Week Of April 10, 2006 - List Week - Mon / Wed / Fri

April 10, 2006

The Second Annual THB Survey
WHO ARE THE BIGGEST STARS IN THE WORLD?

It's amazing how little has changed since I did this list last year. Women are still terribly underrepresented at the top of the food chain and only one new female contender has broken in to the Top Twenty. Newcomers are also quite limited amongst men. And with an apparent glass ceiling on the ascendancy of superstars in this town, Hollywood should continue to be a bit nervous about the great expectations that stars bring.

Wednesday, every actor who I think is worth $5 million or more to a movie and why. Today, let's start with a few names that have to be separated from consideration for the moment…

There are three major movie stars who are currently in some degree of retirement.

Julia Roberts - Being mom and starring on Broadway mean a multi-year hiatus.

Mel Gibson - The director has retired the superstar for a four years now.

Arnold Schwarzenegger - The Governator.

Also falling out for now, up-n-comer Jennifer Garner is too busy being a mom and on TV for movies, Wesley Snipes has turned himself into a non-player in recent years, and Bill Murray seems to only be interested in making art films.

Cuba Gooding, Jr and Britney Murphy on the other hand, have just fallen out.

ON THE COMEBACK TRAIL

Kevin Costner - Hooks up with Ashton Kutcher in The Guardian in September.

Jack Nicholson - He had a solid 2003 with two $15 million+ openers, but hasn't been seen since… until he hooks up with Scorsese, DiCaprio, and Damon later this year in The
Departed.

Billy Bob Thornton - Bad News Bears and The Ice Harvest kicked him off his Bad Santa stride, but Mr Woodcock and School For Scoundrels have him looking to muscle up.

STILL SUSPECT

Halle Berry - Gothika & Catwomen were both a bit disappointing at the box office, yet
both opened. Still looking for a big hit of her own.

Kirsten Dunst - There was some real heat there back when Bring It On opened. But Spider-Man's girlfriend may have jumped the shark, as nothing she's been the lead in since has cracked $17 million.

Kate Hudson - She broke out in How To Lose A Guy In 10 Days three years ago. She took some mommy time off, but we're still waiting for a return to anything close to a $100 million movie.

Scarlett Johansson - This D-Cup Diva can take it all off on Vanity Fair all she likes, but her breakout movie, The Horse Whisperer, is still her biggest domestic grosser. Moreover, The Island is her only non-animated post-Redford film to open to more than $10 million.

Matthew MacConaughey - First quarter romances have been the core of his box office success. Is it Matthew or is it women over 30 starving for something to see? Sahara suggests that there might be more there… but there are too many films that just disappeared.

Ewan McGregor - This is one of the hardest reads in the business. Take Star Wars out of it and he is not all that impressive. But then again, there are some strong smaller titles, like Big Fish, Black Hawk Down, and Moulin Rouge!

THE FAMILY MEN (& WOMEN)

Tim Allen - He fell into obscurity for five years when he was trying to make movies for adults. But as a family film guy, he is money. He would probably be more money is he made a movie every year instead of disappearing for two years between each film.

Amanda Bynes - She's a pretty sure $10 million opener in her post-Nick milieu so far.

Ice Cube - Say what you want about the failure of XXX2, Cube hasn't missed opening to $10 million in six years, except for the car wreck that was Ghosts Of Mars, which they sold on… well, they didn't sell it. He also still hasn't cracked $100 million. But Are We There Yet suggests that the opportunity is there.

Vin Diesel - Hit, hit, flop, flop, flop, hit, hit, flop. You just don't know what you are going to get with Diesel. What we do seem to know is that when the audience knows what to expect from him, he opens movies.

Hilary Duff - Kind of the low rent Amanda Bynes, she started stronger than Bynes and has been falling back ever since. Barely hits the $5 million sure opening level.

THE BODIES

Jessica Alba - Laugh at her protestations that her body is not her draw, but she may become a real box office baby before long. Honey opened quietly to $13 million and Into The Blue, which backed into its opening, did only $7 million, even though its promotional photos are still being looked over, including on the cover of Playboy last month. She was big bait on Sin City and Fantastic Four. But she still has to prove that she is more than a body.

Kate Beckinsale - Serendipity did better than most people remember. Before then, she was a pretty actress in toney films. Since then, her career has been limited to being a piece of ass-kicking ass, whether in a bustier or a pair of skintight latex pants. Sony probably should have picked her for Bond, but she may be better off without that on her resume. Can she fulfill the promise that Angelina Jolie seems ready to move away from, as the great girl action star? We'll see. Right now, she's a one-movie star.

The Rock - He's never had a movie open to less than $15 million in his entire career, all six movies of it. He hasn't cracked $50 million as a lead since The Scorpion King. And he has a real problem drawing women. But when he finds the right film, there is no doubt that he can get a crowd to get it launched.

ARE THEY COMING?

Jessica Biel - There really is no proof one way or the other yet. Her list of openings since Texas Chainsaw Massacre is impressive, but the only film in which she was a key component of the sell was Stealth and she was upstaged by Jamie Foxx, the plane, and the marketing budget. Blade: Trinity was not her movie nor did you get the feeling that she increased its draw very much. (Ryan Reynolds, who I think is very, very talented, isn't on the box office list at all… still waiting for "it" to happen.) Yet, she may be the sexiest woman alive… or whatever title she got from whatever laddie mag this last year.

Jon Heder - He grabs a lot of attention in every trailer he's in. But is he drawing dollars at the box office? It may be a couple more years before we really know.

Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Oscar winner and a great actor. But what is he worth in box office dollars? His gold statue combined with his Mission:Impossible 3 villain role - which is being promoted here, but not too much overseas where he is not as known a quantity - should make him an asking price Robert Duvall/Michael Caine for the next couple of years. But will he be box office? One gets the impression that a couple of $5 million paydays followed by the great actor's freedom to do as he wish might be all he'd really want out of this moment.

Terrence Howard - T-Ho, on the other hand, is ready for his cash close-up. The prettiest and most powerfully emotional black actor of his generation (and near the top of the list in both among actors of any race), Howard and Jamie Foxx are mutually fortunate to have very distinctive styles, particularly from one another. Between the Oscar nod and three 2005 box office successes, Howard's asking price should triple or quadruple and what he actually gets for his next few films is likely to be more than twice anything he's every made before in his career. And it seems to me that whoever is getting him now is getting a bargain. He learned how to be a salesman this year and movies need that of their stars.

Colin Farrell - S.W.A.T. must seem a long way away for this actor who everyone wants to be the next big thing. Five art films and an Oliver Stone car wreck has been slowing his career to a crawl since. But he's getting a big payday for Miami Vice and when he gets out of rehab, he may enjoy the biggest success of his career. It will be close to being the start of his second act… and the guy is just 29.

Keira Knightley - The biggest name of this group looks great on a magazine cover and is charming, but at the box office, she is more than a little disappointing so far. $2.7m, $5154, $4.7m, $2.9m… oy. Of course, Pirates is going to explode this summer. But if Love Actually and King Arthur benefited from her Piratian presence, the glow o' green ended in less than a year.

Bernie Mac - Since a supporting role in Life in 1999, Mac has only been in one film that opened to less than $10 million. That film was, unfortunately for him, is only stand-alone lead, Mr. 3000. Mac may be part of a rare breed right now… supporting actors who really do expand the base for the movies in which he supports.

The big list soon follows…

E Me: You don't have a vote, but if you did, who would you put on top and where would you count your favorite actors?

Week Of April 3, 2006 - Life In the Bubble - Mon / Wed / Frixx