Week Of April 10, 2006 - List Week - Mon / Wed / Frii

April 12, 2006

The Second Annual THB Survey
WHO ARE THE BIGGEST STARS IN THE WORLD?

THE TOP 20

20. John Travolta - He may seem to be in need of a comeback after a run of movies where he got paid more than $15 million and the movies opened to less than that. But very quietly, he had a $22 million and $23 million openings in his last two wide releases. Personally, I think that Hairspray may be one of the biggest movie mistakes ever. He is primed to be the wise, once incredibly sexy, older man for the next two decades and he's rushing into a dress.

19. Jodie Foster - Anna & The King was a disaster, but her last three wide releases all opened over $24 million. She can't take all the credit for Inside Man, but Flightplan and Panic Room were all her. Her career is truly one of a kind.

18. Nicole Kidman - When she strays, she invariably flops. But she is a high-teens, low-twenties opener, even when in crap like Bewitched and clear misses like The Stepford Wives.

17. Ben Stiller - The truly heady space was around Along Came Polly and Starsky & Hutch at $27m and $28m. A few more public appearances like the Oscar schtick could signal a premature end to a very successful career. Oddly, Stiller is the Mary Tyler Moore of his comic troop… the reactor, not really the comic. Can anyone do a Ben Stiller imitation? But there is no denying the success.

16. Reese Witherspoon - The heated moment has passed, in spite of the well earned Oscar, and the future lies in front of a likely star for the next few decades. Witherspoon is more attuned to character acting in her 30s than most stars who lean on their looks. The world is her oyster, but she has to make good choices and to demand better directors and then let them do their jobs.

15. Rachel McAdams - She's only been in one $100 million movie. But no movies she's fronted has opened to less than $12.5 million and she still hasn't made a movie with a budget over $35 million. It's not The Wedding Crashers that screams superstar. It's the $60 million domestic hits that weren't supposed to be - Red Eye and The Family Stone - and her $80 million breakout, The Notebook. She has, by far, the lowest price in the Top 20. This makes her a huge value play and she has every ounce of potential to be the biggest female star since the height of Julia Roberts. That said, she doesn't seem to care much about being a star. She is young, generous of spirit, and just may not want it enough not to become the next Debra Winger.

14. Tom Hanks - He had a very tough 2004. Will the adult Tom Hanks regain his stature? It's time for his next incarnation. We'll see.

13. Russell Crowe - He's only made two movies since A Beautiful Mind. He is a box office enigma. And he could rise as easily as he could fall.

12. Will Ferrell - He may be a consistent $20 million opener… or he may not. Sony has high hopes for Talladega, but the Kicking & Screaming/Bewitched combo might make this pure Ferrell play a much, much harder sell. There is still hope and promise. But keep an eye out for the yellow flag.

11. Denzel Washington - Denzel opens movies. Period. Too much period, since his films don't break $100 million domestic often either. And he doesn't play overseas as well as you might expect. He is a box office hero, but he has his limitations.

And now…

THE TOP TEN

10. Eddie Murphy - Eddie has kept a low, low profile since doing the dreadful The Haunted Mansion, where he earned his money getting this turd to $182 million worldwide, and Daddy Day Care, which wasn't as bad, but did $164 million worldwide. Shrek 2 became the second highest grossing film domestically, all time. And "Donkey" was a big part of that draw. But he'll be on screen in person for the first time in three years when he arrives in Dreamgirls this December. He's likely to get an Oscar nomination for his effort, though he certainly deserved his first for Bowfinger. The film is not likely to be a massive box office machine. But the prestige of an Oscar run will either take Murphy back to the very top or send him towards better, more important work for years to come. A true comic genius, if Murphy started making good choices again, he could push into Sandler territory. We'll see.

9. Keanu Reeves - He's a heavyweight action player. When Constantine, a not-as-popular-as-the-big-titles comic book movie opened to $29 million, he asserted his muscle. Even his weak deliveries open to about $9 million. Don't back him big on love stories… that's all I'm tryin' to say.

8. Vince Vaughn - He's been money since 2003's Old School. And another his this summer with The Break Up would likely push him into the Top Ten. He's still a tandem act, but $209 million for The Wedding Crashers is a remarkable number.

7. Steve Martin - Four movies in the last three years. The four biggest hits of his career. Ironically, the only exception was his one love project, Shopgirl.

6. Johnny Depp - His muscle is great, but he doesn't really want to flex, does he? Jack & Willie been berry, berry good to him. He's about to hit another long home run in Pirates II. Movies like Finding Neverland and Secret Window are impressive in context, but Depp doesn't real interested in chasing the big show.

The $20 Million Men
In my estimation, these five are the only actors in Hollywood currently worth $20 million or more up front, plus back end, in almost any project they want to do right now. There are a few others who are worth it in the right role, such as Keanu saving the world, Depp as Captain Jack, Damon in Bourne III, etc.

5. Jim Carrey - It's hard to keep up with Bruce Almighty. $485 million worldwide for a modestly budgeted comedy meant literally hundreds of millions in profits for the film. His three films since have almost matched that one mega-hit. Still, give Carrey a clear, clean comic conceit and there is no one who can take it farther. But he may be more interested in trying to get some acting cred these days. (He should have gotten it for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.)

4. Adam Sandler - Right now, he is the King of Comedy. His films do shite overseas and that is his one weakness. But since The Waterboy in 1998, he has only missed a $37 million-plus opening on a wide release comedy once, with Little Nicky. That's six in a row. And no, I don't count Spanglish or Punch Drunk Love, though I imagine a lot of the $42 million for Spanglish came from angry (after seeing the film) Sandler fans. He keeps his budgets in line and he makes the donuts. $120 domestic is the low…. $163 million the high. But he is as consistent as the sun and moon and look for Click this summer to continue the trend.

3. Brad Pitt - His career shows direct progression, four $125 million-plus domestic wide release films in a row… but more importantly, all four over $360 million worldwide. Like Tom Cruise, he is an international powerhouse. One could discount the Oceans movies, but the two bigger movies, Troy and Mr. & Mrs. Smith weighted heavily on the Pitt franchise.

2. Tom Cruise - There is an argument to be made that the War of the Worlds/Mission: Impossible III back-to-back summer blockbusters should put Cruise back on top of the list. War of the Worlds was Cruise's biggest hit ever… but it was in combination with Spielberg. And it wasn't much bigger than M:I2, released five summers earlier. Bottom line is, as action stars, Cruise and Smith are close, with a slight edge to Cruise. But Cruise hasn't had a Hitch in his giddy-up in a decade.

1. Will Smith - Big Willie has been out of commission since this list went up last year and his next film due, Pursuit of Happyness, looks more like hopeful Oscar bait than a wriggling box office worm. His next cha-ching machine is not lined up yet, but expect there to be one in place for next summer. Right now, he is the only money star who can play to big dollars in either action or comedy. And we'll see whether he can bring it in a drama this Christmas. If you want to build a cash machine, the first best ingredient is Will Smith.

 

READER OF THE DAY: The Wit writes: "I think everyone can at least agree with the top five biggest stars:

1. Tom Cruise - The undisputed champion at the box office. His name on the marquee is worth $100,000,000 alone. With Mission mpossible next don't expect this one to change much next year.

2. Tom Hanks - Outside of the Ladykillers and the Terminal he is as close to guaranteed money as a studio can come by. What are the chances of the Da Vinci Code failing?

3. Will Smith - This one is a toss up between number 4 on my list. He has gone with less small "actor friendly" roles and that is why he is positioned securelyat number 3. Is there any one else out there more willing to please his fans and play it safe than him?

4. Jim Carrey - Can anyone else polish a turd like Jim Carrey? Look no further than Fun with Dick and Jane and Bruce Almighty for proof. With Joel Schumacher at the helm of his next film (The Number 23) expect him to fall a spot or two next year. Jim must have lost a bet during the filming of Batman Forever.

5. Adam Sandler - Okay, maybe someone else can polish a turd like Jim Carrey. When he's not experimenting with things like Punch Drunk Love and Spanglish he is pretty tough to beat.

Outside of the top five it gets a bit tougher to call. I would advance names like Matt Damon, Nicholas Cage, Steve Martin, Rachel McAdams (on the verge), Russell Crowe and Brad Pitt. Where does Morgan Freeman fit in? He never seems to be the leading man, but his films sure do make money and people love him. Apologies must go to Reese Witherspoon. I just don't feel like she can open a film on her own outside of the Legally Blonde films. Sweet Home Alabama was riding the coat tails of the first Legally Blonde. Only time will tell..."

E Me: What do you think?

Week Of April 3, 2006 - Life In the Bubble - Mon / Wed / Frixx