Week Of October 2, 2006 - Atonement Mon / Wed / Fri

October 6, 2006

It's an odd moment for the independent film world. Somehow, it always feels to me like the Independent Spirit Awards mark the line. If the organization is ready to deal with reality for the first time in years, they should have an "under $10 million" category and an "over $10 million" category and just let the nominating committee decide as they go what is indie and what is not.

I would be okay with a film like Babel or Marie Antoinette, both way too expensive to fit into the current system, being held as ISA contenders… so long as they allow smaller films to have a legitimate opportunity to shine as well. Maybe they need an under $8 million, under $20 million and a heavyweight division. I don't know. But a $15 million studio film can be just as independent minded as $50 million indie.

It's about the independent spirit, right? Not just the price tag.

All six surviving majors (MGM is technically a major, but in such a minor key) have "independent" divisions now. Only one is driven almost exclusively by acquisitions, Sony Classics.

Two of the divisions (Fox Searchlight and Focus Features) have had so much success that they have spin-off divisions (Fox Atomic and Rogue).

Paramount Vantage is the only division run by a former agent who has greenlit more pictures than the studio parent, made by almost his complete list of clients.

Warner Indie is mid-transformation, as it is moving from its awards successful, but somewhat shaken, roots into a new mode.

And Miramax, just a year into its new life under Daniel Battsek, has made acquisitions that are turning out to be very, very smart indeed.

Four of the six Dependents are under new management within the last 18 months.

Three of the six Dependents can greenlight movies over $15 million at will and have made or distributed a few films over $30 million.

After years of people talking about building Dependents based on the Fox Searchlight model, none of them seem to be taking up that approach. John Lesher, in his first year, is spending a lot more per picture at Paramount Vantage than Peter Rice ever has. Miramax is, really a lot more in line with the early days of Miramax at Disney than the Dimension & Oscars-driven machine of a few years ago. Noone really knows what to expect from Warner Indie in future. And Focus was always a bit more effete than Searchlight and seems to be maintaining that course.

Also studio associated, though New Line is not considered an official major, is Bob Berney's Picturehouse, the only division driven first by its association with another production business (HBO Films).

There are now two major true independents, Lionsgate and The Weinstein Company (though TWC is currently distributing through MGM for the sake of some cable money). The Weinstein Company took Dimension with them from Disney… and Lionsgate is, in large part, the new Dimension, doing what Dimension did while at Disney almost as well as the original and heavily emphasizing the horror genre even more than Dimension. Lionsgate has tried, with Eli Roth, to match the power of Miramax's Tarantino and Rodriguez connection. But instead has found gold in Saw and other real crap.

Beyond these companies, there are a half dozen independents who are fighting in the under-$20 million domestic gross target range (First Look. IFC, Magnolia, Samuel Goldwyn/Roadside Attractions, ThinkFilm, The Yari Group) and another five fighting in the under-$5 million range (Zeitgeist, Wellspring, Strand, Palm, New Yorker)… and I am sure I'm forgetting someone. (Sorry. Let me know.) But the point is, we are in a world of indie film that is getting smaller, not larger. And there is less experimentation being done within these companies. Opportunities to pick-up "bigger" films become more commonplace as the bigger companies aim higher than indies traditionally have.

Three-quarters of the way through 2006, the highest grossing indie, domestically, is Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion with $63.3 million. Little Miss Sunshine is chasing that slot with $53.6 million so far. Third, The Hills Have Eyes with $41.8 million. The Illusionist is fourth with $32 million. And Crank did $27.6 million.

There have been thirteen indie titles between $15 million and $25 million. And there are another eleven between $5 million and $15 million.

That's fewer than thirty indie/dependent films (29) that have grossed as much as $5 million through the first nine months of this year… fewer than four a month.

Thirty-eight more titles grossed between $1 million and $5 million. But how many companies want to be in that business? (Basic Instinct II has the distinction of being the lowest grossing film of the year that opened on more than 1010 screens while Goal! The Dream Begins is the lowest grosser of any release by a major this year.)

Among the seventeen films in the million to two million range, there are three Lionsgates, three Sony Classics, two Searchlights, two Picturehouses, a Paramount Classic, a Yari, and a Miramax. That dirty baker's dozen speaks right to the danger zone in indies. They spend enough to get to $1 million… but probably too much to be happy not getting to $2 million. Also in that group are a few pictures (District B13, The Proposition, Kinky Boots) that seemed a lot more commercial than that going in.

For all the power of DVD, we are watching the indie world shrink as it tries to emulate a more commercial sensibility and has more to lose when it takes risks.

Meanwhile, the Weinsteins keep looking for more money and more equilibrium, Lionsgate still hopes for a buyer, and all the other true indies scramble for enough to release their movies on as many as 100 screens.

Tough road.

E Me.

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