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November 21, 2007 - Thanks 11, 2007
Strike Hard
In the WGA release rejecting the waiver requests for the HFPA and AMPAS awards show, only one thing was really interesting to me...
"The Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences had asked for a waiver to use clips from movies and past Academy Award shows which the WGA rejected."
So... the position is that WGA has the right to stop these shows from using clips? That is interesting. And, of course, makes the WGA position all the more problematic.
I pray that I am wrong about the future of this strike, because my fear that the WGA is now moving towards creating enough internal dissension that the union will be forced to settle unfavorably around March, if not earlier. That would be tragic. And even more so because it will make it very hard for SAG to hold firm… which is clearly why Alan Rosenberg is so aggressively being in-house counsel to the WGA.
I am okay with the idea of StrikeTV.com… but the big problem is that if it is a financial failure – and a lot of people with the money to make it even modestly successful have a stake in its failure – it becomes another yoke around the WGA’s negotiating neck.
And that, again, is the trouble with all this showboating is that it is – as any cocaine addicted celebrity can explain – very, very hard to keep going. And when the noise lowers, the perception is that a lull is occurring, whether it is or is not. It doesn’t requite an AMPTP conspiracy.
Most importantly, the only significant threat WGA has over AMPTP remains the one it had from the start… not working. As disinterested as the AMPTP appears, as others have pointed out, a lot of the force majeur issues are six weeks, not four … which means that there was NEVER any chance of this strike ending – after starting Nov 1 – before the end of the holidays.
So this is my new guess. The deal that will end up being signed, unless the WGA strike ends up being in tandem with a SAG summer strike, will be on the table from the AMPTP by January 18. And they will not move off of that offer without a combined strike.
Finally… waivers.
If waivers are signed for by the Weinstein Company, Lionsgate, and/or any other companies of any size, it will be a matter of fiduciary responsibility for the deal to be better for those companies than the eventual AMPTP deal, whatever that is. So, with the assumption that the strike will be over in less than a year and that whatever deal gets done ends up ruling the industry, there is nothing at stake – except politically – in companies signing deals, but there is a lot at stake for WGA.
No movies made during a strike of less than a year will be theatrically or post-theatrically released within the strike period. So the studios that will eventually distribute these films theatrically and/or on DVD, have choices. They can fund companies that have “individual” deals with and handshake agreement that the movies will be sold to the majors in the end. Or they can hardline a company like the Weinstein Co and refuse to do DVD distribution – at least in this moment – for any of the films made under these interim agreements… which would pretty much make it impossible for the films to be funded.
As for TV, the Weinsteins are, at this point, almost exclusively in reality TV and Lionsgate is basically in cable narrative and reality programs only. I will be thrilled to have a season of Weeds to watch this summer and maybe the situation for staff on Project Runway will be improved somehow… but this is not industry shifting stuff.
I wish it was more complex, but really… what is the future of any of these distractions? The are two “most powerful entertainment sites” of the moment, MySpace and YouTube/Google. The first is owned by NewsCorp. The second is independent and looking for a competitive advantage as the networks individuate their web strategies. But how many will watch how many episodes of “The Place We Work” on Google, funded for a while by writers and actors trying to do the right thing?
It could get interesting. If I were a money guy who wasn’t worried about ever working with the studios, I would consider funding a "season” of ten 30-minute episodes at $250k apiece – or even $500k - in a hurry. That’s about a third the going rate. The revenue from DVD alone could easily cover one such “season” with some name talent and a quality show… assuming the show could find decent DVD distribution. But even sold on TV like K-Tel, if the show was really good, would work… it’s only about 500,000 units from profit.
But this is not The Future.
Deficit Financing, like all other reasons why the studio business remains a closed oligopoly, is real. Dropping $5 million is a lot better than dropping $15 million on a show that really doesn’t work. But do it a dozen times and it starts feeling like real money!
You know, there is nothing wrong with the machine being destroyed. The world would go on. It would look a lot more like Europe, where movies are made for under $15 million most of the time and television is produced for a fraction of what we spend here. And part of my sense of the future is that the business will be heading there all too soon anyway, thanks to stratification and the natural evolution of the Ownership Era. But this means, obviously, less money for writers and all other people on the food chain.
Is this what the WGA is hoping to achieve?
Of course not.
And this is the trouble with the rage over this labor conflict. Angry as writers are - understandably - about their often less-than-attractive position in this town, the abiding urge for most is still to feed at the trough and to feed as well as they can. The cash machine may be disrespectful and diminishing of the talent absolutely critical to success, but that foolishness inures to the benefit of writers as well, if not with fair equanimity.
It’s true… Castro is still living in the lavish buildings built by the capitalists against whom he led the revolt. But the people are also still driving a lot of 50 year old cars with homemade replacement parts.
I can respect the urge to burn down the town… so long as you really want to see it burn. And I can respect wanting to fight within the lines, doing the best you can and being aggressive in seeking that answer. But the middle? There are few things more dangerous than a disingenuous revolution. In the end, everyone pays for it.
Week Of April 3, 2006 - Life In the Bubble - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 10, 2006 - List Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 17, 2006 - Review Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of April 24, 2006 - Overlooked Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 1, 2006 - Mystery Week - Tue / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 8, 2006 - How We Watch Week - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 15, 2006 - Premature Week - Oscar Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 22, 2006 - B-13 Mon / Inconvenient Wed / Fri
Week Of May 29, 2006 - Wed / Fri
Week Of June 5, 2006 - 666 Tue / Iraq Doc Wed / Seattle Fri
Week Of June 12, 2006 - SIFF Mon / SIFF Wed / Fri
Week Of June 19, 2006 - Cinevegas Mon/Deliver Us Wed/Prada Fri
Week Of June 26, 2006 - Pirates Mon / Super Again Wed / Fri
Week Of July 5, 2006 - Wed
Week Of July 12, 2006 - M. Night Mon | You, Me & Wed | Monster House Fri
Week Of July 17, 2006 - 8 A Year Mon / Water Wed / Revamp Fri
Week Of July 24, 2006 - Comic-Con Mon / Gossip Wed / Fri
Week Of July 31, 2006 - Mel G Mon / Talladega Wed / Fri
Week Of August 7, 2006 - Mon / Wed
Week Of August 14, 2006 - No Column Mon / Wed / Snakes Fri
Week Of August 21, 2006 - Snakey Mon / Anniversary Wed / Scoundrels Fri
Week Of August 28, 2006 - Mon Love / Berloff Wed / Fri
Week Of September 4, 2006 - Thur
Week Of September 11, 2006 - TIFF Mon / Bobby Wed / Fr
Week Of September 18, 2006 - Mon / TIFF 1 Wed / TIFF 2 Fri
Week Of September 25, 2006 - Mon / Wed
Week Of October 2, 2006 - Atonement Mon / Wed / Indie Fri
Week Of October 9, 2006 - Flags Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of October 16, 2006 - Mon / Epagogix Wed
Week Of October 23, 2006 - TCIFF Mon / Wed / Catch A Fri
Week Of October 30, 2006 - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of November 6, 2006 - Mon / Dead Girl Wed / Fri
Week Of November 13, 2006 - Bond Mon / Wed / TomKat Fri
Week Of November 20, 2006 - Mon / Thankful Wed
Week Of November 27, 2006 - Mon / Auteur Wed / Blood D Fri
Week Of December 4, 2006 - Mon / Wed
Week Of December 11, 2006 - Mon / Wed
Week Of December 18, 2006 - Mon / Wed / COM Fri
Week Of December 27, 2006 - Wed / Worst of 2006 Fri
Week Of Janiuary 3, 2007 - Best Of 2006 Wed
Week Of Janiuary 8, 2007 - Mon / COM Book Wed
Week Of January 17, 2007 - Little Red Writing Hood Wed
Week Of January 29, 2007 - Mon
Week Of February 5, 2007 -This Thing We Do Wk - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of February 12, 2007 - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of February 26, 2007 - Rough Oscars Mon / Zodiac Wed / Doc & Foreign Fri
Week Of March 5, 2007 - Mon / Fri
March 14 / March 21/ March 28
Week Of April 4, 2007 - Wed / Grindhouse Fri
Week Of April 9, 2007 - Indie Distirbution Mon / Star Ranking Wed / Top 20 Fri
Week Of April 16, 2007 - Mon / Piaf Wed
Week Of April 23, 2007 - Mon / Tribeca Wed / Costner Fri
Week Of April 30, 2007 - Spider Mon
Week Of May 7, 2007 - Mon / Wed / Fri
Week Of May 14, 2007 - 10 Thing Studios Don't Want Wed / Fri
Week Of May 21, 2007 - Mon / Pirates Fri
Week Of May 28, 2007 - Knocked Up Friday
Week Of June 4, 2007 - Hostel 2 Mon / Ocean's Wed / Seattle Fri
Week Of June 11, 2007 - Sopranos Mon
Week Of June 18, 2007 - Mon / Sicko Wed
Week Of July 2, 2007 - Xanadu Fri
Week Of July 9, 2007 - Mon / Hairspray Fri
Week Of July 23, 2007 - Bourne Mon / Superbad Wed
Week Of July 30, 2007 - Shoot Em Up Mon / Fri
Week Of August 6, 2007 - Wed / New Line Fri
Week Of August 13, 2007 - Macho Fri
Week Of August 20, 2007 - Mon / 10 Year Wed / Fri
Week Of August 27, 2007 - Young Frankenstein - Mon / Wed
September 5, 2007 - The Little Mermaid
September 19, 2007 - Who Censors The Censors?
September 26, 2007 - Movies Based On Movies
October 1, 2007 - Attack Of The Traditional Media Blogs
October 3, 2007 - American Gangster
October 10, 2007 - Confessions Of A New Convert
October 17, 2007 - A Catered Affair - Out of Town
October 31, 2007 - Alias: Cyrano
November 7, 2007 - Those Who Can't Negotiate, Strike
