing out the franchise. The response to the film will either take the "that was brilliant and these franchises always peter out after two or three films" or the "how could they throw away the money they would have made on X4?" position. But either way, both Brett Ratner and the budget are likely to be lost in the sauce… unless the film comes up short of $150 million domestic. Super Ex-Girlfriend becomes the surprise comedy hit of the summer as Luke Wilson emerges as a box office friendly leading man.

Universal - Things continue to bubble with no answers for a long time. American Dreamz is the controversial critics film of the spring and Flight 93 becomes the first "early year Oscar contender" of 2006. The Break Up and You, Me & Dupree become the comedy flop double feature of the summer, but Miami Vice shocks everyone and becomes a Michael Mann's highest grossing hit.

Warner Bros - Firewall becomes a surprise February hit for the studio, making people anxious (again) for Harrison Ford to make Indiana Jones IV while he still has teeth. Poseidon leads the way to a 70s revival that leads to the aforementioned Miami Vice success. Superman Returns and does an underwhelming $185 million domestic… a week later, Warner Indie is shuttered. With $240 million, Happy Feet becomes the studio's high grosser of the year and another marketing revamp is executed.

The Weinstein Company - The company limps along quietly until a cash infusion from two Tarantino/Rodriguez films infuse the film with a bit of profit. Talks about the Weinsteins buying Lions Gate heat up after Hostel makes more than $75 million and the Weinsteins decide that horror porn, and not Oscars, is where the next few years at the movies are at.

A look at the year at the box office and "The Slump" tomorrow…

December 28, 2004 - Movies You Should Have Seen, But Didn't
December 29, 2004 - The Ten Worst
December 30, 2004 - The Ten Best