Week Of July 5, 2006 - Wed / Fri

July 5, 2006

A Hot Blog reader asked the other day, "Why haven't there been any $250 million films this year?"

Well, the easy answer is that the three massive openers this year - X-Men: The Last Stand's $102.8 million, The Da Vinci Code's $77.1, and Ice Age: The Meltdown's $68 million - led to a some of the worst overall results in history in consideration of those domestic opening levels.

Admittedly, it's a small sample. 28 films have opened over $65 million in history. For 20 of those films, that opening represented less than 35% of their overall domestic gross. None of this year's trio of big openers is in that group. They all - and I think it's more than fair to say that they are all close to played out domestically - failed to hit the triple.

Of course, all three are hits... just not monsters.

X-Men: The Last Stand is the worst performer in this regard in movie history. It is the only film with an opening of more than $65 million for which that opening represents more than 40% of the final domestic gross. The number currently is 44.7%

Number 2 of the "worst" list? X2: X-Men United. So a part of this may be that this franchise has a very specific ceiling.

But X-Men: The Last Stand may be historic. It is the second $100 million opener (of five) to fail to get to $300 million, the other being last year's Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire. But Goblet at least got to $290 million. X3 won't hit $240 million.

The next three films are two horror shows (Planet of the Apes and The Day After Tomorrow) on either side of the well reviewed Harry Potter & The Prisoner of Azkaban, the only Potter to arrive in summer so far. Then, Da Vinci, last year's Potter, and finally, Ice Age: The Meltdown.

(In case you are wondering, Superman Returns isn't in this grouping, with an estimated $52.5 million 3-day.)

Perspective on all of this is very, very challenging because there is a natural myopia. Only two films before 2001 had ever opened to more than $65 million (The Lost World: Jurassic Park & Star Wars: Episode One - The Phantom Menace).

There are twenty-one films that have passed $300 million domestic in history… nine of which are in this group that opened over $65 million.

The only film to hit $300 million since 2000 - that didn't open over $65 million - is Pirates of The Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl.

Only six films in the 12 years between 2001 and what I feel was the start of the front-loading era, 1989's Batman, achieved the $300 million mark - Jurassic Park, The Lion King, Forrest Gump, Independence Day, Titanic, and the aforementioned Phantom Menace. All but Gump & Titanic were either record setting openings or the #2 record holder when each opened.

But we have hit a different era altogether in the last five years. With the exception of Star Wars: Ep 1 and Jurassic 2, we have had the first $60 million openings in history… and we have repeated it 31 times in five years (22 of them in summer). We had the first $100 million opening in 2002 and have had at least one every year since, except in 2003.

But as I have written before, it is counterintuitive to think that we can continue to shorten the window between theatrical release and Home Entertainment and not damage the theatrical window.

But besides simply shortening the windows, other things have unintentionally conspired to change Movie World. Marketing has become, for the most part, extraordinarily good at finding and hitting a moving consumer target. Pirates was one of the first great examples of a late-in-the-game turnaround that worked. $46.6 million was hardly world-beating in 2003, but still, the movie passed $250 million in its sixth week Just three years later, it may well have stopped there, hustled off as its per screen dropped under $3000 per. (There was only one movie in theaters last weekend with under a $3000 per screen that was on as many as 2000 screens.)

Of Sony's all-time record tying six $20 million opening weekends this year (Benchwarmers was just short with $19.7m), half occurred with no press screenings (plus Benchwarmers), one occurred with limited press screenings (Pink Panther), and their biggest opening (DVC) first screened for press, long lead and short, about 72 hours before release.

Terrible reviews for the aforementioned Da Vinci and Click, The Break-Up and Nacho Libre seemed to have little effect on their openings either.

Meanwhile, out of the bankruptcies of the 90s emerged a different kind of multiplex. There are bigger screens, more screens, and fewer seats. It's what I call the Accordion Multiplex. Every week as the new movies come in, most theaters can accommodate the crowd with as many actual seats as they need, expanding the actual screen count, and contracting in Week 2 or Week 3… or even within opening weekend or week. So when Superman Returns opened last Wednesday, it was on 4 screens at the popular Pacific Grove here in L.A. By Friday, Superman was down to 3 screens, along with 2 for Friday opener The Devil Wears Prada and 2 for Click, holding over from the week before.

Meanwhile, in Century City, Da Vinci, 3Fast 3Furious, and Garfield split time (just screening 2 or 3 times a day each) with each other and Superman, giving Supes a few more screening times in the day.

On Friday, the Grove will have Pirates 2 on 4 screens and still isn't clear about what is coming or going from the rest of the line-up.

The point is, if you want to see Pirates at the Grove late Thursday, you still can get tickets. Like Star Wars III, they will likely expand to as many theaters as they need and sell every ticket they can. Come Friday, there are already a bunch of sold out shows, but at least one screen is currently available for pretty much every time slot of the day.

Does anyone over 30 want to wait in a blocks-long line at a classic movie palace with seating for more than 1000 people for hours to see a movie on opening weekend? Very few. But while easing the intensity of those event screenings, the multiplexes have expanded the opening weekend and also devalued the experience. Convenience leads, it seems to me, to an interest in more convenience. And now, there are complaints about there being unruly crowds at the multiplexes with 300 seat capacities in their individual theaters.

Plus, there is the move of the studios to a flat rate with exhibition and not the old 90/10 and down thing. So the interest of exhibitors to hold a picture over versus jumping for a new movie with a new massive marketing budget isn't the same.

And that is where a movie like The Devil Wears Prada is threatened with making less than it could have. Look at last summer's Monster-In-Law. In its fourth weekend, it made more than $6 million, but its per-screen dropped under $3000… the next week it lost 1076 of its 3025 screens… then 784… then 554… and it was over when it still might have been pretty strong. Wedding Crashers was more fortunate because when it fell under $3000 per screen, it was weekend six, but it was also August and the pressure for screens was a lot less than in June, when Monster-In-Law faced premature death. Crashers did another $30 million after that point.

That's where Monster House and Super Ex-Girlfriend and Miami Vice and Talladega Nights and World Trade Center have an advantage this summer.

The last major element I want to discuss today is the cost of production, which has gone absolutely insane - this year in particular. The last crazy summer for costs was 2003 with Terminator 3, Hulk, Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle, Bad Boys II, Matrix Reloaded and Tomb Raider 2 among some other very overpriced titles. This year, we have at least five summer movies with price tags of more than $150 million. At least.

The increase in production costs and the rise of marketing costs over the last five years, in particular, has increased the opening weekend obsession. It hasn't been a huge part of marketing budgets in a while, but there is minimal media presence for most movies after that first weekend and almost none after weekend two. There are exceptions. But as the pressure to cut marketing costs increases, the ongoing support is often the first thing to go. Again, more emphasis on opening than sustaining. This year, for the first time in a long time, we saw talent doing second week chat shows to keep publicity up on movies like Mission: Impossible 2 and The Break-Up.

The increase in cost has also increased the obsession with getting to the DVD window. And the obsession with getting to the DVD window has increased the need to get to the DVD window.

So we are in a rather inevitable circle jerk. The industry creates a shortened Home Entertainment window which shortens the theatrical window which makes the post-theatrical window look more attractive, at any cost, than it really is. People then blame theatrical.

But the ironic twist is that theatrical - the most expensive film delivery system available - is still remarkably strong and the even more expensive IMAX is being touted as a savior. People are still going to the movies in droves, even with $15 DVDs available in 14 weeks and $10 DVDs available in 20 weeks. But the income is, indeed, being redistributed, even as the industry spends itself into serious danger.

A look at the middle class of movies and my take on the future on Friday…

E Me:

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Week Of April 10, 2006 - List Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 17, 2006 - Review Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 24, 2006 - Overlooked Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 1, 2006 - Mystery Week - Tue / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 8, 2006 - How We Watch Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 15, 2006 - Premature Week - Oscar Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 22, 2006 - B-13 Mon / Inconvenient Wed / Fri
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Week Of June 5, 2006 - 666 Tue / Iraq Doc Wed / Seattle Fri
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Week Of June 26, 2006 - Pirates Mon / Super Again Wed / Fri