 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| |||||
February 6, 2006The future's so blah, I gotta wear shades.
Let's do something daring today and actually think about what we might feel in the near future instead of waiting for the latest lame trend story to tell us what to think. Is anyone terribly excited about 2006 in the movie business?
Rumors and bad intentions are flying all over the place. Of course, instead of really considering why these rumors are occurring, some people are focusing on the existence of these rumors. Revolution signaled with crystal clarity, given what was already known about the one-sidedness of the deal with Sony, that it was done when Joe Roth did an "I'm an artist, not a businessman," interview with Patrick Goldstein. DreamWorks shut-down rumors flew for a long while because the business model has been held together with gum and shoe polish for three years already. MGM spent four years going in and out of business before Hi-Def DVD was strong enough bait to get someone to buy the company from Kirk Kerkorian for the fourth time. Peter Rice's rising power at Fox played out as an expanded business model instead of a power struggle with toppers Rothman and Gianopulos.
Power struggles continue all over the place. But there are few answers. You never quite know what the triggers will be.
At least the New York Times finally found the wherewithal today to question the legitimacy of $7 billion-plus for Disney's purchase of Pixar. At the same time, as the power structure of Paramount gets a lot more complicated than "Me, Brad… you, employee," the paper can't seem to get past Grey's always-brilliant spin.
Brad Grey actually started his tenure by negotiating his own deal in the media and then manipulated Tom Cruise in the newspaper. Ultimately, one of his hires, John Lesher, used the same tactic, taking his job in the media before a deal was ever signed with Paramount. In turn, recent weeks have seen Lesher publicly positioning his Dependent division as the distributor on the Brad Pitt starrer Babel, directed by a former client, even though the film is still technically under the big Paramount banner.
In fact, the flailing at Paramount has been a cash cow for executives all over Hollywood. At Fox, both Nancy Utley and then Peter Rice were able to utilize the Paramount rumor track (though Utley was far further along as a possibility than Rice ever was) to secure major contractual advantage. Scott Stuber and Mary Parent got a great production deal and freedom at Universal thanks to Paramount rumoring. Valerie Van Galder's ascendance into a relaunched Tri-Star was pushed by a Paramount bid for her services, though her move to marketing chief at Sony was a different step altogether. (Actually, now-former Sony marketing chief, Geoff Ammer, also used a Paramount rumor to push for his renewal, which was signed this summer, just in time for him to be the distracting whacking of Sony's fall.) Tom Ortenberg's position at Lionsgate was reasserted thanks to a Paramount Classics bid. Oren Aviv got creative title at Disney on the strength of not going to Paramount. And David Geffen used a not-very-real Paramount interest in DreamWorks to raise the bar for a Universal bid, which eventually led back to an overinflated real bid by Paramount that, like the Sony/MGM deal which is already in the process of dissolving (aside from the library), will likely see DreamWorks talent return to a different fold.
It's still happening at Paramount, as Stacey Snider now appears to be leveraging Paramount's shaky position in the industry to get a solid renewal deal from General Electric. And every marketing exec approached by Paramount Classics seems to be getting a raise and a title upgrade when they choose not to join the fledgling relaunching division. (Only Megan Colligan, a strong hire from Fox Searchlight, has actually taken the job as publicity topper. But even then, it was announced before Sundance with an apparent eye to pushing Ms. Utley to say goodbye months early, as negotiated in the media.)
And, ironically, it may well be Terry Press' unwillingness to play these rumor games that has cost her, for now, the chance to take over the top marketing job at the DW-ized Paramount. She takes no shit… she gives lots of shit… but she calls her shots and shoots. That kind of directness is not much appreciated out there these days.
So are things going to get better? Not in a hurry. The story for a while now, essentially a rumor reported as fact to within an inch of its life, is multiple platform delivery. But week after week, you see more and more stories beginning to catch up with the reality that the other delivery systems are even more vulnerable than the alleged dying theatrical distribution model. Just a year ago, Electronic Arts was looking to buy a studio. Now they are fighting unmet sales goals each quarter. iTunes sales of TV shows are really exciting… and, as a business, are coming into focus as more marginal than plain M&Ms at the concession stand. Instead of building the WB with expensive sports programming and an expanded schedule, Time-Warner ceded their network to Viacom and football to the NFL Network. ABC is so scared that Desperate Housewives will slip an inch, they spent the equivalent of $2.5 million on ads for the show during the Super Bowl. (This, is after they spent a ton promoting a sitcom that they didn't really believe in, in tandem with a show that already failed… and then cancelled both after just one week. Next to the word "skittish" in the dictionary…) DVD sales of movies are down, though TV sales are up… but not nearly as much as in years past. Etc, etc, etc…
The cyclical business of the film business will cycle around again. But 2006 is going to be a complex, unsettled time all over the place. Rumors will fly. So will out and out lies. And in the end, movies will make it, movies will fail, and US Magazine will keep covering girls who have sex with rock stars and not movie executives. And thank God for that. It's time to make the doughnuts.
January 3, 2006 - Reflections On A New Year
January 6, 2006 - Sundance Preview
January 5, 2006 - The Business Of 2005, Pt 1
January 9, 2006 - The Business Of 2005, Pt 2
January 11 - Munich In Sequence | Act 1 | Act 2 | Act 3
January 12 - V For Vendetta
