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Week Of April 4, 2007 - Wed / Fri
April 4, 2007
Back To Reality...
And so, the endless tour finally ends...
I walked into a multiplex last night and I had seen exactly one of the eleven or so titles up on the board. And, amazingly enough, I wasn't feeling like I was missing much. I am curious about The Lookout, which has gotten some outstanding reviews. And I wouldn't mind finding out how stupid Blades of Glory might be. I'm still trying to catch up with Reign Over Me. But aside from that ...
And aside from Grindhouse, there isn't a wide release movie between now and Spider-Man 3 that I am remotely interested in seeing.
And yet, according to Box Office Mojo's year-to-date chart, this is the best first three months of the last five years. The Top Five films in this drive to box office nirvana? 300, Wild Hogs, Ghost Rider, Norbit, Bridge To Terabithia.
Oy.
The ongoing question is whether it matters. My simple take is, "nope."
One major problem in looking back in anger is assuming the intent of the studios releasing movies could foresee the outcome or aren't making an effort. Reign Over Me, Breach, Zodiac, The Namesake, The Lives of Others, The Lookout, Amazing Grace, The Host and even Reno 911!, which Fox really believed would be a comedy event like Borat albeit on a smaller scale, suggest that the distributors are still trying and showing winter/spring ambition.
Warner's obviously hoped that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles would do Ice Age-like business this spring. It won't. And neither will any of the three major animated releases opening within a month of each other this summer with The Simpsons movie to follow. None of the four studios behind any of those movies would make the spring call. Of course, only Sony's Surf's Up and Fox's The Simpsons Movie would be satisfied with Ice-Age numbers, but Surf's Up is tied to summer and The Simpson's Movie is actually in good position to follow far enough behind the rest that it can get the benefit of a breather.
Mr. Brooks, I Could Never Be Your Woman, and Georgia Rule are the only titles on the summer schedule that I see that could really have benefited from a spring release. Maybe Hostel 2, but Grindhouse is in the way. Lionsgate's Away From Her is going to have a hard time getting any traction on May 4, but the same is true right now and they hope to get anti-Spidey biz rolling. Nice movie, but it's no Crash.
I guess my point is that there is no easy answer to a better layout ... this year at least.
One phenomenon I am noticing with amazement is the fast turnaround from Sundance buys. I recall just a couple years ago being yammered at about how a September Toronto buy couldn't be opened for an Oscar run by December. This summer, I count seven films that were bought at Sundance and will be released between May and August.
Waitress - May 2
Once - May 18
Crazy Love - June 1
Clubland - July 6
Son of Rambow - July 20
The Ten - August 3
King of Kong - Aug 17This last summer only three Sundance busy were released during the summer - Wordplay, Quinceanera, and The Night Listener. The first was released in June and the other two in August.
The Night Listener starred Robin Williams and Toni Collette, was on 1370 screens and totaled $10.2 million.
Quinceanera was a niche player that targeted Spanish-speaking markets, was on 96 screens and grossed about $1.7 million.
Wordplay was the big doc buy of Sundance 2006 (no one saw An Inconvenient Truth coming) and ended up with 134 screens and a domestic gross of $3.2 million.
We also have an unusual number of Sundance kick-off films that went in with distribution and will come out in the first half of the year. These include The Namesake, The Last Mimzy, First Snow, Offside, Year of the Dog, Smiley Face, Diggers, Zoo, and Eagle vs Shark, plus films that started elsewhere but used the Sundance launch pad - The Host, Adam's Apples, and The Wind That Shakes The Barley.
And then there is the doc The Prisoner or: How I Planned to Kill Tony Blair, which premiered at Toronto, but went for reshooting when a new participant turned up, didn't get into Sundance because of the Toronto connection which included a purchase by NetFlix, and then premiered in the U.S. at SXSW before rolling out.
There are many ways to read all of this, but my read is that most of these distributors just don't believe in much theatrical potential for most of these films. If you really saw potential, with none of these films having much profile nationally or even in New York and Los Angeles at this point, the potential to find a significant audience and not just a springboard for the quick DVD release is limited.
There are, in this four, some really good movies. And there is always hope for a breakout. Of course, waiting in the wings with no official date yet, is Michael Moore's Sicko, which could easily jump into the summer after premiering at Cannes in a few weeks and, like Fahrenheit 9/11, suck up all the oxygen in the indie room.
But for the bigger companies, like Fox Searchlight, which are spending more than $10 million for their in-house movies, the Sundance buys were pretty cheap product and pushing them through the pipeline and into Home Entertainment seems like a reasonable choice. For Paramount Vantage, which paid over $8 million for Son of Rambow ( a great film), the stakes are higher. But the movie is very tough to market, which along with outbidding some smaller players, is how the film fell to them when stronger Dependents didn't bite.
But what's good for the business? Hmmm ...
E Me.
Week Of April 3, 2006 - Life In the Bubble - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 10, 2006 - List Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 17, 2006 - Review Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 24, 2006 - Overlooked Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 1, 2006 - Mystery Week - Tue / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 8, 2006 - How We Watch Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 15, 2006 - Premature Week - Oscar Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 22, 2006 - B-13 Mon / Inconvenient Wed / Fri
Week Of May 29, 2006 - Wed / Fri
Week Of June 5, 2006 - 666 Tue / Iraq Doc Wed / Seattle Fri
Week Of June 12, 2006 - SIFF Mon / SIFF Wed / Fri
Week Of June 19, 2006 - Cinevegas Mon/Deliver Us Wed/Prada Fri
Week Of June 26, 2006 - Pirates Mon / Super Again Wed / Fri
Week Of July 5, 2006 - Wed
Week Of July 12, 2006 - M. Night Mon | You, Me & Wed | Monster House Fri
Week Of July 17, 2006 - 8 A Year Mon / Water Wed / Revamp Fri
Week Of July 24, 2006 - Comic-Con Mon / Gossip Wed / Fri
Week Of July 31, 2006 - Mel G Mon / Talladega Wed / Fri
Week Of August 7, 2006 - Mon / Wed
Week Of August 14, 2006 - No Column Mon / Wed / Snakes Fri
Week Of August 21, 2006 - Snakey Mon / Anniversary Wed / Scoundrels Fri
Week Of August 28, 2006 - Mon Love / Berloff Wed / Fri
Week Of September 4, 2006 - Thur
Week Of September 11, 2006 - TIFF Mon / Bobby Wed / Fr
Week Of September 18, 2006 - Mon / TIFF 1 Wed / TIFF 2 Fri
Week Of September 25, 2006 - Mon / Wed
Week Of October 2, 2006 - Atonement Mon / Wed / Indie Fri
Week Of October 9, 2006 - Flags Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of October 16, 2006 - Mon / Epagogix Wed
Week Of October 23, 2006 - TCIFF Mon / Wed / Catch A Fri
Week Of October 30, 2006 - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of November 6, 2006 - Mon / Dead Girl Wed / Fri
Week Of November 13, 2006 - Bond Mon / Wed / TomKat Fri
Week Of November 20, 2006 - Mon / Thankful Wed
Week Of November 27, 2006 - Mon / Auteur Wed / Blood D Fri
Week Of December 4, 2006 - Mon / Wed
Week Of December 11, 2006 - Mon / Wed
Week Of December 18, 2006 - Mon / Wed / COM Fri
Week Of December 27, 2006 - Wed / Worst of 2006 Fri
Week Of Janiuary 3, 2007 - Best Of 2006 Wed
Week Of Janiuary 8, 2007 - Mon / COM Book Wed
Week Of January 17, 2007 - Little Red Writing Hood Wed
Week Of January 29, 2007 - Mon
Week Of February 5, 2007 -This Thing We Do Wk - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of February 12, 2007 - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of February 26, 2007 - Rough Oscars Mon / Zodiac Wed / Doc & Foreign Fri
Week Of March 5, 2007 - Mon / Fri
March 14 / March 21/ March 28
