Week Of Janiuary 8, 2007 - Mon / Wed / Fri

January 8 , 2007

Lists, lists, lists….

We're at250 critics lists on the MCN compilation this weekend and I figured it is time to divine what I can out of them.

There are 248 films that got votes. 85 of those films were "One Vote Wonders," ranging from 2005 hot titles like Brokeback Mountain and Capote to Guy Madden's only once shown Brand Upon The Brain to current surprises like Rocky Balboa and Flushed Away.

In general, there doesn't seem to be a huge change overall from last year's numbers. Last year, 12 films got to 300 points… this year, 10. Last year, 37 films had at least 100 points… this year, 29.

Rank - Title - # of Votes - Points - Average Vote
1 - United 93 - 138 - 917.5 - 6.649
2 - Queen, The - 150 - 887 - 5.913
3 - Departed, The - 137 - 867 - 6.328
4 - Pan's Labyrinth - 91 - 569.5 - 6.258
5 - Letters From Iwo Jima - 91 - 571 - 6.275
6 - Borat - 94 - 495.5 - 5.271
7 - Little Miss Sunshine - 85 - 460 - 5.412
8 - Babel - 63 - 381.5 - 6.056
9 - Little Children - 62 - 365 - 5.887
10 - Children of Men - 56 - 343.5 - 6.134

11 - Dreamgirls - 51 - 327.5 - 6.422
12 - Half Nelson - 61 - 327 - 5.361
13 - Volver - 54 - 291 - 5.389
14 - Flags of Our Fathers - 50 - 284.5 - 5.69
15 - Army of Shadows - 36 - 278 - 7.722
16 - Death of Mr. Lazarescu - 37 - 266 - 7.189
17 - L'Enfant - 39 - 212 - 5.436
18 - Prairie Home Companion, A - 40 - 202 - 5.05
19 - Casino Royale - 42 - 182.5 - 4.345
20 - Proposition, The - 34 - 157 - 4.618

21 - Inland Empire - 23 - 149 - 6.478
22 - Old Joy - 28 - 148.5 - 5.304
23 - Notes on a Scandal - 30 - 142 - 4.733
24 - Three Times - 20 - 141 - 7.05
25 - Inconvenient Truth, An - 32 - 140 - 4.375
26 - Deliver Us From Evil - 29 - 133.5 - 4.603
27 - Thank You For Smoking - 27 - 118.5 - 4.389
28 - A Scanner Darkly - 17 - 109 - 6.412
29 - Brick - 34 - 107 - 3.147

Only three films this year - United 93, The Queen, The Departed - got votes on more than half the Top Ten lists.

Only three films have an average vote - among films with at least 100 points - of over 7 points or an average vote between 3 and 4. They are Army of Shadows (7.722), The Death of Mr. Lazarescu (7.189), Three Times (7.05).

Seven of the Top Eleven average over 6 points per vote, led by United 93's 6.649 average, then Dreamgirls' 6.422, The Departed's 6.328, Letters From Iwo Jima's 6.275, Pan Lanyrinth's 6.258, Children of Men's 6.134, and Babel's 6.056.

The low average title of the films with 100 points was Brick, with 3.147 points from each of its 34 votes.

The top documentary was An Inconvenient Truth, though the film had a surprisingly narrow lead of just 3 votes and 6.5 points over Deliver Us From Evil. The next two docs are well off the pace - Dave Chappelle's Block Party, Neil Young: Heart of Gold - but at least they got more than 10 votes each. After that it thinned out a lot, as When The Levees Broke, followed by Iraq In Fragments, Dixie Chicks: Shut Up & Sing, 49 Up, and Heart of the Game hit the charts with fewer than 10 of 250 votes apiece.

The top 10 foreign language films are Pan's Labyrinth, Letters From Iwo Jima, Volver, Army of Shadows, Death of Mr. Lazarescu, L'Enfant, Three Times, Apocalypto, Climates, and Battle in Heaven. All of them got at least 10 votes. So much for the ascension of the doc.

The English-language True Indies couldn't crack the Top Ten, though ThinkFilm's Half Nelson is in at #12. The next is First Look's The Proposition at #20. Remarkably, David Lynch's self-distributed Inland Empire is at #21. Kino International's Old Joy is at #22.

Of the Top 29 - 100 pt minimum - the commercial picture looks like this:
#19 - Casino Royale - $160 million
#6 - Borat - $121 million
#3 - The Departed - $121 million
#7 - Little Miss Sunshine - $60 million
#11 - Dreamgirls - $55 million
#14 - Flags Of Our Fathers - $34 million

Speaking of Flags, 23 of the 50 votes for the film were connected by the Top Tenners with Letters From Iwo Jima. Clearly those voters wanted to honor both films, but given the significantly greater number of Letters voters, one has to wonder how much of a free ride Flags got. Only 3 voters gave Flags a #1 by itself and two of those 1-2ed the two films. Letters had 9 stand alone #1s.

Speaking of #1s, United 93 was by far the leader with 27 top votes. Runner up is The Departed with 18 #1s. After that, it's Pan's Labyrinth with 15 and then The Queen with 14. Those represent the top four on the overall chart, so no surprise. But then you jump down to #15, Army Of Shadows, with 13 #1s before bouncing back up to #5, Letters From Iwo Jima with just 9 #1s.

There is good news historically for United 93 fans. We've never seen the #1 film go without an Oscar nomination. None have won, but again, none have missed getting nominated. The one variation on that this year is that in the last three years, our #1 has always been the film getting the most votes. This year, that distinction goes to our #2, The Queen. The difference is only 12 voters, but stats are stats.

The Oscar to Top Ten picture over the last three seasons is…

2003
#1 Lost In Translation
#2 LOTR: Return of The King
#3 Mystic River
#8 Master & Commander
#19 Seabiscuit

2004
#1 Sideways
#2 Million Dollar Baby
#4 The Aviator
#13 Finding Neverland
#16 Ray

2005
#1 Brokeback Mountain
#3 Capote
#4 Good Night, And Good Luck
#7 Crash
#8 Munich

2006?

The Oscar race and the Top Ten chart seem to be in some synch again this year. The films considered by most to be in the Oscar race are all in the Top 11. Taking Foreign Language contender Pan's Labyrinth and broad comedy Borat out, the list is:

1. United 93
2. The Queen
3. The Departed
5. Letters From Iwo Jima
7. Little Miss Sunshine
8. Babel
9. Little Children
10. Children of Men
11. Dreamgirls

I think you are pretty safe betting on five of those nine.

Current Gurus o' Gold voting is for 2, 3, 7, 8, 11.

My personal guess would be 2, 3, 5, 7, 11.

And so 2006 finally comes to a close. (I think we may add a couple of more lists of people who have been on in the past and came in late this year. But not too many and not for a few days.)

As always, Ms. Rooney has done more than her share of the heavy lifting on this annual project. The list might be possible without her, but sanity would not be.

And a shout out to Engin, who has done a list of more than 500 Top 10s each year and seems to have been felled by the flu this year. Get better, pal. We like our charts, but we always love to check out yours as well. You are missed.

On to 2007!

E Me.

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