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Week Of August 6, 2007 - Wed / Fri
August 10, 2007
New Line, Same As The Old Line
People keep repeating the same tired and obsessive comments about how Shaye has f-ed up by distancing himself from Peter Jackson and how The Last Mimzy sucked and did poorly at the box office.
Well, I agree that Shaye and New Line mis-stepped badly by allowing the PJ situation to become personal. It is bad on every level. And make no mistake, the straw that broke the camel's back on both sides was personal. But one movie is not the difference between New Line's future success or failure.
I never did see The Last Mimzy, though people I know who I trust thought it was pretty decent for what it was. However, it was a marketing disaster on its face. There was no way to sell it. No hook.
But Russell Schwartz was in danger long before March and kept his job for months after Mimzy opened weak. (Need I mention that Mimzy opened to $2.5 million more than Adam Sandler in Reign Over Me and $6.5 million more than Oscar hero Terrence Howard's first post-Oscar drama, Pride? Or that Mimzy significantly outgrossed NL's two other recent efforts for the kids' market, Hoot and How To Eat Fried Worms.)
Yes, there are product problems, but other studios have opened worse movies to better numbers. Flatly put, Hairspray was New Line's first $20 million opening in just a week under two years, since Wedding Crashers. Opening movies is what a marketing department is there to do. That, and complaining about the crap they have to sell.
There is a problem at the studio in that Hairspray will also be the only film to gross over $60 million domestic in those two years since Wedding Crashers. But then again, New Line is not in the $100 million (or $300 million, as we saw twice this summer) production business. For all the talk of the perceived failure of Snakes on a Plane, it will make money for the studio.
The studio went 4 for 10 on profitability last year, 5 for 10 the year before, and only 3 for 10 in 2004, the year in which most of the Return of the King money hit the studio purse. But the big difference between 2004 and 2005 and last year is that in both years, the movies that hit more than covered the relatively small losses from the other films. Last year, this was not the case.
This year, New Line is on the way with Hairspray, hopeful about Rush Hour 3 (could come up short), Shoot 'Em Up, and most importantly, The Golden Compass, which will define the relationship of the company with oddparent Time-Warner for years to come.
Patrick Goldstein does a decent job covering the state of the studio in a piece that runs today. Bob Shaye doesn't attempt a mea culpa at all in the piece. He leaves some of that lifting to Toby Emmerich, the guy who would traditionally be next in line for the boot if The Golden Compass comes up short.
The most interesting question coming from the coverage of New Line and Shaye these days is, "Who is pulling Nikki Finke's string?" I certainly can't imagine that Nikki is spinning her obsessive web o' Shaye-bashing herself (has she ever had an original idea?), unless perhaps Shaye refused her phone call. (New Line is one of the companies in town that do the best job of staying away from the craziest in the journalism ranks.)
I would guess that it is some agent or crisis manager with Bob Shaye high on their personal shit list (not a small group) or some old school guy who wants to take control of New Line for Time-Warner. And with the great success of Warner Indie, you can see why Time-Warner would want to control yet another production arm and take greater control of Picturehouse to boot!
Yet the question of Nikki's puppetmaster on this one is not interesting enough to be any more interesting than a quick mention in a gossip blog anyway... none of this really gets interesting until the Friday numbers for The Golden Compass are reported internally at the studio.
Ironically, New Line is a truly old school business. The new model has the dozen-plus privately funded production companies funding the kind of under-$20m budget movies that have been New Line's signature since the beginning and the distributors, like New Line, simply making money on marketing and distribution.
The greater irony? It is the expenditures on the potentially big movies, Rush Hour 3 and The Golden Compass, that put the company at the most risk. Hairspray and a success with Shoot 'Em Up alone could throw off enough profit for the studio to cover the losses on all and any of the other pictures that failed. But the $150 million of Rush Hour 3 and potentially $200 million on The Golden Compass could be boat sinkers. Divisions like Screen Gems, which is really an off-shoot of the New Line concept, don't have movies that cost over $20 million and simply sell the crap out of them. Good, bad, or indifferent, it's "make it for a price and sell, sell, sell."
And that is the rub of Lord of the Rings. It was a huge win for everyone. But it created a hunger that this company was never intended to satisfy. And if Shaye and Lynne exit after next year, it will be that success that really brings them down, not the failures.
Ya gotta love Hollywood!
E Me.
Week Of April 3, 2006 - Life In the Bubble - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 10, 2006 - List Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 17, 2006 - Review Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 24, 2006 - Overlooked Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 1, 2006 - Mystery Week - Tue / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 8, 2006 - How We Watch Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 15, 2006 - Premature Week - Oscar Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 22, 2006 - B-13 Mon / Inconvenient Wed / Fri
Week Of May 29, 2006 - Wed / Fri
Week Of June 5, 2006 - 666 Tue / Iraq Doc Wed / Seattle Fri
Week Of June 12, 2006 - SIFF Mon / SIFF Wed / Fri
Week Of June 19, 2006 - Cinevegas Mon/Deliver Us Wed/Prada Fri
Week Of June 26, 2006 - Pirates Mon / Super Again Wed / Fri
Week Of July 5, 2006 - Wed
Week Of July 12, 2006 - M. Night Mon | You, Me & Wed | Monster House Fri
Week Of July 17, 2006 - 8 A Year Mon / Water Wed / Revamp Fri
Week Of July 24, 2006 - Comic-Con Mon / Gossip Wed / Fri
Week Of July 31, 2006 - Mel G Mon / Talladega Wed / Fri
Week Of August 7, 2006 - Mon / Wed
Week Of August 14, 2006 - No Column Mon / Wed / Snakes Fri
Week Of August 21, 2006 - Snakey Mon / Anniversary Wed / Scoundrels Fri
Week Of August 28, 2006 - Mon Love / Berloff Wed / Fri
Week Of September 4, 2006 - Thur
Week Of September 11, 2006 - TIFF Mon / Bobby Wed / Fr
Week Of September 18, 2006 - Mon / TIFF 1 Wed / TIFF 2 Fri
Week Of September 25, 2006 - Mon / Wed
Week Of October 2, 2006 - Atonement Mon / Wed / Indie Fri
Week Of October 9, 2006 - Flags Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of October 16, 2006 - Mon / Epagogix Wed
Week Of October 23, 2006 - TCIFF Mon / Wed / Catch A Fri
Week Of October 30, 2006 - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of November 6, 2006 - Mon / Dead Girl Wed / Fri
Week Of November 13, 2006 - Bond Mon / Wed / TomKat Fri
Week Of November 20, 2006 - Mon / Thankful Wed
Week Of November 27, 2006 - Mon / Auteur Wed / Blood D Fri
Week Of December 4, 2006 - Mon / Wed
Week Of December 11, 2006 - Mon / Wed
Week Of December 18, 2006 - Mon / Wed / COM Fri
Week Of December 27, 2006 - Wed / Worst of 2006 Fri
Week Of Janiuary 3, 2007 - Best Of 2006 Wed
Week Of Janiuary 8, 2007 - Mon / COM Book Wed
Week Of January 17, 2007 - Little Red Writing Hood Wed
Week Of January 29, 2007 - Mon
Week Of February 5, 2007 -This Thing We Do Wk - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of February 12, 2007 - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of February 26, 2007 - Rough Oscars Mon / Zodiac Wed / Doc & Foreign Fri
Week Of March 5, 2007 - Mon / Fri
March 14 / March 21/ March 28
Week Of April 4, 2007 - Wed / Grindhouse Fri
Week Of April 9, 2007 - Indie Distirbution Mon / Star Ranking Wed / Top 20 Fri
Week Of April 16, 2007 - Mon / Piaf Wed
Week Of April 23, 2007 - Mon / Tribeca Wed / Costner Fri
Week Of April 30, 2007 - Spider Mon
Week Of May 7, 2007 - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 14, 2007 - 10 Thing Studios Don't Want Wed / Fri
Week Of May 21, 2007 - Mon / Pirates Fri
Week Of May 28, 2007 - Knocked Up Friday
Week Of June 4, 2007 - Hostel 2 Mon / Ocean's Wed / Seattle Fri
Week Of June 11, 2007 - Sopranos Mon
Week Of June 18, 2007 - Mon / Sicko Wed
Week Of July 2, 2007 - Xanadu Fri
Week Of July 9, 2007 - Mon / Hairspray Fri
Week Of July 23, 2007 - Bourne Mon / Superbad Wed
Week Of July 30, 2007 - Shoot Em Up Mon / Fri
