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Week Of April 9, 2007 - Mon / Wed / Fri
April 13, 2007
The Third Annual THB Survey
WHO ARE THE BIGGEST STARS
IN THE WORLD?
(Part One From Wednesday)
THE TOP 20ishAs you will see, there are more than 20 people in this Top 20. And here is why…
It’s frickin’ impossible to do this list right now.
Really, it starts with “What do you do with Ryan Gosling, Rachel McAdams?,” and then starts expanding. Where does Julia Roberts, who has basically been out of the game for three years and is about to jump back in, go? What about Mike Myers, whose been out for four years and is about to come back? Or Jodie Foster, who is two years from Flightplan, but supported Inside Man very effectively last year?
Then there is a growing issue with some of America’s biggest box office stars… the rest of the world. Adam Sandler is a Top Three star in America for sure… but doesn’t sell overseas. Denzel is guaranteed bank at home and a shrug in Japan… but seems to be growing on them “over there.”
Then there is the Ben Stiller issue. His recent films have been huge overseas, but Madagascar was animated and Night At The Museum might as well have been animated. On the other hand, a Will Ferrell movie is generally A WILL FERRELL MOVIE (and those don’t play very well overseas).
And what do you do with Tom Cruise, who hasn’t had a film gross less than $200 million worldwide in this millennium? (One of his lower grossers, Collateral, is Jamie Foxx’s strongest claim to higher box office power.) Or Tom Hanks, who had his biggest grosser ever last summer, but had really only had great success this decade with odd picks, like The Polar Express or co-starring in Catch Me If You Can, though The Terminal did nearly double overseas what it did here.
So… for the group between 10 and 2x, I am instituting a different ranking system. The first ranking, which will be how they are listed, is overall including international. The second ranking will be domestic. And the third ranking will be on potential.
The classic example would be…
x/x/15 Ryan Gosling – He gave the speech at the Indie Spirit Awards… his agents don’t make money and “never will.” The odd part is that he is still in Fracture, which sells like a classic Jaffe/Lansing thriller. If he ever got on the stick and decided to use all of his charm and acting skill to be a movie star, he’d shoot up the charts in a hurry.
So, I am estimating that he could be at 15. But he doesn’t make the Top 20 or even the Top 50 (meaning he’d be worth over $5 million a picture) at this point.
35/30/11. Rachel McAdams (15) - She's only been in one $100 million movie. But no movies she's fronted has opened to less than $12.5 million and she still hasn't made a movie with a budget over $35 million. It's not The Wedding Crashers that screams superstar. It's the $60 million domestic hits that weren't supposed to be - Red Eye and The Family Stone - and her $80 million breakout, The Notebook. She has, by far, the lowest price in the Top 20. This makes her a huge value play and she has every ounce of potential to be the biggest female star since the height of Julia Roberts. That said, she doesn't seem to care much about being a star. She is young, generous of spirit, and just may not want it enough not to become the next Debra Winger.
On the established side…
na/na/6 – Julia Roberts – Anytime anyone drops out for years at a time, their return has no guarantees, other than a lot of media attention. She could be the biggest female star again within two years. Or she might be Susan Sarandon.
na/na/5 - Mike Myers – Crazy is as crazy does. The Austin Powers franchise is one of the great all-time successes. But he seems to have lost his moorings around the same time his marriage fell apart. Who knows why? But he is revving up a new character, also very 60s driven, and we’ll see.
And one more for the road…
40 / 40 / 10 – Sacha Baron Cohen – One movie in, he has the 15th highest grossing film in the world last year, grossing $260 million on a tiny budget for a studio film. But can he do it again? He is very, very talented and he is making good moves, appearing in Talladega Nights and now a cameo in Sweeney Todd. But we are at the very start of this career in terms of Hollywood. And it could go any which way.
THE TOP 21
21 / 14 / even - Russell Crowe – Even with the disaster of A Good Year, he gets the attention that a superstar gets. Maybe American Gangster is the answer. Maybe it’s getting close to being over.20 / 33 / higher - Mark Wahlberg – He would be much higher if his surprisingly popular lower-budget genre films were doing better overseas. But they may well just be a little behind the curve. Wahlberg is turning into one of those actors that Hollywood roots for, which often ends up with the public following with cash in hand.
19 / 11 / even - Nic Cage (21) – Gotta give him Ghost Rider.
18 / 14 / higher - John Travolta (20) – Things slowed down for Johnny in recent years. But with Wild Hogs shocking everyone ($147m domestic so far) and a potential dark horse breakout in Hairspray this summer, the Third Act Of John Travolta may be starting in earnest. No superstar has ever been deader and able to recover as well or as often.
17 / 30 / higher - Reese Witherspoon (16) – Will this budding movie star be slowed to a crawl by her urge to do better work? She’s 31, difficult, and one of the best, most flexible actresses in the game. But what choices will she make?
16 / 12 / higher - Jodie Foster (19) – The highest ranking woman, she does great business home and away. She just doesn’t work that much and is drawn to less commercial projects. She’ll make an Oscar run in Neil Jordan’s The Brave One, but don’t expect big box office there. The potential to rise is all in her hands.
15 / 20 / even - Steve Martin (7) – After a great commercial run, he seems ready to slow down a bit.
14 / 25 / even - Denzel Washington (11) – He’s consistent. And with Tony Scott, he’s good foreign. But not without. And not huge numbers. But always a good bet.
13 / 8 / higher - Matt Damon (26) – Bourne, Ocean’s, and last year, The Departed. Damon can’t guarantee $100 million for every movie he picks. The Good Shepherd and Syriana were both serious and serious disappointments at the box office. But he has the potential to fill Hanks’ everyman shoes in a way no one else, except perhaps Gosling, seems to have built into their DNA.
12 / 13 / higher - Eddie Murphy (10) – Norbit and Dreamgirls make eight titles over $150m worldwide this decade, plus another three animated films over $300 million, with Shrek The Third coming and a high concept comedy, Starship Dave, after that. At 46, the guy is still a very big star.
11 / 7 / lower - Keanu Reeves (9) – The Lake House overperformed. But is his action run over, pushing him down past 25 in a hurry? He gets a pass this year because the muscle is still there, available to studios.
And finally...
E Me.
Week Of April 3, 2006 - Life In the Bubble - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 10, 2006 - List Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 17, 2006 - Review Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 24, 2006 - Overlooked Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 1, 2006 - Mystery Week - Tue / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 8, 2006 - How We Watch Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 15, 2006 - Premature Week - Oscar Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 22, 2006 - B-13 Mon / Inconvenient Wed / Fri
Week Of May 29, 2006 - Wed / Fri
Week Of June 5, 2006 - 666 Tue / Iraq Doc Wed / Seattle Fri
Week Of June 12, 2006 - SIFF Mon / SIFF Wed / Fri
Week Of June 19, 2006 - Cinevegas Mon/Deliver Us Wed/Prada Fri
Week Of June 26, 2006 - Pirates Mon / Super Again Wed / Fri
Week Of July 5, 2006 - Wed
Week Of July 12, 2006 - M. Night Mon | You, Me & Wed | Monster House Fri
Week Of July 17, 2006 - 8 A Year Mon / Water Wed / Revamp Fri
Week Of July 24, 2006 - Comic-Con Mon / Gossip Wed / Fri
Week Of July 31, 2006 - Mel G Mon / Talladega Wed / Fri
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Week Of August 14, 2006 - No Column Mon / Wed / Snakes Fri
Week Of August 21, 2006 - Snakey Mon / Anniversary Wed / Scoundrels Fri
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Week Of September 11, 2006 - TIFF Mon / Bobby Wed / Fr
Week Of September 18, 2006 - Mon / TIFF 1 Wed / TIFF 2 Fri
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Week Of October 2, 2006 - Atonement Mon / Wed / Indie Fri
Week Of October 9, 2006 - Flags Mon / Wed / Fri
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Week Of October 23, 2006 - TCIFF Mon / Wed / Catch A Fri
Week Of October 30, 2006 - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of November 6, 2006 - Mon / Dead Girl Wed / Fri
Week Of November 13, 2006 - Bond Mon / Wed / TomKat Fri
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Week Of December 18, 2006 - Mon / Wed / COM Fri
Week Of December 27, 2006 - Wed / Worst of 2006 Fri
Week Of Janiuary 3, 2007 - Best Of 2006 Wed
Week Of Janiuary 8, 2007 - Mon / COM Book Wed
Week Of January 17, 2007 - Little Red Writing Hood Wed
Week Of January 29, 2007 - Mon
Week Of February 5, 2007 -This Thing We Do Wk - Mon / Wed / Fri
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Week Of February 26, 2007 - Rough Oscars Mon / Zodiac Wed / Doc & Foreign Fri
Week Of March 5, 2007 - Mon / Fri
March 14 / March 21/ March 28
Week Of April 4, 2007 - Wed / Grindhouse Fri
