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Week Of May 15, 2006 - Premature Week - Oscar Mon / Wed / Fri
May 17, 2006
Premature Week
My premature fingers are aching to prematurely write about the preternatural confluence of viciousness that came screaming out of the Salle Debussy in response to The Da Vinci Code. But let's wait at least another 24 hours, so I have a chance to look at the movie myself before I opine on the shockingly harsh opining any further. (I couldn't keep myself from blogging a bit on Tuesday.)
So let's take a premature look today at the holiday movie season!!!
It's lookin' kinda thin about now. Of course, I am talking about the commerciality of it, not the awards movies and the quality they offer. It's not a disaster and there are some films that could step up, but there seems to be a distinct lack of big muscle. In the last five years, the top five films (since some years, it is one or two massive films and other years are more evenly split) have averaged between $191 million and $248 million.
2005 - $211 million
2004 - $200 million
2003 - $191 million
2002 - $220 million
2001 - $248 millionIn an odd twist, over the last five years, the number of $100 million plus movies in Nov/Dec has averaged exactly 7, with 7 in three years, 6 in one, and 8 in one more. So what are the seven this year?
Well, there are only two sure bets in the holiday season this year, with George Miller's penguin animation, Happy Feet, and Casino Royale. It is possible that this will be the biggest Bond film ever, but that is not a huge win, the series never having had a chapter do as much as $200 million domestic. Die Another Day is the high with $161 million. And $261 million is the high for a computer-animated film in the fall with The Incredibles.
That's it! After that, there are a bunch of titles that look interesting and have potential as big winners, but nothing screaming, "Get in my $100 million belly!"
The next shelf includes:
Flushed Away (Nov 3) - DreamWorks Animation and Aardman Animation won an Oscar together this year, but Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit only grossed $56 million here in the domestic market. This film is the first Aardman CG movie, though it still has the claymation look.
Santa Clause 3 (Nov 3) - The previous films in the series were good for $145 million and $139 million domestic. So the chances are this one might hold. On the other hand, The Shaggy Dog was a barker.
Stranger Than Fiction - (Nov 10) - Sony takes a run at the Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind universe, but without Charlie Kaufman or Jim Carrey. And even if they had them, that film only did $34 million domestic. Still, this one looks a bit lighter and more accessible than its predecessor. And if Will Ferrelll can rebound with Talladega Nights this summer, who knows?
A Good Year (Nov 10) - Is Russell Crowe as a swaggering romantic lead in the Italian countryside the bait for a home run this holiday season? "How Russell Got His Brain Back?" We'll see. And there is little doubt that Ridley Scott will make Italy as beautiful as it can be.
Deja Vu (Nov 24) - Tony Scott teams up with Denzel Washington for the third time. Both films (Crimson tide and Man On Fire) were hits, but neither cracked $100 million. in fact, Tony Scott's only $100 million hit in the last decade was Enemy of the State… released Nov 20, 1998.
All Lit Up (Nov 24) - Matthew Broderick and Danny DeVito team up for a comedy. You can't just throw it out. But you can't really see nine figures.
December gets even thinner on the commercial side of the sheet.
Apocalypto (Dec 8) - Mel Gibson's new foreign-language epic arrives and this one doesn't have Christian organizations working for it. But still, it could be another fine piece of silent-film-style commercial filmmaking by Mel.
The Holiday (Dec 8) - Nancy Meyers has something to give Cameron Diaz and Kate Winslet. Her last December outing did $125 million domestic. But she had Nicholson. A few years back she had Gibson. Will she have the big money magic in two well-loved actresses who have mixed box office success on their own?
The Pursuit of Happyness (Dec 15) - Will Smith found himself a terrific Italian director and a script that should make him Oscar bait. But is it going to be commercial? Big Willie's last run at drama led to Bagger Vance and Ali, his only films to fail to get to $100 million domestic in the last decade of his career. Is this his Vanilla Sky Moment or is it something even better?
Eragon (Dec 15) - This is supposed to be a big sword and sorcery entry. But… I don't know… maybe?
Charlotte's Web (Dec 22) - Dakota Fanning is Charlotte… stars provide animal voices. Can't miss? This would probably be my first choice for a likely candidate to crack the $100 million mark, though you wonder if it might skew a little too young.
Night At The Museum (Dec 22) - A wacky Ben Stiller comedy (no big name male sidekick) that actually aims at kids… kind of Jumanji in the museum. I'd probably suggest moving the film a week earlier if they really think there is real money in it. And they better… it's expensive.
The Good Shepherd (Dec 22) - Robert DeNiro's CIA drama. You got DeNiro, you got Damon, You got Jolie, you got Pesci for the first time in a long time. It could be in the awards race, but first, they'd like to see it be a cash cow. ("They" are Universal.)
Is there anything in there looks like a $250 million movie? A $200 million movie? $150 million?
The Departed was once scheduled for October, but it seems to be open to a move now and if it landed in December, not only would it put it in much better position for awards aspirations, but it might be a much more commercial movie. Warners has to deal with Happy Feet and The Good German at Thanksgiving, but Dec 15… if the movie is great, it could really rev its way through those three weekends of holiday moviegoers looking for the great studio movie with an action kick. On the other hand, October is just about right for The Fountain.
So, was that premature enough for you?
E Me:
Week Of April 3, 2006 - Life In the Bubble - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 10, 2006 - List Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 17, 2006 - Review Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 24, 2006 - Overlooked Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 1, 2006 - Mystery Week - Tue / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 8, 2006 - How We Watch Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
