Week Of August 7, 2006 - Mon / Wed / Fri

August 7, 2006

We are into August and, for me, that's the time when I start spending inordinate amounts of time seeing movies I can't write about, discussing strategies I can't write about, making plans I can't write about, and wondering why I am not on a beach somewhere for a few weeks.

There is very little actual news though, unfortunately, I suspect we will be in for a few nuclear bombs dropping around town in the next few weeks as execs try to hide the bad news in the slow news cycle.

It's time for re-caps of the summer and of the year, which can be written without any new news to report. Here are some of the headlines to look out for…

TOP TEN 2006 RE-CAP HEADLINES (in alphabetical order)

Animation Becomes A Dominant Cash Machine For Studios, But Risk Is Increasing.

Critics Still Being Kept Out Of Screenings… Movies Still Opening

Documentaries Settle Into Being A Primarily $4 Million & Under Theatrical Business

DVD Revenues For New Movies Slide

Marketers As Movie Studio Chiefs

Stand Alone Studios Are Done… Paramount/CBS Will Suffer Increasingly By The Split And Will Be Forced To Reconstitute Before The Decade Ends

Studio Consolidation Continues

Studios Realize That They Have To Reduce Budgets For Both Production And Marketing

Studios Try To Sell Movies Online

The New Blockbuster Is $200 Million… The New Power Opening Is $50 Million… The New Mid-Range Success Opens Over $20 Million, Tops Out At $60 Million Domestic

What is frustrating for me is that I feel like I have written all of these stories to death already... or maybe I've just talked them to death.

Today, the L.A. Times unleashed a new poll of teenagers, trying to decipher their entertainment spending inclinations. And again, more beating the head against the wall. There is stuff in there that many of us have been writing for years, against the crazy tide of some Traditional Media. And a lot of it is just jibber jabber.

"For example, respondents say that traditional sources such as television advertising and radio airplay still tend to drive their decisions about movies and music more than online networking sites."

Yet, a few paragraphs later… "Despite the technological advances that are changing the way entertainment is delivered and consumed, good old-fashioned word of mouth - with a tech twist, thanks to text messaging - continues to be one of the most important factors influencing the choices that young people make."

Well, duh… and which one is it? (And how horrifying must it have been for the L.A. Times that the "traditional sources" in the first graph didn't include newspapers?)

Trailers and TV spots are the primary drivers of opening weekend. Word of mouth is the primary driver in the second weekends and on from there. Is there some new information out there? Is there any indication of significant Saturday drop off from word of mouth in any release, ever?

More boredom. And again, as with many of these other surveys, the survey appears to have been done online, with participants self-selecting… teenagers self-selecting. And apparently answering very non-specific questions. Has anyone involved with this survey ever spoken to a teenager twice in the same week? Oy.

My favorite part of the poll are the "myths," that were primarily myths the L.A. Times believed, that have been "busted." Many are obvious and somewhat more valid because they are specific questions. But what lunatic thought that kids got their news information primarily from The Daily Show? Have they seen The Daily Show's ratings?

Has anyone at the L.A. Times seen MTV lately? Anyone who has couldn't think MTV is selling a lot of CDs… because there is no more than 2 hours of music videos per day on the network between 8am and midnight.

Does the L.A. Times really believe that over 50% of their over-18ers surveyed vote in elections? Does that match any other polling based on actual elections?

Hell… I'm even bored with beating up on the poor L.A. Times.

Hasn't anyone noticed that New Line is releasing Snakes of a Plane and How To Eat Fried Worms one week apart? Aren't they afraid of the competition between snake-based films?

E Me. What would you be writing about?

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