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October 3, 2007 - American Gangster
October 10, 2007
Confessions of a New Convert
I tend to be an “early adopter,” but not an “innovator.”
I am always interested in new technology and ideas, but I am not really interested in adding more worthless electronics to the pile I have in my closet. There is no avoiding it sometimes, and I don’t regret buying an iPaq, but once out of my 20s, I stopped buying gray market electronics from Asia, as I did when I had the earliest portable DVD players (after waiting longer than some to buy a home player… the album that got me in was Sting’s The Dream of The Blue Turtles.)
I am happy to invest in something that will last in value for as little three years, about the lifespan of a computer in this era. I think of it as a kind of lease on pleasure. If something costs $1000 and is going to give me pleasure for three years, I realize that even if the technology fades, $6 a week may make it a bargain until the next thing comes along.
Recently, after years of resistance, I decided to make the hi-def leap. I have been writing about the future of how we engage media for years, but I have to say, in just a couple of months, this experience has been a head turner.
First, the motive to flip was, as it has been the last two years, NFL football season. The entire range of games was available in HD and man, when I saw screens in restaurants and bars, it looked great. And there were tools being built by DirecTV that enhanced the experience even further for HD viewers.
But I had estimated that a leap into HD would be a $10,000 to $12,000 investment in televisions, new DVRs that still didn’t work right as recently as last year, installation, increased satellite bills, etc. Watching games more intensely wasn’t worth that kind of investment. And each year, the TVs improved, so who was to say that a purchase would not, unlike a traditional high-quality TV, make me feel like I was behind the wave after spending all that money.
There is a line when a new technology reached a standard that makes early adopters feel at home. The only thing that has really changed in CDs since they first launched is the players. And now, the iPod is radically changing that technology… and evolving every year.
There are people who feel they have to have the latest toy right NOW every time the new hot item arrives. The iPod, then the color iPod, then the video iPod, the tiny iPod, and now the big screen iPod and the iPhone have kept the party interesting in every iteration. And when Apple delivers the 80gig big screen iPod with or without a phone, it really may change the world a little again.
What fascinates me, however, is how one technology drives the others. In the case of the iPhone, after resisting that must-have impulse with the help of an upgraded Blackberry (not the Curve), I now find myself using the web browser on my Blackberry more and more often as it now works a million times better. And now, thanks to Blackberry, I am more interested in the iPhone again because of its superior web browsing.
That’s how it often works. The “must have” burns bright and then out. But when an important idea settles in, it can drive real change.
But right now, it seems to me that Blu-Ray and Hi-Def DVD to be more in danger of becoming nothing but passing technologies even more quickly and quietly than I ever thought.
But I am getting ahead of myself…
Jumping into the hi-def TV world has become extraordinarily easy.
I decided that plasma was my choice after weeks and weeks of reading reviews and reports. But I didn’t think that I would be buying plasma because of the price. Simply replacing my excellent Sony 36” with a screen of similar size seemed silly. But prices were listing on on-line reviews in the $6000 range for a 60” plasma. There were Sony projection HDTVs around the $2000 mark, but that was clearly an inferior technology. Still, maybe it would do the job for a couple of years.
After hedging and visiting retailers and hedging and visiting retailers for a month-plus, I became convinced that a no-name brand plasma was the best choice. The reviews were pretty good. And really, how bad could it be and how would I know. A trip to Costco offered a surprise, however. There was a Panasonic of almost the same size for the same cost as the no-name… and it had been highly rated when it came out last year… and it cost about a third of what it was being sold for when it was released, again, a year ago.
Sold!
DirecTV was in my living room in less than 48 hours with an HD-DVR, a new satellite, and free installation. I’ve never seen service like that from any similar service, whether DSL, cable modems, regular DirecTV, phone, etc, etc, etc.
When the left side of my week-old plasma went dead, repair men were in my living room, carting off the TV, within 24 hours. And had it returned, repaired, in 48 hours. Again, someone was pushing the customer service envelope to make this transition easy and very attractive.
And that is when it got interesting.
When you have DirecTV service without HD, you have no idea how extensive HD programming has become. DirecTV has a program to try to have 100 HD stations by the end of the year. HBO, Cinemax, Showtime, Starz, and The Movie Channel all have dedicated HD channels. The Big Four broadcast networks, the ESPNs, the Turner nets, USA, A&E, The Smithsonian Channel, The History Channel, Bravo, Discovery, TLC, Science, and The Weather Channel are among the nets with regular HD output. Universal even has its own HD channel just for films and old TV shows. Mark Cuban has three HD channels on this system.
That’s a lot of content. And it’s growing.
But it’s more than that.
A technological improvement in what our televisions look like is one thing. The issue for the filmed entertainment industry – TV and films – is revenue generation.
I was horrified this week to run into double-disc DVD packages at Target with relatively recent titles being sold for as little as two films for $5.50. Pretty recent studio releases on DVD for $2.75 a pop!
Perhaps the logic is that DVD is short term distribution method and that people will have to reinvest in digital ownership, so they better get all the revenue they can now… buying CDs before the iPod arrived.
But here is the dangerous part of that. When my HD-DVR arrived, it had room for 30 hours of HD and/or 100 hours of regular TV. I have never had or felt the need for a DVR with more than 70 hours before.
But I never had the opportunity to, essentially, own movies that I was already paying for with my monthly satellite fees in the very highest quality format. Moreover, 30 hours for a DVR just wasn’t enough and there was no way I was going to DVR a show on, say, NBC, in non-HD when it was being shown in HD. Crazy. Counterintuitive.
Now I knew years ago that I could order a custom kit DVR on the web that would have 100 hours or 200 hours or 300 hours of space for a price. Basically, clever geeks were getting bigger hard drives and building them back into the boxes or into boxed extensions. But it wasn’t really cheap and why did I need more than 70 hours of space?
But again, like my iPhone interest being reinvigorated by improved Blackberry technology, the need for more than 30 hours and no options from DirecTV – which has become anti-Tivo in recent years, but is now dealing with them to upgrade their in-house DVRs – I sought a better answer. And I found it on the web. There is a port on the DirecTV DVR into which you can attach a hard drive that replaces the DVR hard drive.
At the same time, the cost of memory is dropping like a stone. I bought a 750 gig external hard drive for under $200 and suddenly, I had at least 120 hours of hi-def DVR space. A few weeks later, I have 40 hi-def movies on my DVR and a slight regret that I didn’t spend a little more and get a 2 terabyte hard drive because I don’t want to dump any of the films anytime soon… and I have filled about two-thirds of the drive, leaving about 30 or 40 hours of hi-def DVR space. If I had that big a hard drive, would I really ever need more than 100 movies in my library with new product coming over the HD satellite every day? And why would I ever want the clutter of discs in my house again?
But it gets weirder…
I would have bought a lot of these movies on Blu-Ray or HD-DVD. (I actually bought a Blu-ray, but that’s a different discussion.) The Silence of The Lambs, All That Jazz, O Brother, Where Art Thou?, Taxi Driver, Blazing Saddles, 48 Hours, The Princess Bride, Manhunter, Bird, Running On Empty, Election, Garp, etc, etc, etc… And most of the new movies hitting the pay networks from studios are on HD as well.
Then you go to the tiny hi-def sections of retailers and you realize… almost everything you could buy will come up on your TV for the price you are already paying. And no one can watch all of that!
My hard drive expansion cost about the same amount as a half dozen Blu-Ray dvds. And I now “own” 40 films. And they look great. And I don’t have to distinguish between buying Blu-Ray of HD-DVD for a second. All I have to do to see, say, Transformers in hi-def without buying new hardware and a proprietary disc is to wait another 4 or 5 months after it arrives in HD-DVD. That or to buy a machine and rent from NetFlix or Blockbuster until I can have digital ownership next spring or summer.
Worse, there are barely 200 titles in either format available. So for instance, All That Jazz, is not available in hi-def except via my satellite. And now, I have it. So why do I need to buy a player and a lot of new DVDs?
Blu-ray and HD-DVD are already where satellite radio finds itself. Worse, actually. The longer people live without a new technology and find that they don’t miss it, the less likely they are to invest in it. Obviously, the $150 Blu-ray or HD-DVD player will bring in new hardware buyers, especially since the players will play older DVDs. But we are, right now, crossing into the media era of DVR obsession. DirecTV may not come out with a 200 hour hi-def DVR next year. But 100 hours - or at least 70 hours to match the primary hour-count for non-HD DVRs now - seems inevitable in the immediate future.
I love seeing Blazing Saddles in hi-def. It looks great. And it is still a great movie. But I have zero reason to pay $29.95 to buy it now.
Once you get used to watching hi-def, you won’t be happy without it. That’s great. But if Blu-Ray and HD-DVD don’t turn the corner in the next year, they may never make it. If they can narrow the fight and have one ubiquitous format, there is a chance at a 5-year run or so… and even that is already endangered.
Meanwhile, much as I am loving the hi-def and the big screen, it is not a theatrical experience. It is much better than conventional TV… but it ain’t a movie. TV is something in your home. And movies are in a place with strangers. Obvious as that is, it is the core nature of the variation in experience.
In the end, it reminds me of the person who has been victimized all of their life and goes to therapy and learns that they need to assert themselves… and for that first year, they assert themselves so much that they are a pain in the f-ing butt! It comes back to the middle for most people. But in an industry like this one, excess in chasing audiences might well become an irreversible trend. It’s tough to close that barn door after the horses have escaped. It’s hard to sell something that is not properly targeted. And while there will always be money to be made in movies, there will also be money to be lost. Managing internal expectations becomes more important every day… and the one thing no one wants to think too much about.
Time to think about it... before there's no time left.
Week Of April 3, 2006 - Life In the Bubble - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 10, 2006 - List Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 17, 2006 - Review Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 24, 2006 - Overlooked Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
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Week Of May 8, 2006 - How We Watch Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 15, 2006 - Premature Week - Oscar Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 22, 2006 - B-13 Mon / Inconvenient Wed / Fri
Week Of May 29, 2006 - Wed / Fri
Week Of June 5, 2006 - 666 Tue / Iraq Doc Wed / Seattle Fri
Week Of June 12, 2006 - SIFF Mon / SIFF Wed / Fri
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March 14 / March 21/ March 28
Week Of April 4, 2007 - Wed / Grindhouse Fri
Week Of April 9, 2007 - Indie Distirbution Mon / Star Ranking Wed / Top 20 Fri
Week Of April 16, 2007 - Mon / Piaf Wed
Week Of April 23, 2007 - Mon / Tribeca Wed / Costner Fri
Week Of April 30, 2007 - Spider Mon
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Week Of May 21, 2007 - Mon / Pirates Fri
Week Of May 28, 2007 - Knocked Up Friday
Week Of June 4, 2007 - Hostel 2 Mon / Ocean's Wed / Seattle Fri
Week Of June 11, 2007 - Sopranos Mon
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Week Of July 2, 2007 - Xanadu Fri
Week Of July 9, 2007 - Mon / Hairspray Fri
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Week Of August 20, 2007 - Mon / 10 Year Wed / Fri
Week Of August 27, 2007 - Young Frankenstein - Mon / Wed
September 5, 2007 - The Little Mermaid
September 19, 2007 - Who Censors The Censors?
September 26, 2007 - Movies Based On Movies
October 1, 2007 - Attack Of The Traditional Media Blogs
